**The 75.5% trader consensus favoring “No” reflects the limited scope of the U.S. operation against Venezuela in early January 2026 and the absence of comparable actions elsewhere in the region since then.** U.S. forces conducted a brief special operation on January 3 that captured Nicolás Maduro and involved targeted strikes on air defenses and infrastructure, framed officially as a law-enforcement action tied to narcotics charges rather than a broad territorial invasion or occupation. Subsequent U.S. strikes in Venezuela, including those against gang targets in June 2026, have remained narrow and have not expanded into sustained ground campaigns or operations against other Latin American states. No public evidence indicates preparations for additional invasions of countries such as Cuba, Nicaragua, or Mexico through the remainder of the year, and regional diplomatic and military responses have not triggered wider escalation. The market therefore prices the low likelihood of a qualifying full-scale invasion occurring before December 31.