**Persistent energy-driven inflation pressures from the Middle East conflict, combined with resilient euro area growth, are anchoring trader expectations for further ECB tightening by December 2026.** The September 10 decision raised the deposit facility rate by 25 basis points to 2.50%, its second hike of the year, as headline inflation reached 3.3% in August amid elevated oil and gas prices. Updated staff projections kept 2026 inflation at 3.0% while lifting 2027 and 2028 forecasts, signaling that price pressures will remain above the 2% target longer than previously anticipated. Stronger-than-expected GDP growth, upward revisions to 2026–2027 outlooks, and limited evidence of second-round effects so far have led multiple banks to forecast an additional 25 basis point move at the December meeting. This consensus on a modest further increase reflects the Governing Council’s data-dependent approach and the ongoing geopolitical risks that continue to shape near-term policy pricing.
Eksperimental na AI-generated summary na nire-reference ang Polymarket data. Hindi ito trading advice at wala itong papel sa kung paano nire-resolve ang market na ito. · Na-update25 bps increase 58%
No change 25%
50+ bps increase 5%
50+ bps decrease 3.0%
BAGO
$11,639 Vol.
BAGO
$11,639 Vol.
Dec 17, 2026
50+ bps decrease
3%
25 bps decrease
9%
No change
25%
25 bps increase
58%
50+ bps increase
5%
25 bps increase 58%
No change 25%
50+ bps increase 5%
50+ bps decrease 3.0%
BAGO
$11,639 Vol.
BAGO
$11,639 Vol.
Dec 17, 2026
50+ bps decrease
$1,374 Vol.
3%
25 bps decrease
$1,164 Vol.
9%
No change
$1,776 Vol.
25%
25 bps increase
$6,033 Vol.
58%
50+ bps increase
$1,293 Vol.
5%
This market will resolve according to the change in basis points in the deposit facility rate resulting from the December 2026 meeting of the European Central Bank, relative to the level it was prior to this meeting.
The resolution source will be official information from the European Central Bank, including the statement or release from its December 2026 meeting, scheduled for December 16-17, 2026, as listed on the official European Central Bank calendar (https://www.ecb.europa.eu/press/calendars/mgcgc/html/index.en.html). This market may resolve as soon as the statement or release of the European Central Bank's December 2026 meeting with relevant data is issued.
If the specified rate is defined by an upper and lower bound, the relevant change will be the change to the upper bound.
If the specified rate is changed to a level not expressed in the displayed options, the change will be rounded according to the following guidelines. Increases or decreases of less than 25 bps will be rounded to 25 bps (e.g. an increase or decrease of 10 bps would be considered to be an increase or decrease of 25 bps). Increases or decreases of greater than 25 bps will be rounded to the nearest 25 bps and will be rounded away from 0 in cases of equidistance (e.g., an increase or decrease of 37.5 bps would be considered to be an increase or decrease of 50 bps). Displayed options of “Increase” or “Decrease” will include policy rate increases or decreases of any size.
If the specified meeting is postponed to a date and time before the start of the next scheduled meeting, this market will resolve based on the outcome of that postponed meeting. If the specified meeting is cancelled, or postponed such that no decision is announced by the start of the next scheduled meeting, this market will resolve to the “No Change” bracket. Emergency changes to the specified rate not resulting from the specified meeting will not be considered.**Persistent energy-driven inflation pressures from the Middle East conflict, combined with resilient euro area growth, are anchoring trader expectations for further ECB tightening by December 2026.**
The September 10 decision raised the deposit facility rate by 25 basis points to 2.50%, its second hike of the year, as headline inflation reached 3.3% in August amid elevated oil and gas prices. Updated staff projections kept 2026 inflation at 3.0% while lifting 2027 and 2028 forecasts, signaling that price pressures will remain above the 2% target longer than previously anticipated. Stronger-than-expected GDP growth, upward revisions to 2026–2027 outlooks, and limited evidence of second-round effects so far have led multiple banks to forecast an additional 25 basis point move at the December meeting. This consensus on a modest further increase reflects the Governing Council’s data-dependent approach and the ongoing geopolitical risks that continue to shape near-term policy pricing.
This market will resolve according to the change in basis points in the deposit facility rate resulting from the December 2026 meeting of the European Central Bank, relative to the level it was prior to this meeting.
The resolution source will be official information from the European Central Bank, including the statement or release from its December 2026 meeting, scheduled for December 16-17, 2026, as listed on the official European Central Bank calendar (https://www.ecb.europa.eu/press/calendars/mgcgc/html/index.en.html). This market may resolve as soon as the statement or release of the European Central Bank's December 2026 meeting with relevant data is issued.
If the specified rate is defined by an upper and lower bound, the relevant change will be the change to the upper bound.
If the specified rate is changed to a level not expressed in the displayed options, the change will be rounded according to the following guidelines. Increases or decreases of less than 25 bps will be rounded to 25 bps (e.g. an increase or decrease of 10 bps would be considered to be an increase or decrease of 25 bps). Increases or decreases of greater than 25 bps will be rounded to the nearest 25 bps and will be rounded away from 0 in cases of equidistance (e.g., an increase or decrease of 37.5 bps would be considered to be an increase or decrease of 50 bps). Displayed options of “Increase” or “Decrease” will include policy rate increases or decreases of any size.
If the specified meeting is postponed to a date and time before the start of the next scheduled meeting, this market will resolve based on the outcome of that postponed meeting. If the specified meeting is cancelled, or postponed such that no decision is announced by the start of the next scheduled meeting, this market will resolve to the “No Change” bracket. Emergency changes to the specified rate not resulting from the specified meeting will not be considered.
The resolution source will be official information from the European Central Bank, including the statement or release from its December 2026 meeting, scheduled for December 16-17, 2026, as listed on the official European Central Bank calendar (https://www.ecb.europa.eu/press/calendars/mgcgc/html/index.en.html). This market may resolve as soon as the statement or release of the European Central Bank's December 2026 meeting with relevant data is issued.
If the specified rate is defined by an upper and lower bound, the relevant change will be the change to the upper bound.
If the specified rate is changed to a level not expressed in the displayed options, the change will be rounded according to the following guidelines. Increases or decreases of less than 25 bps will be rounded to 25 bps (e.g. an increase or decrease of 10 bps would be considered to be an increase or decrease of 25 bps). Increases or decreases of greater than 25 bps will be rounded to the nearest 25 bps and will be rounded away from 0 in cases of equidistance (e.g., an increase or decrease of 37.5 bps would be considered to be an increase or decrease of 50 bps). Displayed options of “Increase” or “Decrease” will include policy rate increases or decreases of any size.
If the specified meeting is postponed to a date and time before the start of the next scheduled meeting, this market will resolve based on the outcome of that postponed meeting. If the specified meeting is cancelled, or postponed such that no decision is announced by the start of the next scheduled meeting, this market will resolve to the “No Change” bracket. Emergency changes to the specified rate not resulting from the specified meeting will not be considered.
Binuksan ang Market: Sep 14, 2026, 6:12 PM ET
Volume
$11,639Petsa ng Pagtatapos
Dec 17, 2026Binuksan ang Market
Sep 14, 2026, 6:12 PM ETResolver
0x69c47De9D...This market will resolve according to the change in basis points in the deposit facility rate resulting from the December 2026 meeting of the European Central Bank, relative to the level it was prior to this meeting.
The resolution source will be official information from the European Central Bank, including the statement or release from its December 2026 meeting, scheduled for December 16-17, 2026, as listed on the official European Central Bank calendar (https://www.ecb.europa.eu/press/calendars/mgcgc/html/index.en.html). This market may resolve as soon as the statement or release of the European Central Bank's December 2026 meeting with relevant data is issued.
If the specified rate is defined by an upper and lower bound, the relevant change will be the change to the upper bound.
If the specified rate is changed to a level not expressed in the displayed options, the change will be rounded according to the following guidelines. Increases or decreases of less than 25 bps will be rounded to 25 bps (e.g. an increase or decrease of 10 bps would be considered to be an increase or decrease of 25 bps). Increases or decreases of greater than 25 bps will be rounded to the nearest 25 bps and will be rounded away from 0 in cases of equidistance (e.g., an increase or decrease of 37.5 bps would be considered to be an increase or decrease of 50 bps). Displayed options of “Increase” or “Decrease” will include policy rate increases or decreases of any size.
If the specified meeting is postponed to a date and time before the start of the next scheduled meeting, this market will resolve based on the outcome of that postponed meeting. If the specified meeting is cancelled, or postponed such that no decision is announced by the start of the next scheduled meeting, this market will resolve to the “No Change” bracket. Emergency changes to the specified rate not resulting from the specified meeting will not be considered.**Persistent energy-driven inflation pressures from the Middle East conflict, combined with resilient euro area growth, are anchoring trader expectations for further ECB tightening by December 2026.**
The September 10 decision raised the deposit facility rate by 25 basis points to 2.50%, its second hike of the year, as headline inflation reached 3.3% in August amid elevated oil and gas prices. Updated staff projections kept 2026 inflation at 3.0% while lifting 2027 and 2028 forecasts, signaling that price pressures will remain above the 2% target longer than previously anticipated. Stronger-than-expected GDP growth, upward revisions to 2026–2027 outlooks, and limited evidence of second-round effects so far have led multiple banks to forecast an additional 25 basis point move at the December meeting. This consensus on a modest further increase reflects the Governing Council’s data-dependent approach and the ongoing geopolitical risks that continue to shape near-term policy pricing.
This market will resolve according to the change in basis points in the deposit facility rate resulting from the December 2026 meeting of the European Central Bank, relative to the level it was prior to this meeting.
The resolution source will be official information from the European Central Bank, including the statement or release from its December 2026 meeting, scheduled for December 16-17, 2026, as listed on the official European Central Bank calendar (https://www.ecb.europa.eu/press/calendars/mgcgc/html/index.en.html). This market may resolve as soon as the statement or release of the European Central Bank's December 2026 meeting with relevant data is issued.
If the specified rate is defined by an upper and lower bound, the relevant change will be the change to the upper bound.
If the specified rate is changed to a level not expressed in the displayed options, the change will be rounded according to the following guidelines. Increases or decreases of less than 25 bps will be rounded to 25 bps (e.g. an increase or decrease of 10 bps would be considered to be an increase or decrease of 25 bps). Increases or decreases of greater than 25 bps will be rounded to the nearest 25 bps and will be rounded away from 0 in cases of equidistance (e.g., an increase or decrease of 37.5 bps would be considered to be an increase or decrease of 50 bps). Displayed options of “Increase” or “Decrease” will include policy rate increases or decreases of any size.
If the specified meeting is postponed to a date and time before the start of the next scheduled meeting, this market will resolve based on the outcome of that postponed meeting. If the specified meeting is cancelled, or postponed such that no decision is announced by the start of the next scheduled meeting, this market will resolve to the “No Change” bracket. Emergency changes to the specified rate not resulting from the specified meeting will not be considered.
The resolution source will be official information from the European Central Bank, including the statement or release from its December 2026 meeting, scheduled for December 16-17, 2026, as listed on the official European Central Bank calendar (https://www.ecb.europa.eu/press/calendars/mgcgc/html/index.en.html). This market may resolve as soon as the statement or release of the European Central Bank's December 2026 meeting with relevant data is issued.
If the specified rate is defined by an upper and lower bound, the relevant change will be the change to the upper bound.
If the specified rate is changed to a level not expressed in the displayed options, the change will be rounded according to the following guidelines. Increases or decreases of less than 25 bps will be rounded to 25 bps (e.g. an increase or decrease of 10 bps would be considered to be an increase or decrease of 25 bps). Increases or decreases of greater than 25 bps will be rounded to the nearest 25 bps and will be rounded away from 0 in cases of equidistance (e.g., an increase or decrease of 37.5 bps would be considered to be an increase or decrease of 50 bps). Displayed options of “Increase” or “Decrease” will include policy rate increases or decreases of any size.
If the specified meeting is postponed to a date and time before the start of the next scheduled meeting, this market will resolve based on the outcome of that postponed meeting. If the specified meeting is cancelled, or postponed such that no decision is announced by the start of the next scheduled meeting, this market will resolve to the “No Change” bracket. Emergency changes to the specified rate not resulting from the specified meeting will not be considered.
Volume
$11,639Petsa ng Pagtatapos
Dec 17, 2026Binuksan ang Market
Sep 14, 2026, 6:12 PM ETResolver
0x69c47De9D...**Persistent energy-driven inflation pressures from the Middle East conflict, combined with resilient euro area growth, are anchoring trader expectations for further ECB tightening by December 2026.** The September 10 decision raised the deposit facility rate by 25 basis points to 2.50%, its second hike of the year, as headline inflation reached 3.3% in August amid elevated oil and gas prices. Updated staff projections kept 2026 inflation at 3.0% while lifting 2027 and 2028 forecasts, signaling that price pressures will remain above the 2% target longer than previously anticipated. Stronger-than-expected GDP growth, upward revisions to 2026–2027 outlooks, and limited evidence of second-round effects so far have led multiple banks to forecast an additional 25 basis point move at the December meeting. This consensus on a modest further increase reflects the Governing Council’s data-dependent approach and the ongoing geopolitical risks that continue to shape near-term policy pricing.
Eksperimental na AI-generated summary na nire-reference ang Polymarket data. Hindi ito trading advice at wala itong papel sa kung paano nire-resolve ang market na ito. · Na-update
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