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Mundo·Germany

Next Chancellor of Germany before 2028?

icon for Next Chancellor of Germany before 2028?
Mundo·Germany

Next Chancellor of Germany before 2028?

No Next Chancellor before 2028 45%

Hendrik Wüst 26%

Markus Söder 16%

Boris Pistorius 9%

Polymarket

$34,064 Vol.

No Next Chancellor before 2028 45%

Hendrik Wüst 26%

Markus Söder 16%

Boris Pistorius 9%

Polymarket

$34,064 Vol.

icon for No Next Chancellor before 2028

No Next Chancellor before 2028

$26,576 Vol.

45%

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Hendrik Wüst

$1,840 Vol.

26%

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Markus Söder

$2,393 Vol.

16%

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Boris Pistorius

$683 Vol.

9%

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Felix Banaszak

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Alice Weidel

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Heidi Reichinnek

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Sahra Wagenknecht

$228 Vol.

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Tino Chrupalla

$228 Vol.

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Katharina Dröge

$263 Vol.

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Jens Spahn

$238 Vol.

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Carsten Linnemann

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Lars Klingbeil

$264 Vol.

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Friedrich Merz has served as Chancellor of Germany since May 6, 2025. This market will resolve to the next individual, other than Friedrich Merz, who assumes the office of Chancellor of Germany. To count for resolution, the individual must be elected Chancellor by the Bundestag and appointed by the Federal President. Any acting or caretaker Chancellor will not count toward the resolution of this market. If no such Chancellor takes office, or if Friedrich Merz is the next individual elected Chancellor, by December 31, 2027, 11:59 PM ET, this market will resolve to “No Next Chancellor before 2028”. The primary resolution source for this market will be official information from the Bundestag and the Federal Government of Germany; however, a consensus of credible reporting may also be used.Recent state election losses for Chancellor Friedrich Merz’s CDU, including its worst postwar result in Mecklenburg-Western Pomerania and further setbacks in Berlin, have intensified internal party discussions about a possible mid-term leadership change before the 2029 federal vote. These outcomes, alongside AfD gains and Merz’s low approval ratings, have elevated speculation around figures such as Hendrik Wüst and Markus Söder as potential successors within the CDU/CSU. The market’s tight pricing between continuity through 2028 and a swap reflects the absence of an open challenge, Merz’s stated intent to remain, and the influence of upcoming 2027 state contests that could shift coalition dynamics or force personnel adjustments. Trader assessments incorporate historical patterns of German chancellors weathering early-term pressure while acknowledging the risk of rapid developments in a fragmented political landscape.

Friedrich Merz has served as Chancellor of Germany since May 6, 2025.

This market will resolve to the next individual, other than Friedrich Merz, who assumes the office of Chancellor of Germany.

To count for resolution, the individual must be elected Chancellor by the Bundestag and appointed by the Federal President. Any acting or caretaker Chancellor will not count toward the resolution of this market.

If no such Chancellor takes office, or if Friedrich Merz is the next individual elected Chancellor, by December 31, 2027, 11:59 PM ET, this market will resolve to “No Next Chancellor before 2028”.

The primary resolution source for this market will be official information from the Bundestag and the Federal Government of Germany; however, a consensus of credible reporting may also be used.Friedrich Merz has served as Chancellor of Germany since May 6, 2025. This market will resolve to the next individual, other than Friedrich Merz, who assumes the office of Chancellor of Germany. To count for resolution, the individual must be elected Chancellor by the Bundestag and appointed by the Federal President. Any acting or caretaker Chancellor will not count toward the resolution of this market. If no such Chancellor takes office, or if Friedrich Merz is the next individual elected Chancellor, by December 31, 2027, 11:59 PM ET, this market will resolve to “No Next Chancellor before 2028”. The primary resolution source for this market will be official information from the Bundestag and the Federal Government of Germany; however, a consensus of credible reporting may also be used.
Volume
$34,064
Petsa ng Pagtatapos
Jan 1, 2028
Binuksan ang Market
Sep 15, 2026, 5:28 PM ET

Resolver

0x69c47De9D...
Friedrich Merz has served as Chancellor of Germany since May 6, 2025. This market will resolve to the next individual, other than Friedrich Merz, who assumes the office of Chancellor of Germany. To count for resolution, the individual must be elected Chancellor by the Bundestag and appointed by the Federal President. Any acting or caretaker Chancellor will not count toward the resolution of this market. If no such Chancellor takes office, or if Friedrich Merz is the next individual elected Chancellor, by December 31, 2027, 11:59 PM ET, this market will resolve to “No Next Chancellor before 2028”. The primary resolution source for this market will be official information from the Bundestag and the Federal Government of Germany; however, a consensus of credible reporting may also be used.Recent state election losses for Chancellor Friedrich Merz’s CDU, including its worst postwar result in Mecklenburg-Western Pomerania and further setbacks in Berlin, have intensified internal party discussions about a possible mid-term leadership change before the 2029 federal vote. These outcomes, alongside AfD gains and Merz’s low approval ratings, have elevated speculation around figures such as Hendrik Wüst and Markus Söder as potential successors within the CDU/CSU. The market’s tight pricing between continuity through 2028 and a swap reflects the absence of an open challenge, Merz’s stated intent to remain, and the influence of upcoming 2027 state contests that could shift coalition dynamics or force personnel adjustments. Trader assessments incorporate historical patterns of German chancellors weathering early-term pressure while acknowledging the risk of rapid developments in a fragmented political landscape.

Friedrich Merz has served as Chancellor of Germany since May 6, 2025.

This market will resolve to the next individual, other than Friedrich Merz, who assumes the office of Chancellor of Germany.

To count for resolution, the individual must be elected Chancellor by the Bundestag and appointed by the Federal President. Any acting or caretaker Chancellor will not count toward the resolution of this market.

If no such Chancellor takes office, or if Friedrich Merz is the next individual elected Chancellor, by December 31, 2027, 11:59 PM ET, this market will resolve to “No Next Chancellor before 2028”.

The primary resolution source for this market will be official information from the Bundestag and the Federal Government of Germany; however, a consensus of credible reporting may also be used.Friedrich Merz has served as Chancellor of Germany since May 6, 2025. This market will resolve to the next individual, other than Friedrich Merz, who assumes the office of Chancellor of Germany. To count for resolution, the individual must be elected Chancellor by the Bundestag and appointed by the Federal President. Any acting or caretaker Chancellor will not count toward the resolution of this market. If no such Chancellor takes office, or if Friedrich Merz is the next individual elected Chancellor, by December 31, 2027, 11:59 PM ET, this market will resolve to “No Next Chancellor before 2028”. The primary resolution source for this market will be official information from the Bundestag and the Federal Government of Germany; however, a consensus of credible reporting may also be used.
Volume
$34,064
Petsa ng Pagtatapos
Jan 1, 2028
Binuksan ang Market
Sep 15, 2026, 5:28 PM ET

Resolver

0x69c47De9D...

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Mga Madalas na Tanong

Ang "Next Chancellor of Germany before 2028?" ay isang prediction market sa Polymarket na may 13 posibleng outcomes kung saan bumibili at nagbebenta ang mga trader ng shares batay sa kanilang pinaniniwalaan na mangyayari. Ang kasalukuyang nangunguna ay "No Next Chancellor before 2028" sa 45%, sinusundan ng "Hendrik Wüst" sa 26%. Ang mga presyo ay sumasalamin sa real-time crowd-sourced probabilities. Halimbawa, ang isang share na naka-presyo sa 45¢ ay nagpapahiwatig na kolektibong itinatakda ng market ang 45% na tsansa sa outcome na iyon. Patuloy na nagbabago ang mga odds na ito habang tumutugon ang mga trader sa mga bagong development at impormasyon. Ang mga shares sa tamang outcome ay mare-redeem sa $1 bawat isa sa market resolution.

Sa ngayon, ang "Next Chancellor of Germany before 2028?" ay naka-generate ng $34.1K sa kabuuang trading volume mula nang ilunsad ang market noong Sep 15, 2026. Ang antas na ito ng trading activity ay sumasalamin sa malakas na engagement mula sa Polymarket community at tumutulong na matiyak na ang kasalukuyang odds ay sinusuportahan ng malawak na pool ng mga market participant. Maaari mong subaybayan ang live price movements at mag-trade sa anumang outcome nang direkta sa pahinang ito.

Para mag-trade sa "Next Chancellor of Germany before 2028?," i-browse ang 13 available na outcomes na nakalista sa pahinang ito. Ang bawat outcome ay may kasalukuyang presyo na kumakatawan sa implied probability ng market. Para kumuha ng posisyon, piliin ang outcome na pinaniniwalaan mong pinaka-malamang, piliin ang "Yes" para mag-trade pabor dito o "No" para mag-trade laban dito, ilagay ang iyong halaga, at i-click ang "Trade." Kung tama ang iyong napiling outcome kapag na-resolve ang market, nagbabayad ang iyong "Yes" shares ng $1 bawat isa. Kung mali, nagbabayad ang mga ito ng $0. Maaari ka ring magbenta ng iyong shares anumang oras bago ang resolution kung gusto mong i-lock in ang kita o bawasan ang pagkalugi.

Ang kasalukuyang frontrunner para sa "Next Chancellor of Germany before 2028?" ay "No Next Chancellor before 2028" sa 45%, ibig sabihin itinatakda ng market ang 45% na tsansa sa outcome na iyon. Ang sumunod na pinaka-malapit na outcome ay "Hendrik Wüst" sa 26%. Nag-a-update ang mga odds na ito sa real-time habang bumibili at nagbebenta ang mga trader ng shares, kaya sinasalamin nila ang pinakabagong kolektibong view kung ano ang pinaka-malamang na mangyari. Bumalik nang madalas o i-bookmark ang pahinang ito para sundan kung paano nagbabago ang odds habang lumilitaw ang bagong impormasyon.

Ang mga resolution rules para sa "Next Chancellor of Germany before 2028?" ay tiyak na nagde-define kung ano ang kailangang mangyari para sa bawat outcome na maideklara bilang panalo — kasama ang mga opisyal na data source na ginagamit para matukoy ang resulta. Maaari mong i-review ang kumpletong resolution criteria sa "Rules" section sa pahinang ito sa itaas ng mga komento. Inirerekomenda namin na basahin nang mabuti ang mga patakaran bago mag-trade, dahil tinutukoy nila ang mga tiyak na kondisyon, edge cases, at mga source na namamahala kung paano nise-settle ang market na ito.