Recent Starship test flights, including the July 2026 Flight 13 with its V3 vehicle, have advanced booster recovery milestones through repeated tower catches, yet the upper stage remains unrecovered for reuse after controlled splashdowns. Progress on heat shield durability and in-space engine relights supports payload deployment like Starlink V3, but full rapid reusability requires demonstrated ship catch-and-reflight cycles plus propellant transfer, none of which have occurred by early September 2026. Elon Musk has targeted the first ship reflight for late 2026 or early 2027, while regulatory approvals and production scaling add further timelines. These technical and schedule realities underpin trader consensus favoring the “No” outcome before year-end 2026.