Ongoing Iranian restrictions and military oversight of the Strait of Hormuz, stemming from the February 2026 U.S.-Israel conflict escalation, have kept commercial transits at roughly 5-10 percent of pre-crisis levels through mid-May. Shipping data from firms like Kpler and Lloyd’s List confirm daily passages remain in the single digits against a normal range of 60-140 vessels, with insurance cancellations, routing uncertainty, and IRGC controls persisting even after the April ceasefire. This sustained disruption, including thousands of stranded vessels and limited eastbound flows, underpins the 100 percent trader consensus on “No.” While Iran’s recent announcements of a managed transit mechanism and gradual volume increases could eventually ease conditions, full normalization would require verifiable high-volume, low-risk commercial operations without ongoing blockades or premium surcharges.
Eksperimental na AI-generated summary na nire-reference ang Polymarket data. Hindi ito trading advice at wala itong papel sa kung paano nire-resolve ang market na ito. · Na-updateStrait of Hormuz traffic returns to normal by May 15?
Strait of Hormuz traffic returns to normal by May 15?
$17,524,133 Vol.
$17,524,133 Vol.
May 15, 2026
$17,524,133 Vol.
$17,524,133 Vol.
May 15, 2026
This market will resolve to “Yes” if IMF Portwatch publishes a 7-day moving average of transit calls (“Arrivals of Ships”) for the Strait of Hormuz equal to or above 60 for any date between market creation and May 15, 2026. Otherwise, this market will resolve to “No”.
Daily transit calls include container, dry bulk, roll-on/roll-off, general cargo, and tanker ships. Ships not reported by IMF Portwatch will not be considered.
This market will resolve as soon as IMF Portwatch publishes a 7-day moving average of transit calls equal to or above the specified level, or once data has been published for the final date in the specified period and no such value has been published. If no data has been published for the final date of the specified period within 14 calendar days (ET) after the end of that period, this market will resolve based on data published up to that point.
Revisions to previously published data points made within this market’s timeframe will be considered. However, they will not disqualify a previously published data point from qualifying. Revisions to previously published data points after data is published for May 15, 2026, however, will not be considered.
The resolution source for this market will be IMF Portwatch, specifically the transit calls data published for the Strait of Hormuz at https://portwatch.imf.org/pages/cb5856222a5b4105adc6ee7e880a1730, both in the chart and through downloadable files.Ongoing Iranian restrictions and military oversight of the Strait of Hormuz, stemming from the February 2026 U.S.-Israel conflict escalation, have kept commercial transits at roughly 5-10 percent of pre-crisis levels through mid-May. Shipping data from firms like Kpler and Lloyd’s List confirm daily passages remain in the single digits against a normal range of 60-140 vessels, with insurance cancellations, routing uncertainty, and IRGC controls persisting even after the April ceasefire. This sustained disruption, including thousands of stranded vessels and limited eastbound flows, underpins the 100 percent trader consensus on “No.” While Iran’s recent announcements of a managed transit mechanism and gradual volume increases could eventually ease conditions, full normalization would require verifiable high-volume, low-risk commercial operations without ongoing blockades or premium surcharges.
This market will resolve to “Yes” if IMF Portwatch publishes a 7-day moving average of transit calls (“Arrivals of Ships”) for the Strait of Hormuz equal to or above 60 for any date between market creation and May 15, 2026. Otherwise, this market will resolve to “No”.
Daily transit calls include container, dry bulk, roll-on/roll-off, general cargo, and tanker ships. Ships not reported by IMF Portwatch will not be considered.
This market will resolve as soon as IMF Portwatch publishes a 7-day moving average of transit calls equal to or above the specified level, or once data has been published for the final date in the specified period and no such value has been published. If no data has been published for the final date of the specified period within 14 calendar days (ET) after the end of that period, this market will resolve based on data published up to that point.
Revisions to previously published data points made within this market’s timeframe will be considered. However, they will not disqualify a previously published data point from qualifying. Revisions to previously published data points after data is published for May 15, 2026, however, will not be considered.
The resolution source for this market will be IMF Portwatch, specifically the transit calls data published for the Strait of Hormuz at https://portwatch.imf.org/pages/cb5856222a5b4105adc6ee7e880a1730, both in the chart and through downloadable files.
Daily transit calls include container, dry bulk, roll-on/roll-off, general cargo, and tanker ships. Ships not reported by IMF Portwatch will not be considered.
This market will resolve as soon as IMF Portwatch publishes a 7-day moving average of transit calls equal to or above the specified level, or once data has been published for the final date in the specified period and no such value has been published. If no data has been published for the final date of the specified period within 14 calendar days (ET) after the end of that period, this market will resolve based on data published up to that point.
Revisions to previously published data points made within this market’s timeframe will be considered. However, they will not disqualify a previously published data point from qualifying. Revisions to previously published data points after data is published for May 15, 2026, however, will not be considered.
The resolution source for this market will be IMF Portwatch, specifically the transit calls data published for the Strait of Hormuz at https://portwatch.imf.org/pages/cb5856222a5b4105adc6ee7e880a1730, both in the chart and through downloadable files.
Binuksan ang Market: Apr 22, 2026, 2:10 PM ET
Volume
$17,524,133Petsa ng Pagtatapos
May 15, 2026Binuksan ang Market
Apr 22, 2026, 2:10 PM ETResolver
0x65070BE91...This market will resolve to “Yes” if IMF Portwatch publishes a 7-day moving average of transit calls (“Arrivals of Ships”) for the Strait of Hormuz equal to or above 60 for any date between market creation and May 15, 2026. Otherwise, this market will resolve to “No”.
Daily transit calls include container, dry bulk, roll-on/roll-off, general cargo, and tanker ships. Ships not reported by IMF Portwatch will not be considered.
This market will resolve as soon as IMF Portwatch publishes a 7-day moving average of transit calls equal to or above the specified level, or once data has been published for the final date in the specified period and no such value has been published. If no data has been published for the final date of the specified period within 14 calendar days (ET) after the end of that period, this market will resolve based on data published up to that point.
Revisions to previously published data points made within this market’s timeframe will be considered. However, they will not disqualify a previously published data point from qualifying. Revisions to previously published data points after data is published for May 15, 2026, however, will not be considered.
The resolution source for this market will be IMF Portwatch, specifically the transit calls data published for the Strait of Hormuz at https://portwatch.imf.org/pages/cb5856222a5b4105adc6ee7e880a1730, both in the chart and through downloadable files.Ongoing Iranian restrictions and military oversight of the Strait of Hormuz, stemming from the February 2026 U.S.-Israel conflict escalation, have kept commercial transits at roughly 5-10 percent of pre-crisis levels through mid-May. Shipping data from firms like Kpler and Lloyd’s List confirm daily passages remain in the single digits against a normal range of 60-140 vessels, with insurance cancellations, routing uncertainty, and IRGC controls persisting even after the April ceasefire. This sustained disruption, including thousands of stranded vessels and limited eastbound flows, underpins the 100 percent trader consensus on “No.” While Iran’s recent announcements of a managed transit mechanism and gradual volume increases could eventually ease conditions, full normalization would require verifiable high-volume, low-risk commercial operations without ongoing blockades or premium surcharges.
This market will resolve to “Yes” if IMF Portwatch publishes a 7-day moving average of transit calls (“Arrivals of Ships”) for the Strait of Hormuz equal to or above 60 for any date between market creation and May 15, 2026. Otherwise, this market will resolve to “No”.
Daily transit calls include container, dry bulk, roll-on/roll-off, general cargo, and tanker ships. Ships not reported by IMF Portwatch will not be considered.
This market will resolve as soon as IMF Portwatch publishes a 7-day moving average of transit calls equal to or above the specified level, or once data has been published for the final date in the specified period and no such value has been published. If no data has been published for the final date of the specified period within 14 calendar days (ET) after the end of that period, this market will resolve based on data published up to that point.
Revisions to previously published data points made within this market’s timeframe will be considered. However, they will not disqualify a previously published data point from qualifying. Revisions to previously published data points after data is published for May 15, 2026, however, will not be considered.
The resolution source for this market will be IMF Portwatch, specifically the transit calls data published for the Strait of Hormuz at https://portwatch.imf.org/pages/cb5856222a5b4105adc6ee7e880a1730, both in the chart and through downloadable files.
Daily transit calls include container, dry bulk, roll-on/roll-off, general cargo, and tanker ships. Ships not reported by IMF Portwatch will not be considered.
This market will resolve as soon as IMF Portwatch publishes a 7-day moving average of transit calls equal to or above the specified level, or once data has been published for the final date in the specified period and no such value has been published. If no data has been published for the final date of the specified period within 14 calendar days (ET) after the end of that period, this market will resolve based on data published up to that point.
Revisions to previously published data points made within this market’s timeframe will be considered. However, they will not disqualify a previously published data point from qualifying. Revisions to previously published data points after data is published for May 15, 2026, however, will not be considered.
The resolution source for this market will be IMF Portwatch, specifically the transit calls data published for the Strait of Hormuz at https://portwatch.imf.org/pages/cb5856222a5b4105adc6ee7e880a1730, both in the chart and through downloadable files.
Volume
$17,524,133Petsa ng Pagtatapos
May 15, 2026Binuksan ang Market
Apr 22, 2026, 2:10 PM ETResolver
0x65070BE91...Ongoing Iranian restrictions and military oversight of the Strait of Hormuz, stemming from the February 2026 U.S.-Israel conflict escalation, have kept commercial transits at roughly 5-10 percent of pre-crisis levels through mid-May. Shipping data from firms like Kpler and Lloyd’s List confirm daily passages remain in the single digits against a normal range of 60-140 vessels, with insurance cancellations, routing uncertainty, and IRGC controls persisting even after the April ceasefire. This sustained disruption, including thousands of stranded vessels and limited eastbound flows, underpins the 100 percent trader consensus on “No.” While Iran’s recent announcements of a managed transit mechanism and gradual volume increases could eventually ease conditions, full normalization would require verifiable high-volume, low-risk commercial operations without ongoing blockades or premium surcharges.
Eksperimental na AI-generated summary na nire-reference ang Polymarket data. Hindi ito trading advice at wala itong papel sa kung paano nire-resolve ang market na ito. · Na-update
Mag-ingat sa mga external link.
Mag-ingat sa mga external link.
Mga Madalas na Tanong