Tropical Storm Saudel, currently at about 40 mph sustained winds near 12°N 151°E in the western Pacific, sits in an environment poised for significant strengthening. Forecast guidance highlights easing vertical wind shear below 10 knots, traversal over elevated ocean heat content, and development of a poleward outflow channel tied to an upper-level trough, all favoring axisymmetrization and rapid intensification potential after the next 12 hours. Official agencies including JMA and JTWC project steady gains, with intensity aids showing high probabilities of substantial wind increases over three days. However, exact peak intensity hinges on precise timing of these factors, track proximity to land or shear gradients, and model spread in outflow and moisture profiles, producing the near-even market-implied odds across JMA-defined strength thresholds from tropical storm through violent typhoon categories. Updated model runs and satellite reconnaissance over the coming 48 hours will refine these variables ahead of any peak.
Eksperimental na AI-generated summary na nire-reference ang Polymarket data. Hindi ito trading advice at wala itong papel sa kung paano nire-resolve ang market na ito. · Na-updateHow strong will Tropical Storm Saudel get?
How strong will Tropical Storm Saudel get?
Tropical Storm 26%
Severe Tropical Storm 25%
Typhoon 25%
Very Strong Typhoon 25%
BAGO
BAGO
Aug 31, 2026
Tropical Storm
26%
Severe Tropical Storm
25%
Typhoon
25%
Very Strong Typhoon
25%
Violent Typhoon
25%
Tropical Storm 26%
Severe Tropical Storm 25%
Typhoon 25%
Very Strong Typhoon 25%
BAGO
BAGO
Aug 31, 2026
Tropical Storm
$0 Vol.
26%
Severe Tropical Storm
$0 Vol.
25%
Typhoon
$0 Vol.
25%
Very Strong Typhoon
$0 Vol.
25%
Violent Typhoon
$0 Vol.
25%
This market resolves based on the maximum intensity that Tropical Storm Saudel (JMA designation T2618) reaches at any point on or before 11:59 PM ET on August 31, 2026, using the Japan Meteorological Agency's (JMA) advisories (https://www.jma.go.jp/bosai/map.html#contents=typhoon&lang=en).
Resolution is by wind speed: take the highest 10-minute maximum sustained wind speed JMA reports for Saudel in any single advisory during its lifetime, and the market for the one category whose range contains that value resolves "Yes." The categories are defined solely by these inclusive knot ranges: Tropical Storm (34-47 kt), Severe Tropical Storm (48-63 kt), Typhoon (64-84 kt), Very Strong Typhoon (85-104 kt), and Violent Typhoon (105 kt or higher). These names label the wind-speed ranges; JMA's own strength wording need not appear in an advisory for a category to resolve. The peak must occur on or before the deadline, though the confirming JMA data may be published later.
Saudel is already a tropical storm, so its peak is at least "Tropical Storm". The wind speed in JMA's issued advisories is final and is not changed by any later reclassification or post-season best-track reanalysis. Where JMA advisory data is disputed, the values recorded by the Digital Typhoon database (National Institute of Informatics, Japan) for Typhoon 202618 (SAUDEL) are treated as conclusive evidence of what JMA reported. JMA is the primary and default resolution source.Tropical Storm Saudel, currently at about 40 mph sustained winds near 12°N 151°E in the western Pacific, sits in an environment poised for significant strengthening. Forecast guidance highlights easing vertical wind shear below 10 knots, traversal over elevated ocean heat content, and development of a poleward outflow channel tied to an upper-level trough, all favoring axisymmetrization and rapid intensification potential after the next 12 hours. Official agencies including JMA and JTWC project steady gains, with intensity aids showing high probabilities of substantial wind increases over three days. However, exact peak intensity hinges on precise timing of these factors, track proximity to land or shear gradients, and model spread in outflow and moisture profiles, producing the near-even market-implied odds across JMA-defined strength thresholds from tropical storm through violent typhoon categories. Updated model runs and satellite reconnaissance over the coming 48 hours will refine these variables ahead of any peak.
This market resolves based on the maximum intensity that Tropical Storm Saudel (JMA designation T2618) reaches at any point on or before 11:59 PM ET on August 31, 2026, using the Japan Meteorological Agency's (JMA) advisories (https://www.jma.go.jp/bosai/map.html#contents=typhoon&lang=en).
Resolution is by wind speed: take the highest 10-minute maximum sustained wind speed JMA reports for Saudel in any single advisory during its lifetime, and the market for the one category whose range contains that value resolves "Yes." The categories are defined solely by these inclusive knot ranges: Tropical Storm (34-47 kt), Severe Tropical Storm (48-63 kt), Typhoon (64-84 kt), Very Strong Typhoon (85-104 kt), and Violent Typhoon (105 kt or higher). These names label the wind-speed ranges; JMA's own strength wording need not appear in an advisory for a category to resolve. The peak must occur on or before the deadline, though the confirming JMA data may be published later.
Saudel is already a tropical storm, so its peak is at least "Tropical Storm". The wind speed in JMA's issued advisories is final and is not changed by any later reclassification or post-season best-track reanalysis. Where JMA advisory data is disputed, the values recorded by the Digital Typhoon database (National Institute of Informatics, Japan) for Typhoon 202618 (SAUDEL) are treated as conclusive evidence of what JMA reported. JMA is the primary and default resolution source.
Resolution is by wind speed: take the highest 10-minute maximum sustained wind speed JMA reports for Saudel in any single advisory during its lifetime, and the market for the one category whose range contains that value resolves "Yes." The categories are defined solely by these inclusive knot ranges: Tropical Storm (34-47 kt), Severe Tropical Storm (48-63 kt), Typhoon (64-84 kt), Very Strong Typhoon (85-104 kt), and Violent Typhoon (105 kt or higher). These names label the wind-speed ranges; JMA's own strength wording need not appear in an advisory for a category to resolve. The peak must occur on or before the deadline, though the confirming JMA data may be published later.
Saudel is already a tropical storm, so its peak is at least "Tropical Storm". The wind speed in JMA's issued advisories is final and is not changed by any later reclassification or post-season best-track reanalysis. Where JMA advisory data is disputed, the values recorded by the Digital Typhoon database (National Institute of Informatics, Japan) for Typhoon 202618 (SAUDEL) are treated as conclusive evidence of what JMA reported. JMA is the primary and default resolution source.
Binuksan ang Market: Aug 20, 2026, 11:11 AM ET
Volume
$0Petsa ng Pagtatapos
Sep 1, 2026Binuksan ang Market
Aug 20, 2026, 11:11 AM ETResolution Source
https://www.jma.go.jp/bosai/map.html#contents=typhoon&lang=enResolver
0x69c47De9D...This market resolves based on the maximum intensity that Tropical Storm Saudel (JMA designation T2618) reaches at any point on or before 11:59 PM ET on August 31, 2026, using the Japan Meteorological Agency's (JMA) advisories (https://www.jma.go.jp/bosai/map.html#contents=typhoon&lang=en).
Resolution is by wind speed: take the highest 10-minute maximum sustained wind speed JMA reports for Saudel in any single advisory during its lifetime, and the market for the one category whose range contains that value resolves "Yes." The categories are defined solely by these inclusive knot ranges: Tropical Storm (34-47 kt), Severe Tropical Storm (48-63 kt), Typhoon (64-84 kt), Very Strong Typhoon (85-104 kt), and Violent Typhoon (105 kt or higher). These names label the wind-speed ranges; JMA's own strength wording need not appear in an advisory for a category to resolve. The peak must occur on or before the deadline, though the confirming JMA data may be published later.
Saudel is already a tropical storm, so its peak is at least "Tropical Storm". The wind speed in JMA's issued advisories is final and is not changed by any later reclassification or post-season best-track reanalysis. Where JMA advisory data is disputed, the values recorded by the Digital Typhoon database (National Institute of Informatics, Japan) for Typhoon 202618 (SAUDEL) are treated as conclusive evidence of what JMA reported. JMA is the primary and default resolution source.Tropical Storm Saudel, currently at about 40 mph sustained winds near 12°N 151°E in the western Pacific, sits in an environment poised for significant strengthening. Forecast guidance highlights easing vertical wind shear below 10 knots, traversal over elevated ocean heat content, and development of a poleward outflow channel tied to an upper-level trough, all favoring axisymmetrization and rapid intensification potential after the next 12 hours. Official agencies including JMA and JTWC project steady gains, with intensity aids showing high probabilities of substantial wind increases over three days. However, exact peak intensity hinges on precise timing of these factors, track proximity to land or shear gradients, and model spread in outflow and moisture profiles, producing the near-even market-implied odds across JMA-defined strength thresholds from tropical storm through violent typhoon categories. Updated model runs and satellite reconnaissance over the coming 48 hours will refine these variables ahead of any peak.
This market resolves based on the maximum intensity that Tropical Storm Saudel (JMA designation T2618) reaches at any point on or before 11:59 PM ET on August 31, 2026, using the Japan Meteorological Agency's (JMA) advisories (https://www.jma.go.jp/bosai/map.html#contents=typhoon&lang=en).
Resolution is by wind speed: take the highest 10-minute maximum sustained wind speed JMA reports for Saudel in any single advisory during its lifetime, and the market for the one category whose range contains that value resolves "Yes." The categories are defined solely by these inclusive knot ranges: Tropical Storm (34-47 kt), Severe Tropical Storm (48-63 kt), Typhoon (64-84 kt), Very Strong Typhoon (85-104 kt), and Violent Typhoon (105 kt or higher). These names label the wind-speed ranges; JMA's own strength wording need not appear in an advisory for a category to resolve. The peak must occur on or before the deadline, though the confirming JMA data may be published later.
Saudel is already a tropical storm, so its peak is at least "Tropical Storm". The wind speed in JMA's issued advisories is final and is not changed by any later reclassification or post-season best-track reanalysis. Where JMA advisory data is disputed, the values recorded by the Digital Typhoon database (National Institute of Informatics, Japan) for Typhoon 202618 (SAUDEL) are treated as conclusive evidence of what JMA reported. JMA is the primary and default resolution source.
Resolution is by wind speed: take the highest 10-minute maximum sustained wind speed JMA reports for Saudel in any single advisory during its lifetime, and the market for the one category whose range contains that value resolves "Yes." The categories are defined solely by these inclusive knot ranges: Tropical Storm (34-47 kt), Severe Tropical Storm (48-63 kt), Typhoon (64-84 kt), Very Strong Typhoon (85-104 kt), and Violent Typhoon (105 kt or higher). These names label the wind-speed ranges; JMA's own strength wording need not appear in an advisory for a category to resolve. The peak must occur on or before the deadline, though the confirming JMA data may be published later.
Saudel is already a tropical storm, so its peak is at least "Tropical Storm". The wind speed in JMA's issued advisories is final and is not changed by any later reclassification or post-season best-track reanalysis. Where JMA advisory data is disputed, the values recorded by the Digital Typhoon database (National Institute of Informatics, Japan) for Typhoon 202618 (SAUDEL) are treated as conclusive evidence of what JMA reported. JMA is the primary and default resolution source.
Volume
$0Petsa ng Pagtatapos
Sep 1, 2026Binuksan ang Market
Aug 20, 2026, 11:11 AM ETResolution Source
https://www.jma.go.jp/bosai/map.html#contents=typhoon&lang=enResolver
0x69c47De9D...Tropical Storm Saudel, currently at about 40 mph sustained winds near 12°N 151°E in the western Pacific, sits in an environment poised for significant strengthening. Forecast guidance highlights easing vertical wind shear below 10 knots, traversal over elevated ocean heat content, and development of a poleward outflow channel tied to an upper-level trough, all favoring axisymmetrization and rapid intensification potential after the next 12 hours. Official agencies including JMA and JTWC project steady gains, with intensity aids showing high probabilities of substantial wind increases over three days. However, exact peak intensity hinges on precise timing of these factors, track proximity to land or shear gradients, and model spread in outflow and moisture profiles, producing the near-even market-implied odds across JMA-defined strength thresholds from tropical storm through violent typhoon categories. Updated model runs and satellite reconnaissance over the coming 48 hours will refine these variables ahead of any peak.
Eksperimental na AI-generated summary na nire-reference ang Polymarket data. Hindi ito trading advice at wala itong papel sa kung paano nire-resolve ang market na ito. · Na-update
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