Forecast models from the European Centre for Medium-Range Weather Forecasts and GFS show Ankara under a persistent high-pressure ridge with clear skies and light northerly winds, favoring daytime highs of 32–33 °C on August 4. Ensemble spreads remain tight because soil moisture is near seasonal norms and no strong advection of hotter air from the southeast is expected, keeping the 34 °C+ tail probabilities low. Recent upper-air soundings indicate 850 hPa temperatures around 20 °C, consistent with the market’s clustered 31–33 °C outcomes that together exceed 85 % implied probability. Any shift would require a faster-than-forecast strengthening of the ridge or an unexpected southeasterly flow, both low-likelihood scenarios in the next model runs.
Eksperimental na AI-generated summary na nire-reference ang Polymarket data. Hindi ito trading advice at wala itong papel sa kung paano nire-resolve ang market na ito. · Na-updateHighest temperature in Ankara on August 4?
Highest temperature in Ankara on August 4?
32°C 37%
33°C 37%
31°C 18%
34°C 9%
BAGO
BAGO
Aug 4, 2026
28°C or below
<1%
29°C
1%
30°C
3%
31°C
18%
32°C
37%
33°C
37%
34°C
9%
35°C
4%
36°C
4%
37°C
2%
38°C or higher
<1%
32°C 37%
33°C 37%
31°C 18%
34°C 9%
BAGO
BAGO
Aug 4, 2026
28°C or below
$372 Vol.
<1%
29°C
$109 Vol.
1%
30°C
$135 Vol.
3%
31°C
$26 Vol.
18%
32°C
$65 Vol.
37%
33°C
$68 Vol.
37%
34°C
$6 Vol.
9%
35°C
$17 Vol.
4%
36°C
$10 Vol.
4%
37°C
$10 Vol.
2%
38°C or higher
$20 Vol.
<1%
This market will resolve to the temperature range that contains the highest temperature recorded at the Esenboğa Intl Airport Station in degrees Celsius on 4 Aug '26.
The resolution source for this market will be information from Wunderground, specifically the highest temperature recorded for all times on this day for the Esenboğa Intl Airport Station, available here: https://www.wunderground.com/history/daily/tr/%C3%A7ubuk/LTAC.
To toggle between Fahrenheit and Celsius, click the gear icon next to the search bar and switch the Temperature setting between °F and °C.
This market can not resolve until the first data point for the following date has been published on the resolution source.
The resolution source for this market measures temperatures to whole degrees Celsius (eg, 9°C). Thus, this is the level of precision that will be used when resolving the market.
Revisions to temperatures recorded within this market's timeframe will be considered until the first datapoint for the following date has been published, after which any alterations will not be considered.Forecast models from the European Centre for Medium-Range Weather Forecasts and GFS show Ankara under a persistent high-pressure ridge with clear skies and light northerly winds, favoring daytime highs of 32–33 °C on August 4. Ensemble spreads remain tight because soil moisture is near seasonal norms and no strong advection of hotter air from the southeast is expected, keeping the 34 °C+ tail probabilities low. Recent upper-air soundings indicate 850 hPa temperatures around 20 °C, consistent with the market’s clustered 31–33 °C outcomes that together exceed 85 % implied probability. Any shift would require a faster-than-forecast strengthening of the ridge or an unexpected southeasterly flow, both low-likelihood scenarios in the next model runs.
This market will resolve to the temperature range that contains the highest temperature recorded at the Esenboğa Intl Airport Station in degrees Celsius on 4 Aug '26.
The resolution source for this market will be information from Wunderground, specifically the highest temperature recorded for all times on this day for the Esenboğa Intl Airport Station, available here: https://www.wunderground.com/history/daily/tr/%C3%A7ubuk/LTAC.
To toggle between Fahrenheit and Celsius, click the gear icon next to the search bar and switch the Temperature setting between °F and °C.
This market can not resolve until the first data point for the following date has been published on the resolution source.
The resolution source for this market measures temperatures to whole degrees Celsius (eg, 9°C). Thus, this is the level of precision that will be used when resolving the market.
Revisions to temperatures recorded within this market's timeframe will be considered until the first datapoint for the following date has been published, after which any alterations will not be considered.
The resolution source for this market will be information from Wunderground, specifically the highest temperature recorded for all times on this day for the Esenboğa Intl Airport Station, available here: https://www.wunderground.com/history/daily/tr/%C3%A7ubuk/LTAC.
To toggle between Fahrenheit and Celsius, click the gear icon next to the search bar and switch the Temperature setting between °F and °C.
This market can not resolve until the first data point for the following date has been published on the resolution source.
The resolution source for this market measures temperatures to whole degrees Celsius (eg, 9°C). Thus, this is the level of precision that will be used when resolving the market.
Revisions to temperatures recorded within this market's timeframe will be considered until the first datapoint for the following date has been published, after which any alterations will not be considered.
Binuksan ang Market: Aug 2, 2026, 12:03 AM ET
Volume
$840Petsa ng Pagtatapos
Aug 4, 2026Binuksan ang Market
Aug 2, 2026, 12:03 AM ETResolution Source
https://www.wunderground.com/history/daily/tr/%C3%A7ubuk/LTACResolver
0x69c47De9D...This market will resolve to the temperature range that contains the highest temperature recorded at the Esenboğa Intl Airport Station in degrees Celsius on 4 Aug '26.
The resolution source for this market will be information from Wunderground, specifically the highest temperature recorded for all times on this day for the Esenboğa Intl Airport Station, available here: https://www.wunderground.com/history/daily/tr/%C3%A7ubuk/LTAC.
To toggle between Fahrenheit and Celsius, click the gear icon next to the search bar and switch the Temperature setting between °F and °C.
This market can not resolve until the first data point for the following date has been published on the resolution source.
The resolution source for this market measures temperatures to whole degrees Celsius (eg, 9°C). Thus, this is the level of precision that will be used when resolving the market.
Revisions to temperatures recorded within this market's timeframe will be considered until the first datapoint for the following date has been published, after which any alterations will not be considered.Forecast models from the European Centre for Medium-Range Weather Forecasts and GFS show Ankara under a persistent high-pressure ridge with clear skies and light northerly winds, favoring daytime highs of 32–33 °C on August 4. Ensemble spreads remain tight because soil moisture is near seasonal norms and no strong advection of hotter air from the southeast is expected, keeping the 34 °C+ tail probabilities low. Recent upper-air soundings indicate 850 hPa temperatures around 20 °C, consistent with the market’s clustered 31–33 °C outcomes that together exceed 85 % implied probability. Any shift would require a faster-than-forecast strengthening of the ridge or an unexpected southeasterly flow, both low-likelihood scenarios in the next model runs.
This market will resolve to the temperature range that contains the highest temperature recorded at the Esenboğa Intl Airport Station in degrees Celsius on 4 Aug '26.
The resolution source for this market will be information from Wunderground, specifically the highest temperature recorded for all times on this day for the Esenboğa Intl Airport Station, available here: https://www.wunderground.com/history/daily/tr/%C3%A7ubuk/LTAC.
To toggle between Fahrenheit and Celsius, click the gear icon next to the search bar and switch the Temperature setting between °F and °C.
This market can not resolve until the first data point for the following date has been published on the resolution source.
The resolution source for this market measures temperatures to whole degrees Celsius (eg, 9°C). Thus, this is the level of precision that will be used when resolving the market.
Revisions to temperatures recorded within this market's timeframe will be considered until the first datapoint for the following date has been published, after which any alterations will not be considered.
The resolution source for this market will be information from Wunderground, specifically the highest temperature recorded for all times on this day for the Esenboğa Intl Airport Station, available here: https://www.wunderground.com/history/daily/tr/%C3%A7ubuk/LTAC.
To toggle between Fahrenheit and Celsius, click the gear icon next to the search bar and switch the Temperature setting between °F and °C.
This market can not resolve until the first data point for the following date has been published on the resolution source.
The resolution source for this market measures temperatures to whole degrees Celsius (eg, 9°C). Thus, this is the level of precision that will be used when resolving the market.
Revisions to temperatures recorded within this market's timeframe will be considered until the first datapoint for the following date has been published, after which any alterations will not be considered.
Volume
$840Petsa ng Pagtatapos
Aug 4, 2026Binuksan ang Market
Aug 2, 2026, 12:03 AM ETResolution Source
https://www.wunderground.com/history/daily/tr/%C3%A7ubuk/LTACResolver
0x69c47De9D...Forecast models from the European Centre for Medium-Range Weather Forecasts and GFS show Ankara under a persistent high-pressure ridge with clear skies and light northerly winds, favoring daytime highs of 32–33 °C on August 4. Ensemble spreads remain tight because soil moisture is near seasonal norms and no strong advection of hotter air from the southeast is expected, keeping the 34 °C+ tail probabilities low. Recent upper-air soundings indicate 850 hPa temperatures around 20 °C, consistent with the market’s clustered 31–33 °C outcomes that together exceed 85 % implied probability. Any shift would require a faster-than-forecast strengthening of the ridge or an unexpected southeasterly flow, both low-likelihood scenarios in the next model runs.
Eksperimental na AI-generated summary na nire-reference ang Polymarket data. Hindi ito trading advice at wala itong papel sa kung paano nire-resolve ang market na ito. · Na-update
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