**Historical averages place NYC October precipitation near 4.4 inches at Central Park, aligning closely with the market's leading 3–4.25" bin.** Seasonal outlooks, including the Old Farmer’s Almanac, currently favor slightly below-normal totals for the Northeast amid a strong El Niño that is expected to influence the jet stream and storm tracks. Early-month guidance shows a cool, mostly dry start transitioning to scattered showers mid-month, with model consensus indicating limited potential for extreme wet or dry anomalies given the time of year. ENSO-driven variability introduces uncertainty, as El Niño composites can support drier conditions in parts of the Northeast while dynamical models show mixed signals. Upcoming weekly and monthly updates from NOAA and the Climate Prediction Center will provide the next key data points for refining these probabilities.