Traders assign near-certainty to Spencer Pratt finishing over 25% in the June 2, 2026 Los Angeles mayoral primary because official tallies with more than 99% of ballots counted place him at roughly 25.5%, securing third place behind Karen Bass and Nithya Raman. His campaign gained unexpected momentum after the 2025 Palisades Fire destroyed his home, drawing attention from conservative voters frustrated with city leadership on homelessness and crime. Early election-night leads over Raman held up through the final count despite late shifts in mail ballots. The only realistic path to under 25% would require a massive, unprecedented recount error or disqualification of thousands of valid votes, both of which remain highly improbable given the current certified margin. This outcome aligns with the wisdom of crowds reflected in the market pricing.