Traders assign an implied 91.5% probability against an Israel-Turkey military clash before 2027 because both governments have channeled rivalry into diplomatic, legal, and proxy competition rather than direct confrontation. Sharp exchanges at the September 2026 UN General Assembly and Netanyahu’s subsequent order to prepare an ICC case against Erdogan over Kurdish policies and Hamas ties represent the latest escalation, yet Erdogan has publicly rejected inevitable-war scenarios and tied Israeli rhetoric to domestic electoral pressures ahead of Israel’s October 27 vote. The August 2026 Israeli strike on Syria’s Abu al-Duhur airbase remains the most recent military incident; subsequent Turkish deployments deeper into Syria elicited no Israeli response, while U.S. mediation efforts and mutual red-line signaling have contained risks. These patterns of calibrated signaling and third-party involvement sustain the current trader consensus.