Recent rainfall across southern Germany and the Alpine headwaters has begun lifting Rhine gauge readings from mid-August record lows, with Kaub rising from near 10 cm to around 70 cm and similar modest gains at other stations. Traders appear to price in additional precipitation and typical late-summer inflows as sufficient to restore normal navigation depths within days, producing near-certain consensus on a return before September 1. Persistent low-water constraints still limit fully loaded barges and force partial loads or modal shifts, yet the market reflects expectations of quick stabilization. Extended dry weather, below-average upstream runoff, or delayed seasonal rains could realistically push recovery into mid-September or later.
Eksperimental na AI-generated summary na nire-reference ang Polymarket data. Hindi ito trading advice at wala itong papel sa kung paano nire-resolve ang market na ito. · Na-updateWhen will the Rhine River return to normal levels?
Before September 1, 2026 100.0%
September 1 - 14, 2026 <1%
September 15 - 30, 2026 <1%
October 1 - 31, 2026 <1%
$114,890 Vol.
$114,890 Vol.
Before September 1, 2026
Yes
September 1 - 14, 2026
No
September 15 - 30, 2026
No
October 1 - 31, 2026
No
Does not return by November 1, 2026
No
Before September 1, 2026 100.0%
September 1 - 14, 2026 <1%
September 15 - 30, 2026 <1%
October 1 - 31, 2026 <1%
$114,890 Vol.
$114,890 Vol.
Before September 1, 2026
Yes
September 1 - 14, 2026
No
September 15 - 30, 2026
No
October 1 - 31, 2026
No
Does not return by November 1, 2026
No
"Does not return by November 1, 2026" resolves "Yes" if no reading at or above 77 centimeters is recorded at the Kaub gauge at any time on or before October 31, 2026 11:59 PM UTC. Readings after this cutoff are not considered, and any return to normal levels occurring on or after November 1, 2026 does not affect resolution.
The resolution is triggered by the first reading at or above 77 centimeters recorded on or after the market's start, representing a rise back to the threshold. A single reading at or above 77 centimeters is sufficient to trigger resolution; transient spikes count, and the water level does not need to be sustained at or above 77 centimeters for any period.
The bracket containing the timestamp of the first reading at or above 77 centimeters resolves "Yes"; all other brackets resolve "No".
The primary resolution source for this market will be PegelOnline (https://www.pegelonline.wsv.de/gast/stammdaten?pegelnr=25700100). If PegelOnline is unavailable, this market may resolve based on a consensus of credible reporting.
Binuksan ang Market: Aug 11, 2026, 11:08 AM ET
Resolution Source
https://www.pegelonline.wsv.de/gast/stammdaten?pegelnr=25700100Resolver
0x69c47De9D...Na-propose ang outcome: Yes
Walang dispute
Pinal na outcome: Yes
"Does not return by November 1, 2026" resolves "Yes" if no reading at or above 77 centimeters is recorded at the Kaub gauge at any time on or before October 31, 2026 11:59 PM UTC. Readings after this cutoff are not considered, and any return to normal levels occurring on or after November 1, 2026 does not affect resolution.
The resolution is triggered by the first reading at or above 77 centimeters recorded on or after the market's start, representing a rise back to the threshold. A single reading at or above 77 centimeters is sufficient to trigger resolution; transient spikes count, and the water level does not need to be sustained at or above 77 centimeters for any period.
The bracket containing the timestamp of the first reading at or above 77 centimeters resolves "Yes"; all other brackets resolve "No".
The primary resolution source for this market will be PegelOnline (https://www.pegelonline.wsv.de/gast/stammdaten?pegelnr=25700100). If PegelOnline is unavailable, this market may resolve based on a consensus of credible reporting.
Resolution Source
https://www.pegelonline.wsv.de/gast/stammdaten?pegelnr=25700100Resolver
0x69c47De9D...Na-propose ang outcome: Yes
Walang dispute
Pinal na outcome: Yes
Recent rainfall across southern Germany and the Alpine headwaters has begun lifting Rhine gauge readings from mid-August record lows, with Kaub rising from near 10 cm to around 70 cm and similar modest gains at other stations. Traders appear to price in additional precipitation and typical late-summer inflows as sufficient to restore normal navigation depths within days, producing near-certain consensus on a return before September 1. Persistent low-water constraints still limit fully loaded barges and force partial loads or modal shifts, yet the market reflects expectations of quick stabilization. Extended dry weather, below-average upstream runoff, or delayed seasonal rains could realistically push recovery into mid-September or later.
Eksperimental na AI-generated summary na nire-reference ang Polymarket data. Hindi ito trading advice at wala itong papel sa kung paano nire-resolve ang market na ito. · Na-update



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