Short-term forecasts from MetService and international models currently project a daytime maximum of 15°C for Wellington on July 15, supported by northerly flow advecting milder maritime air ahead of a frontal system. This aligns with the market-implied probabilities favoring 15°C (46.5%) and 16°C (31%), above the typical July average high near 12–13°C. NIWA’s seasonal outlook for May–July 2026 indicates temperatures are most likely near or below average across the region, yet the specific synoptic pattern for mid-month is producing the observed mild signal. Key variables include wind direction shifts, cloud cover, and any late intensification of the approaching front, with updated model runs expected to refine the exact peak before resolution.
Eksperimental na AI-generated summary na nire-reference ang Polymarket data. Hindi ito trading advice at wala itong papel sa kung paano nire-resolve ang market na ito. · Na-updateHighest temperature in Wellington on July 15?
Highest temperature in Wellington on July 15?
15°C 60%
16°C 32%
14°C 9.3%
17°C 2.3%
BAGO
$16,781 Vol.
BAGO
$16,781 Vol.
Jul 15, 2026
10°C or below
<1%
11°C
<1%
12°C
<1%
13°C
1%
14°C
9%
15°C
60%
16°C
32%
17°C
2%
18°C
<1%
19°C
<1%
20°C or higher
<1%
15°C 60%
16°C 32%
14°C 9.3%
17°C 2.3%
BAGO
$16,781 Vol.
BAGO
$16,781 Vol.
Jul 15, 2026
10°C or below
$1,103 Vol.
<1%
11°C
$801 Vol.
<1%
12°C
$813 Vol.
<1%
13°C
$1,464 Vol.
1%
14°C
$2,625 Vol.
9%
15°C
$4,581 Vol.
60%
16°C
$2,267 Vol.
32%
17°C
$1,220 Vol.
2%
18°C
$1,139 Vol.
<1%
19°C
$386 Vol.
<1%
20°C or higher
$753 Vol.
<1%
This market will resolve to the temperature range that contains the highest temperature recorded at the Wellington Intl Airport Station in degrees Celsius on 15 Jul '26.
The resolution source for this market will be information from Wunderground, specifically the highest temperature recorded for all times on this day for the Wellington Intl Airport Station, available here: https://www.wunderground.com/history/daily/nz/wellington/NZWN.
To toggle between Fahrenheit and Celsius, click the gear icon next to the search bar and switch the Temperature setting between °F and °C.
This market can not resolve until the first data point for the following date has been published on the resolution source.
The resolution source for this market measures temperatures to whole degrees Celsius (eg, 9°C). Thus, this is the level of precision that will be used when resolving the market.
Revisions to temperatures recorded within this market's timeframe will be considered until the first datapoint for the following date has been published, after which any alterations will not be considered.Short-term forecasts from MetService and international models currently project a daytime maximum of 15°C for Wellington on July 15, supported by northerly flow advecting milder maritime air ahead of a frontal system. This aligns with the market-implied probabilities favoring 15°C (46.5%) and 16°C (31%), above the typical July average high near 12–13°C. NIWA’s seasonal outlook for May–July 2026 indicates temperatures are most likely near or below average across the region, yet the specific synoptic pattern for mid-month is producing the observed mild signal. Key variables include wind direction shifts, cloud cover, and any late intensification of the approaching front, with updated model runs expected to refine the exact peak before resolution.
This market will resolve to the temperature range that contains the highest temperature recorded at the Wellington Intl Airport Station in degrees Celsius on 15 Jul '26.
The resolution source for this market will be information from Wunderground, specifically the highest temperature recorded for all times on this day for the Wellington Intl Airport Station, available here: https://www.wunderground.com/history/daily/nz/wellington/NZWN.
To toggle between Fahrenheit and Celsius, click the gear icon next to the search bar and switch the Temperature setting between °F and °C.
This market can not resolve until the first data point for the following date has been published on the resolution source.
The resolution source for this market measures temperatures to whole degrees Celsius (eg, 9°C). Thus, this is the level of precision that will be used when resolving the market.
Revisions to temperatures recorded within this market's timeframe will be considered until the first datapoint for the following date has been published, after which any alterations will not be considered.
The resolution source for this market will be information from Wunderground, specifically the highest temperature recorded for all times on this day for the Wellington Intl Airport Station, available here: https://www.wunderground.com/history/daily/nz/wellington/NZWN.
To toggle between Fahrenheit and Celsius, click the gear icon next to the search bar and switch the Temperature setting between °F and °C.
This market can not resolve until the first data point for the following date has been published on the resolution source.
The resolution source for this market measures temperatures to whole degrees Celsius (eg, 9°C). Thus, this is the level of precision that will be used when resolving the market.
Revisions to temperatures recorded within this market's timeframe will be considered until the first datapoint for the following date has been published, after which any alterations will not be considered.
Binuksan ang Market: Jul 13, 2026, 12:02 AM ET
Volume
$16,781Petsa ng Pagtatapos
Jul 15, 2026Binuksan ang Market
Jul 13, 2026, 12:02 AM ETResolution Source
https://www.wunderground.com/history/daily/nz/wellington/NZWNResolver
0x69c47De9D...This market will resolve to the temperature range that contains the highest temperature recorded at the Wellington Intl Airport Station in degrees Celsius on 15 Jul '26.
The resolution source for this market will be information from Wunderground, specifically the highest temperature recorded for all times on this day for the Wellington Intl Airport Station, available here: https://www.wunderground.com/history/daily/nz/wellington/NZWN.
To toggle between Fahrenheit and Celsius, click the gear icon next to the search bar and switch the Temperature setting between °F and °C.
This market can not resolve until the first data point for the following date has been published on the resolution source.
The resolution source for this market measures temperatures to whole degrees Celsius (eg, 9°C). Thus, this is the level of precision that will be used when resolving the market.
Revisions to temperatures recorded within this market's timeframe will be considered until the first datapoint for the following date has been published, after which any alterations will not be considered.Short-term forecasts from MetService and international models currently project a daytime maximum of 15°C for Wellington on July 15, supported by northerly flow advecting milder maritime air ahead of a frontal system. This aligns with the market-implied probabilities favoring 15°C (46.5%) and 16°C (31%), above the typical July average high near 12–13°C. NIWA’s seasonal outlook for May–July 2026 indicates temperatures are most likely near or below average across the region, yet the specific synoptic pattern for mid-month is producing the observed mild signal. Key variables include wind direction shifts, cloud cover, and any late intensification of the approaching front, with updated model runs expected to refine the exact peak before resolution.
This market will resolve to the temperature range that contains the highest temperature recorded at the Wellington Intl Airport Station in degrees Celsius on 15 Jul '26.
The resolution source for this market will be information from Wunderground, specifically the highest temperature recorded for all times on this day for the Wellington Intl Airport Station, available here: https://www.wunderground.com/history/daily/nz/wellington/NZWN.
To toggle between Fahrenheit and Celsius, click the gear icon next to the search bar and switch the Temperature setting between °F and °C.
This market can not resolve until the first data point for the following date has been published on the resolution source.
The resolution source for this market measures temperatures to whole degrees Celsius (eg, 9°C). Thus, this is the level of precision that will be used when resolving the market.
Revisions to temperatures recorded within this market's timeframe will be considered until the first datapoint for the following date has been published, after which any alterations will not be considered.
The resolution source for this market will be information from Wunderground, specifically the highest temperature recorded for all times on this day for the Wellington Intl Airport Station, available here: https://www.wunderground.com/history/daily/nz/wellington/NZWN.
To toggle between Fahrenheit and Celsius, click the gear icon next to the search bar and switch the Temperature setting between °F and °C.
This market can not resolve until the first data point for the following date has been published on the resolution source.
The resolution source for this market measures temperatures to whole degrees Celsius (eg, 9°C). Thus, this is the level of precision that will be used when resolving the market.
Revisions to temperatures recorded within this market's timeframe will be considered until the first datapoint for the following date has been published, after which any alterations will not be considered.
Volume
$16,781Petsa ng Pagtatapos
Jul 15, 2026Binuksan ang Market
Jul 13, 2026, 12:02 AM ETResolution Source
https://www.wunderground.com/history/daily/nz/wellington/NZWNResolver
0x69c47De9D...Short-term forecasts from MetService and international models currently project a daytime maximum of 15°C for Wellington on July 15, supported by northerly flow advecting milder maritime air ahead of a frontal system. This aligns with the market-implied probabilities favoring 15°C (46.5%) and 16°C (31%), above the typical July average high near 12–13°C. NIWA’s seasonal outlook for May–July 2026 indicates temperatures are most likely near or below average across the region, yet the specific synoptic pattern for mid-month is producing the observed mild signal. Key variables include wind direction shifts, cloud cover, and any late intensification of the approaching front, with updated model runs expected to refine the exact peak before resolution.
Eksperimental na AI-generated summary na nire-reference ang Polymarket data. Hindi ito trading advice at wala itong papel sa kung paano nire-resolve ang market na ito. · Na-update
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