Recent UAE-Qatari diplomatic engagement has reinforced trader expectations that relations will remain intact through 2026. Following a terrorist incident targeting Qatar, the UAE Ministry of Foreign Affairs issued a public statement of solidarity, while the two governments concluded the seventh session of their Joint Supreme Committee in Abu Dhabi on May 6 and signed multiple economic, developmental, and technological agreements the next day. These steps build directly on the 2021 Al-Ula reconciliation framework that restored full diplomatic ties and reopened embassies, with ongoing high-level contacts between President Mohammed bin Zayed and Emir Tamim bin Hamad Al Thani underscoring shared Gulf security priorities. With no verified escalation signals or opposing alignments in regional disputes, the implied probability of severance stays low at roughly 6.5 percent for Yes. A sudden shift in Gulf alignments or an unforeseen bilateral dispute could still alter that assessment before year-end.