Recent U.S. sanctions waivers under General License X, effective through August 21, have permitted limited Iranian oil exports and dollar-denominated transactions, injecting foreign currency inflows that have supported the rial near 1.86 million per USD in open markets. Traders assign the highest probabilities to the 1.8–2.0 million range at month-end because the temporary authorization expires just before the resolution date, creating uncertainty over extension amid ongoing nuclear and regional negotiations. Persistent high inflation, infrastructure damage from prior conflicts, and restricted banking access continue to pressure reserves, while any diplomatic progress could moderate further depreciation. The distribution around current levels reflects this balance between short-term relief and structural sanctions risks.