Trader consensus heavily favors “None in 2026” because frontier large language models currently top out around 1505–1510 Elo on the LMSYS Chatbot Arena, with Claude Opus 4.7 and GPT-5.5 Pro leading after April releases. Anthropic’s 33 % share stems from its rapid cadence—Opus 4.6 in February followed by the April 16 launch of Opus 4.7, which delivered measurable gains in coding and agentic tasks—yet even these incremental advances leave a sizable gap to the 1550 threshold. Google’s 10.5 % reflects steady Gemini 3.1 Pro updates, while OpenAI and xAI trail further behind. With only seven months left and no announced model expected to close the remaining 40–50 points quickly, traders see limited realistic paths to a 1550 score before year-end.
Eksperimental na AI-generated summary na nire-reference ang Polymarket data. Hindi ito trading advice at wala itong papel sa kung paano nire-resolve ang market na ito. · Na-updateWhich company's AI will first hit 1550 on Chatbot Arena in 2026?
None in 2026 57%
Anthropic 34%
Google 11%
OpenAI 2.8%
$54,452 Vol.
$54,452 Vol.

None in 2026
62%

Anthropic
34%

11%

OpenAI
3%

xAI
2%

Alibaba
1%

Mistral
<1%

DeepSeek
<1%

Z.ai
<1%
None in 2026 57%
Anthropic 34%
Google 11%
OpenAI 2.8%
$54,452 Vol.
$54,452 Vol.

None in 2026
62%

Anthropic
34%

11%

OpenAI
3%

xAI
2%

Alibaba
1%

Mistral
<1%

DeepSeek
<1%

Z.ai
<1%
Results from the "Text Arena" section on the leaderboard/text tab of https://lmarena.ai/ with the style control unchecked (https://arena.ai/leaderboard/text/overall-no-style-control) will be used to resolve this market.
If no company's model reaches 1550+ Arena Score by the specified time, this market will resolve to "None in 2026".
If the first model to reach a 1550+ Arena Score belongs to any company other than the listed ones, this market will be resolved to "Other".
The resolution source for this market is the Chatbot Arena LLM Leaderboard found at https://lmarena.ai/. If this resolution source becomes unavailable, the market will remain open until it is accessible again. If it becomes permanently unavailable, resolution will be based on another credible source.
Binuksan ang Market: Feb 13, 2026, 4:42 PM ET
Resolver
0x2F5e3684c...Results from the "Text Arena" section on the leaderboard/text tab of https://lmarena.ai/ with the style control unchecked (https://arena.ai/leaderboard/text/overall-no-style-control) will be used to resolve this market.
If no company's model reaches 1550+ Arena Score by the specified time, this market will resolve to "None in 2026".
If the first model to reach a 1550+ Arena Score belongs to any company other than the listed ones, this market will be resolved to "Other".
The resolution source for this market is the Chatbot Arena LLM Leaderboard found at https://lmarena.ai/. If this resolution source becomes unavailable, the market will remain open until it is accessible again. If it becomes permanently unavailable, resolution will be based on another credible source.
Resolver
0x2F5e3684c...Trader consensus heavily favors “None in 2026” because frontier large language models currently top out around 1505–1510 Elo on the LMSYS Chatbot Arena, with Claude Opus 4.7 and GPT-5.5 Pro leading after April releases. Anthropic’s 33 % share stems from its rapid cadence—Opus 4.6 in February followed by the April 16 launch of Opus 4.7, which delivered measurable gains in coding and agentic tasks—yet even these incremental advances leave a sizable gap to the 1550 threshold. Google’s 10.5 % reflects steady Gemini 3.1 Pro updates, while OpenAI and xAI trail further behind. With only seven months left and no announced model expected to close the remaining 40–50 points quickly, traders see limited realistic paths to a 1550 score before year-end.
Eksperimental na AI-generated summary na nire-reference ang Polymarket data. Hindi ito trading advice at wala itong papel sa kung paano nire-resolve ang market na ito. · Na-update
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