Official forecasts from the Hong Kong Observatory indicate a 26–30°C range for August 25 amid a persistent low-pressure trough over the southern China coast, driving widespread cloud cover, showers, and squally thunderstorms that limit solar insolation and cap daytime maxima. South to southwest winds of force 4–6 further promote mixing and moisture advection, favoring convective development over peak heating. Recent model consensus aligns closely with these conditions, though minor variations in shower timing or intensity could allow brief breaks of sunshine to push readings toward 31–32°C. Historical August baselines near 31°C provide context, yet the current unsettled pattern supports trader emphasis on 30–32°C outcomes as the most probable resolution thresholds.