Recent observational data from Beijing meteorological stations confirm a daily maximum temperature of 26°C under clear skies and light southerly flow, consistent with China Meteorological Administration model runs and regional analyses. This aligns closely with climatological norms for early October, when average highs reach about 21–22°C but can exceed 25°C during periods of subsidence and minimal cloud cover. Strong consensus across surface observations and numerical weather prediction outputs has driven the market-implied odds to 100% for this threshold. Minor post-event data revisions from additional stations or adjustments in quality control could theoretically alter the official record, though such shifts remain improbable given the narrow range of reported values.