Latest numerical weather prediction models, including GFS outputs, indicate a daytime maximum of 13–14°C in Warsaw on October 16 under mostly clear to partly cloudy skies and light southerly or easterly winds. This positioning stems from a stable high-pressure ridge over central Europe that promotes strong daytime insolation while limiting cloud cover and moisture advection. Nighttime radiative cooling will keep minimums near 4–7°C, but the afternoon peak depends on boundary-layer mixing and any subtle warm-air return. These conditions align closely with mid-October climatological norms for the region, producing the market-implied emphasis on 14°C or higher at 61.5% alongside a secondary 13°C outcome. No major synoptic shifts are expected before resolution.