**Current forecast consensus from GFS and similar models points to overnight lows of 7–9°C in Moscow on October 16**, driven by northeasterly flow behind recent rain and gradual clearing that limits further cooling. This autumnal pattern features moderate high pressure and dew points near 7–8°C, reducing the risk of sharper drops despite seasonal radiative cooling at latitude 55°N. Recent observations show persistent cloud cover and light northerly winds on the 15th holding temperatures above typical mid-October minima, while ensemble spreads highlight modest uncertainty in boundary-layer mixing. Traders appear to price in downside tail risks from potential model shifts or localized cold pooling, consistent with the leading 3°C-or-below bin, even as central outcomes cluster around observed guidance. Final overnight model runs and surface observations will refine resolution criteria before market close.