Polymarket traders assign a leading 30% implied probability to the S&P 500 (SPX) closing 2026 between $7,000-$7,500, hugging current levels near 7,444, as April 2026 CPI surged to 3.8% year-over-year—its highest since May 2023—dampening expectations for Federal Reserve rate cuts from the 3.5%-3.75% fed funds range. Robust Q1 earnings, with 89% of companies beating estimates and analysts lifting 2026 EPS projections to $330 (22% growth), bolster odds for $7,500-$8,000 (15%), driven by AI capital spending amid resilient GDP. Lower bins reflect recession risks if inflation persists, with the fragmented pricing highlighting swing factors like June 16-17 FOMC guidance and upcoming CPI releases.
Eksperimental na AI-generated summary na nire-reference ang Polymarket data. Hindi ito trading advice at wala itong papel sa kung paano nire-resolve ang market na ito. · Na-updateWhat will S&P 500 (SPX) close at end of 2026?
What will S&P 500 (SPX) close at end of 2026?
$7,000-$7,500 29%
$7,500-$8,000 17%
$6,500-$7,000 15%
>$8,000 15%
$25,377 Vol.
$25,377 Vol.
<$6,000
14%
$6,000-$6,500
15%
$6,500-$7,000
23%
$7,000-$7,500
27%
$7,500-$8,000
25%
>$8,000
22%
$7,000-$7,500 29%
$7,500-$8,000 17%
$6,500-$7,000 15%
>$8,000 15%
$25,377 Vol.
$25,377 Vol.
<$6,000
14%
$6,000-$6,500
15%
$6,500-$7,000
23%
$7,000-$7,500
27%
$7,500-$8,000
25%
>$8,000
22%
If the reported value falls exactly between two brackets, then this market will resolve to the higher range bracket.
If the final trading day of the month is shortened (for example, due to a market-holiday schedule), the official closing price published for that shortened session will still be used for resolution.
If no official closing price is published for that session (for example, due to a trading halt into the close, system issue, delisting, or other disruption), the market will use the last valid on-exchange trade price of the regular session as the effective closing price.
The resolution source for this market is Yahoo Finance, specifically the S&P 500 (SPX) "Close" prices available at https://finance.yahoo.com/quote/%5EGSPC/history, published under "Historical Prices."
Binuksan ang Market: Jan 6, 2026, 9:22 PM ET
Resolution Source
https://finance.yahoo.com/quote/%5EGSPC/historyResolver
0x2F5e3684c...If the reported value falls exactly between two brackets, then this market will resolve to the higher range bracket.
If the final trading day of the month is shortened (for example, due to a market-holiday schedule), the official closing price published for that shortened session will still be used for resolution.
If no official closing price is published for that session (for example, due to a trading halt into the close, system issue, delisting, or other disruption), the market will use the last valid on-exchange trade price of the regular session as the effective closing price.
The resolution source for this market is Yahoo Finance, specifically the S&P 500 (SPX) "Close" prices available at https://finance.yahoo.com/quote/%5EGSPC/history, published under "Historical Prices."
Resolution Source
https://finance.yahoo.com/quote/%5EGSPC/historyResolver
0x2F5e3684c...Polymarket traders assign a leading 30% implied probability to the S&P 500 (SPX) closing 2026 between $7,000-$7,500, hugging current levels near 7,444, as April 2026 CPI surged to 3.8% year-over-year—its highest since May 2023—dampening expectations for Federal Reserve rate cuts from the 3.5%-3.75% fed funds range. Robust Q1 earnings, with 89% of companies beating estimates and analysts lifting 2026 EPS projections to $330 (22% growth), bolster odds for $7,500-$8,000 (15%), driven by AI capital spending amid resilient GDP. Lower bins reflect recession risks if inflation persists, with the fragmented pricing highlighting swing factors like June 16-17 FOMC guidance and upcoming CPI releases.
Eksperimental na AI-generated summary na nire-reference ang Polymarket data. Hindi ito trading advice at wala itong papel sa kung paano nire-resolve ang market na ito. · Na-update
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