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icon for Highest temperature in Hong Kong on July 15?

Highest temperature in Hong Kong on July 15?

icon for Highest temperature in Hong Kong on July 15?

Highest temperature in Hong Kong on July 15?

Jul 13

Jul 14

Jul 15

Jul 13

Jul 14

Jul 15

30°C 42%

31°C 28%

29°C 21%

28°C 6%

Polymarket
BAGO

30°C 42%

31°C 28%

29°C 21%

28°C 6%

Polymarket
BAGO

24°C or below

$213 Vol.

<1%

25°C

$241 Vol.

<1%

26°C

$219 Vol.

<1%

27°C

$174 Vol.

1%

28°C

$262 Vol.

6%

29°C

$230 Vol.

21%

30°C

$343 Vol.

42%

31°C

$341 Vol.

28%

32°C

$455 Vol.

6%

33°C

$340 Vol.

2%

34°C or higher

$1,109 Vol.

<1%

This market will resolve to the temperature range that contains the highest temperature recorded by the Hong Kong Observatory in degrees Celsius on 15 Jul '26. The resolution source for this market will be information from the Hong Kong Observatory, specifically the "Absolute Daily Max (deg. C)" the specified date once information is finalized in the relevant "Daily Extract", available here: https://www.weather.gov.hk/en/cis/climat.htm This market can not resolve until data for this date has been published. The resolution source for this market measures temperatures in Celsius to one decimal place (eg, 9.1°C). Thus, this is the level of precision that will be used when resolving the market. Any revisions to temperatures recorded after data is initially published for this market's timeframe will not be considered for this market's resolution.Official Hong Kong Observatory forecasts for July 15 project a daily maximum range of 26–30°C amid high rain probability, driven by an approaching low-pressure trough over the northern South China Sea that favors widespread cloud cover and showers. These conditions limit solar insolation and convective heating, keeping peaks near or below the 30°C threshold despite the seasonal outlook for normal-to-above-normal July temperatures. Model consensus and historical analogs for similar trough patterns support modest daytime highs, creating tight market-implied odds between 29°C and 30°C as traders weigh the balance between residual heat and precipitation suppression. Updated guidance from the Observatory on steering flow and rainfall timing will likely refine probabilities ahead of resolution.

This market will resolve to the temperature range that contains the highest temperature recorded by the Hong Kong Observatory in degrees Celsius on 15 Jul '26.

The resolution source for this market will be information from the Hong Kong Observatory, specifically the "Absolute Daily Max (deg. C)" the specified date once information is finalized in the relevant "Daily Extract", available here: https://www.weather.gov.hk/en/cis/climat.htm

This market can not resolve until data for this date has been published.

The resolution source for this market measures temperatures in Celsius to one decimal place (eg, 9.1°C). Thus, this is the level of precision that will be used when resolving the market.

Any revisions to temperatures recorded after data is initially published for this market's timeframe will not be considered for this market's resolution.
Volume
$3,928
Petsa ng Pagtatapos
Jul 15, 2026
Binuksan ang Market
Jul 13, 2026, 12:02 AM ET

Resolver

0x69c47De9D...
This market will resolve to the temperature range that contains the highest temperature recorded by the Hong Kong Observatory in degrees Celsius on 15 Jul '26. The resolution source for this market will be information from the Hong Kong Observatory, specifically the "Absolute Daily Max (deg. C)" the specified date once information is finalized in the relevant "Daily Extract", available here: https://www.weather.gov.hk/en/cis/climat.htm This market can not resolve until data for this date has been published. The resolution source for this market measures temperatures in Celsius to one decimal place (eg, 9.1°C). Thus, this is the level of precision that will be used when resolving the market. Any revisions to temperatures recorded after data is initially published for this market's timeframe will not be considered for this market's resolution.
This market will resolve to the temperature range that contains the highest temperature recorded by the Hong Kong Observatory in degrees Celsius on 15 Jul '26. The resolution source for this market will be information from the Hong Kong Observatory, specifically the "Absolute Daily Max (deg. C)" the specified date once information is finalized in the relevant "Daily Extract", available here: https://www.weather.gov.hk/en/cis/climat.htm This market can not resolve until data for this date has been published. The resolution source for this market measures temperatures in Celsius to one decimal place (eg, 9.1°C). Thus, this is the level of precision that will be used when resolving the market. Any revisions to temperatures recorded after data is initially published for this market's timeframe will not be considered for this market's resolution.Official Hong Kong Observatory forecasts for July 15 project a daily maximum range of 26–30°C amid high rain probability, driven by an approaching low-pressure trough over the northern South China Sea that favors widespread cloud cover and showers. These conditions limit solar insolation and convective heating, keeping peaks near or below the 30°C threshold despite the seasonal outlook for normal-to-above-normal July temperatures. Model consensus and historical analogs for similar trough patterns support modest daytime highs, creating tight market-implied odds between 29°C and 30°C as traders weigh the balance between residual heat and precipitation suppression. Updated guidance from the Observatory on steering flow and rainfall timing will likely refine probabilities ahead of resolution.

This market will resolve to the temperature range that contains the highest temperature recorded by the Hong Kong Observatory in degrees Celsius on 15 Jul '26.

The resolution source for this market will be information from the Hong Kong Observatory, specifically the "Absolute Daily Max (deg. C)" the specified date once information is finalized in the relevant "Daily Extract", available here: https://www.weather.gov.hk/en/cis/climat.htm

This market can not resolve until data for this date has been published.

The resolution source for this market measures temperatures in Celsius to one decimal place (eg, 9.1°C). Thus, this is the level of precision that will be used when resolving the market.

Any revisions to temperatures recorded after data is initially published for this market's timeframe will not be considered for this market's resolution.
Volume
$3,928
Petsa ng Pagtatapos
Jul 15, 2026
Binuksan ang Market
Jul 13, 2026, 12:02 AM ET

Resolver

0x69c47De9D...
This market will resolve to the temperature range that contains the highest temperature recorded by the Hong Kong Observatory in degrees Celsius on 15 Jul '26. The resolution source for this market will be information from the Hong Kong Observatory, specifically the "Absolute Daily Max (deg. C)" the specified date once information is finalized in the relevant "Daily Extract", available here: https://www.weather.gov.hk/en/cis/climat.htm This market can not resolve until data for this date has been published. The resolution source for this market measures temperatures in Celsius to one decimal place (eg, 9.1°C). Thus, this is the level of precision that will be used when resolving the market. Any revisions to temperatures recorded after data is initially published for this market's timeframe will not be considered for this market's resolution.

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Mga Madalas na Tanong

Ang "Highest temperature in Hong Kong on July 15?" ay isang prediction market sa Polymarket na may 11 posibleng outcomes kung saan bumibili at nagbebenta ang mga trader ng shares batay sa kanilang pinaniniwalaan na mangyayari. Ang kasalukuyang nangunguna ay "30°C" sa 42%, sinusundan ng "31°C" sa 28%. Ang mga presyo ay sumasalamin sa real-time crowd-sourced probabilities. Halimbawa, ang isang share na naka-presyo sa 42¢ ay nagpapahiwatig na kolektibong itinatakda ng market ang 42% na tsansa sa outcome na iyon. Patuloy na nagbabago ang mga odds na ito habang tumutugon ang mga trader sa mga bagong development at impormasyon. Ang mga shares sa tamang outcome ay mare-redeem sa $1 bawat isa sa market resolution.

Ang "Highest temperature in Hong Kong on July 15?" ay isang bagong likhang market sa Polymarket, inilunsad noong Jul 13, 2026. Bilang isang maagang market, ito ang iyong pagkakataon na maging kabilang sa mga unang trader na magtakda ng odds at mag-establish ng mga paunang price signal ng market. Maaari mo ring i-bookmark ang pahinang ito para subaybayan ang volume at trading activity habang lumalaki ang market sa paglipas ng panahon.

Para mag-trade sa "Highest temperature in Hong Kong on July 15?," i-browse ang 11 available na outcomes na nakalista sa pahinang ito. Ang bawat outcome ay may kasalukuyang presyo na kumakatawan sa implied probability ng market. Para kumuha ng posisyon, piliin ang outcome na pinaniniwalaan mong pinaka-malamang, piliin ang "Yes" para mag-trade pabor dito o "No" para mag-trade laban dito, ilagay ang iyong halaga, at i-click ang "Trade." Kung tama ang iyong napiling outcome kapag na-resolve ang market, nagbabayad ang iyong "Yes" shares ng $1 bawat isa. Kung mali, nagbabayad ang mga ito ng $0. Maaari ka ring magbenta ng iyong shares anumang oras bago ang resolution kung gusto mong i-lock in ang kita o bawasan ang pagkalugi.

Ang kasalukuyang frontrunner para sa "Highest temperature in Hong Kong on July 15?" ay "30°C" sa 42%, ibig sabihin itinatakda ng market ang 42% na tsansa sa outcome na iyon. Ang sumunod na pinaka-malapit na outcome ay "31°C" sa 28%. Nag-a-update ang mga odds na ito sa real-time habang bumibili at nagbebenta ang mga trader ng shares, kaya sinasalamin nila ang pinakabagong kolektibong view kung ano ang pinaka-malamang na mangyari. Bumalik nang madalas o i-bookmark ang pahinang ito para sundan kung paano nagbabago ang odds habang lumilitaw ang bagong impormasyon.

Ang mga resolution rules para sa "Highest temperature in Hong Kong on July 15?" ay tiyak na nagde-define kung ano ang kailangang mangyari para sa bawat outcome na maideklara bilang panalo — kasama ang mga opisyal na data source na ginagamit para matukoy ang resulta. Maaari mong i-review ang kumpletong resolution criteria sa "Rules" section sa pahinang ito sa itaas ng mga komento. Inirerekomenda namin na basahin nang mabuti ang mga patakaran bago mag-trade, dahil tinutukoy nila ang mga tiyak na kondisyon, edge cases, at mga source na namamahala kung paano nise-settle ang market na ito.