The U.S. conducted a limited January 2026 special operation in Venezuela involving airstrikes and a targeted raid to capture Nicolás Maduro, explicitly framed by officials as not constituting an invasion or occupation. Subsequent policy has centered on counter-cartel maritime strikes, sanctions, visa restrictions, and joint operations with partners such as Ecuador against designated terrorist organizations, without sustained ground campaigns or territorial control in any Latin American country. Senior military statements have ruled out preparations for actions like a Cuba invasion, while related markets assign low odds to scenarios involving Mexico or Colombia. With roughly four months remaining in 2026 and no escalation triggers evident amid regional diplomatic pushback and congressional oversight considerations, trader consensus assigns an 88.5% probability to no invasion occurring.