Recent auction cycles underscore why traders assign roughly 72.5% implied probability to “No.” The 2025 Klimt portrait that fetched $236.4 million and the May 2026 Pollock that reached $181.2 million both stemmed from major single-owner estates now largely cleared, leaving thinner pipelines of blue-chip works with credible $150 million-plus estimates for the final months of 2026. September evening sales at Sotheby’s and Christie’s produced solid totals but no individual lots approaching the threshold, and no comparable consignments have been announced. With three months remaining, the market’s dependence on rare provenance alignments, selective buyer participation at the very top, and typical seasonal pacing favors the current consensus unless an unexpected trophy consignment surfaces before year-end.