Recent numerical weather prediction consensus from models including GFS and ECMWF indicates overnight lows in Ankara around 8–10°C on October 16, driven by northwest advection of cooler maritime air, persistent cloud cover, and scattered showers that limit daytime heating while enhancing radiative cooling after sunset. Ankara’s elevation near 870 m and autumnal seasonal transition further support minima several degrees below recent daytime averages. Official Turkish State Meteorological Service guidance notes temperatures 2–4°C below seasonal norms amid the unsettled pattern, positioning the 8°C outcome as the strongest market-implied probability while leaving room for variance depending on exact timing of precipitation and wind shifts.