President Recep Tayyip Erdoğan and the AKP have continued advocating for a new “civilian constitution” through mid-2026, following the 2025 appointment of a legal drafting commission and supportive statements from Parliament Speaker Numan Kurtulmuş. However, calling a referendum requires 360 votes in the Grand National Assembly, where the ruling coalition holds roughly 321 seats and has not secured the additional backing needed from opposition parties or the DEM Party. This legislative shortfall, combined with competing priorities such as the PKK peace process and coalition arithmetic, has kept preparations from advancing to a formal announcement. Traders therefore assign high probability to no referendum being called by year-end, viewing the current majority threshold and lack of cross-party consensus as the dominant constraints.
Eksperimental na AI-generated summary na nire-reference ang Polymarket data. Hindi ito trading advice at wala itong papel sa kung paano nire-resolve ang market na ito. · Na-update17% tsansa
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Dec 31, 2026
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Dec 31, 2026
This market will resolve to “Yes” if a referendum to adopt a new constitution in Turkey is officially announced by December 31, 2026, 11:59 PM ET. Otherwise, this market will resolve to “No”.
A qualifying referendum refers to any nationwide vote in Turkey to adopt a new constitution. Referenda to approve one or more amendments to the Constitution will not qualify.
Qualifying announcements must specify a date for the referendum or definitively announce that a referendum will be held. An announcement by the specified date will qualify regardless of when the referendum is scheduled to be held.
If a new constitution is officially adopted within the specified timeframe without a referendum (e.g., via the required parliamentary supermajority), this market will immediately resolve this market to “Yes.”
The primary resolution source for this market will be official information from the government of Turkey; however, a consensus of credible reporting may also be used.President Recep Tayyip Erdoğan and the AKP have continued advocating for a new “civilian constitution” through mid-2026, following the 2025 appointment of a legal drafting commission and supportive statements from Parliament Speaker Numan Kurtulmuş. However, calling a referendum requires 360 votes in the Grand National Assembly, where the ruling coalition holds roughly 321 seats and has not secured the additional backing needed from opposition parties or the DEM Party. This legislative shortfall, combined with competing priorities such as the PKK peace process and coalition arithmetic, has kept preparations from advancing to a formal announcement. Traders therefore assign high probability to no referendum being called by year-end, viewing the current majority threshold and lack of cross-party consensus as the dominant constraints.
This market will resolve to “Yes” if a referendum to adopt a new constitution in Turkey is officially announced by December 31, 2026, 11:59 PM ET. Otherwise, this market will resolve to “No”.
A qualifying referendum refers to any nationwide vote in Turkey to adopt a new constitution. Referenda to approve one or more amendments to the Constitution will not qualify.
Qualifying announcements must specify a date for the referendum or definitively announce that a referendum will be held. An announcement by the specified date will qualify regardless of when the referendum is scheduled to be held.
If a new constitution is officially adopted within the specified timeframe without a referendum (e.g., via the required parliamentary supermajority), this market will immediately resolve this market to “Yes.”
The primary resolution source for this market will be official information from the government of Turkey; however, a consensus of credible reporting may also be used.
A qualifying referendum refers to any nationwide vote in Turkey to adopt a new constitution. Referenda to approve one or more amendments to the Constitution will not qualify.
Qualifying announcements must specify a date for the referendum or definitively announce that a referendum will be held. An announcement by the specified date will qualify regardless of when the referendum is scheduled to be held.
If a new constitution is officially adopted within the specified timeframe without a referendum (e.g., via the required parliamentary supermajority), this market will immediately resolve this market to “Yes.”
The primary resolution source for this market will be official information from the government of Turkey; however, a consensus of credible reporting may also be used.
Binuksan ang Market: Apr 1, 2026, 4:01 PM ET
Volume
$6,170Petsa ng Pagtatapos
Dec 31, 2026Binuksan ang Market
Apr 1, 2026, 4:01 PM ETResolver
0x65070BE91...This market will resolve to “Yes” if a referendum to adopt a new constitution in Turkey is officially announced by December 31, 2026, 11:59 PM ET. Otherwise, this market will resolve to “No”.
A qualifying referendum refers to any nationwide vote in Turkey to adopt a new constitution. Referenda to approve one or more amendments to the Constitution will not qualify.
Qualifying announcements must specify a date for the referendum or definitively announce that a referendum will be held. An announcement by the specified date will qualify regardless of when the referendum is scheduled to be held.
If a new constitution is officially adopted within the specified timeframe without a referendum (e.g., via the required parliamentary supermajority), this market will immediately resolve this market to “Yes.”
The primary resolution source for this market will be official information from the government of Turkey; however, a consensus of credible reporting may also be used.President Recep Tayyip Erdoğan and the AKP have continued advocating for a new “civilian constitution” through mid-2026, following the 2025 appointment of a legal drafting commission and supportive statements from Parliament Speaker Numan Kurtulmuş. However, calling a referendum requires 360 votes in the Grand National Assembly, where the ruling coalition holds roughly 321 seats and has not secured the additional backing needed from opposition parties or the DEM Party. This legislative shortfall, combined with competing priorities such as the PKK peace process and coalition arithmetic, has kept preparations from advancing to a formal announcement. Traders therefore assign high probability to no referendum being called by year-end, viewing the current majority threshold and lack of cross-party consensus as the dominant constraints.
This market will resolve to “Yes” if a referendum to adopt a new constitution in Turkey is officially announced by December 31, 2026, 11:59 PM ET. Otherwise, this market will resolve to “No”.
A qualifying referendum refers to any nationwide vote in Turkey to adopt a new constitution. Referenda to approve one or more amendments to the Constitution will not qualify.
Qualifying announcements must specify a date for the referendum or definitively announce that a referendum will be held. An announcement by the specified date will qualify regardless of when the referendum is scheduled to be held.
If a new constitution is officially adopted within the specified timeframe without a referendum (e.g., via the required parliamentary supermajority), this market will immediately resolve this market to “Yes.”
The primary resolution source for this market will be official information from the government of Turkey; however, a consensus of credible reporting may also be used.
A qualifying referendum refers to any nationwide vote in Turkey to adopt a new constitution. Referenda to approve one or more amendments to the Constitution will not qualify.
Qualifying announcements must specify a date for the referendum or definitively announce that a referendum will be held. An announcement by the specified date will qualify regardless of when the referendum is scheduled to be held.
If a new constitution is officially adopted within the specified timeframe without a referendum (e.g., via the required parliamentary supermajority), this market will immediately resolve this market to “Yes.”
The primary resolution source for this market will be official information from the government of Turkey; however, a consensus of credible reporting may also be used.
Volume
$6,170Petsa ng Pagtatapos
Dec 31, 2026Binuksan ang Market
Apr 1, 2026, 4:01 PM ETResolver
0x65070BE91...President Recep Tayyip Erdoğan and the AKP have continued advocating for a new “civilian constitution” through mid-2026, following the 2025 appointment of a legal drafting commission and supportive statements from Parliament Speaker Numan Kurtulmuş. However, calling a referendum requires 360 votes in the Grand National Assembly, where the ruling coalition holds roughly 321 seats and has not secured the additional backing needed from opposition parties or the DEM Party. This legislative shortfall, combined with competing priorities such as the PKK peace process and coalition arithmetic, has kept preparations from advancing to a formal announcement. Traders therefore assign high probability to no referendum being called by year-end, viewing the current majority threshold and lack of cross-party consensus as the dominant constraints.
Eksperimental na AI-generated summary na nire-reference ang Polymarket data. Hindi ito trading advice at wala itong papel sa kung paano nire-resolve ang market na ito. · Na-update
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