Tensions between Eritrea and Ethiopia have escalated sharply since early October 2026, when the two countries severed diplomatic relations after Ethiopia expelled Eritrean diplomats and closed its embassy in Asmara amid accusations that Asmara was supporting a TPLF-led rebel alliance in Tigray. Ethiopia reported Eritrean troop incursions up to 60 km into northern Tigray, including movements near Adigrat, prompting Ethiopian drone strikes on those forces and federal advances that recaptured Mekelle and other areas. Eritrea denies direct involvement, accuses Addis Ababa of fabricating pretexts for aggression linked to Red Sea access ambitions targeting Assab, and has appealed to the UN Security Council for intervention. These mutual claims of aggression, combined with the breakdown in bilateral channels and ongoing northern fighting, have raised the risk of broader interstate confrontation in the Horn of Africa.