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icon for Will an artwork sell for $150 million by December 31?

Will an artwork sell for $150 million by December 31?

icon for Will an artwork sell for $150 million by December 31?

Will an artwork sell for $150 million by December 31?

40% tsansa
Polymarket
BAGO
40% tsansa
Polymarket
BAGO
This market will resolve to "Yes" if any single lot is sold at public auction for an all-in price (inclusive of buyer's premium) of at least $150 million at a major auction house between market creation and December 31, 2026. Otherwise, this market will resolve to "No". For the purposes of this market, a major auction house will be one of the following: Sotheby's. Christie's, or Phillips. If no such lot is reported by December 31, 2026, 11:59PM ET, this market will resolve to "No". This market will resolve according to the official post-sales results as published on each auction house's official website. If the resolution source becomes permanently unavailable or no qualifying report is released by December 31, 2026, 11:59PM ET, this market will resolve to "No".**Recent high-end results have been driven by exceptional single-owner collections rather than broad market momentum.** The $236 million Klimt in November 2025 and the $181 million Pollock from the S.I. Newhouse estate in May 2026 cleared the $150 million threshold, but those once-in-a-generation consignments have largely been dispersed. September 2026 evening sales at Sotheby’s and peers produced solid totals in the low hundreds of millions overall, yet individual lots remained well below the mark, with blue-chip works like Basquiat and Fontana selling in the mid-teens. Traders see limited pipeline depth for comparable masterpieces in the final months, as major estates are exhausted and economic caution keeps buyer participation selective at the extreme top. Historical patterns show $150 million-plus results depend on rare alignments of provenance and timing that have not materialized for the remainder of 2026.

This market will resolve to "Yes" if any single lot is sold at public auction for an all-in price (inclusive of buyer's premium) of at least $150 million at a major auction house between market creation and December 31, 2026. Otherwise, this market will resolve to "No".

For the purposes of this market, a major auction house will be one of the following: Sotheby's. Christie's, or Phillips. If no such lot is reported by December 31, 2026, 11:59PM ET, this market will resolve to "No".

This market will resolve according to the official post-sales results as published on each auction house's official website. If the resolution source becomes permanently unavailable or no qualifying report is released by December 31, 2026, 11:59PM ET, this market will resolve to "No".
This market will resolve to "Yes" if any single lot is sold at public auction for an all-in price (inclusive of buyer's premium) of at least $150 million at a major auction house between market creation and December 31, 2026. Otherwise, this market will resolve to "No". For the purposes of this market, a major auction house will be one of the following: Sotheby's. Christie's, or Phillips. If no such lot is reported by December 31, 2026, 11:59PM ET, this market will resolve to "No". This market will resolve according to the official post-sales results as published on each auction house's official website. If the resolution source becomes permanently unavailable or no qualifying report is released by December 31, 2026, 11:59PM ET, this market will resolve to "No".
Volume
$1,616
Petsa ng Pagtatapos
Jan 1, 2027
Binuksan ang Market
Jun 3, 2026, 4:18 PM ET
This market will resolve to "Yes" if any single lot is sold at public auction for an all-in price (inclusive of buyer's premium) of at least $150 million at a major auction house between market creation and December 31, 2026. Otherwise, this market will resolve to "No". For the purposes of this market, a major auction house will be one of the following: Sotheby's. Christie's, or Phillips. If no such lot is reported by December 31, 2026, 11:59PM ET, this market will resolve to "No". This market will resolve according to the official post-sales results as published on each auction house's official website. If the resolution source becomes permanently unavailable or no qualifying report is released by December 31, 2026, 11:59PM ET, this market will resolve to "No".**Recent high-end results have been driven by exceptional single-owner collections rather than broad market momentum.** The $236 million Klimt in November 2025 and the $181 million Pollock from the S.I. Newhouse estate in May 2026 cleared the $150 million threshold, but those once-in-a-generation consignments have largely been dispersed. September 2026 evening sales at Sotheby’s and peers produced solid totals in the low hundreds of millions overall, yet individual lots remained well below the mark, with blue-chip works like Basquiat and Fontana selling in the mid-teens. Traders see limited pipeline depth for comparable masterpieces in the final months, as major estates are exhausted and economic caution keeps buyer participation selective at the extreme top. Historical patterns show $150 million-plus results depend on rare alignments of provenance and timing that have not materialized for the remainder of 2026.

This market will resolve to "Yes" if any single lot is sold at public auction for an all-in price (inclusive of buyer's premium) of at least $150 million at a major auction house between market creation and December 31, 2026. Otherwise, this market will resolve to "No".

For the purposes of this market, a major auction house will be one of the following: Sotheby's. Christie's, or Phillips. If no such lot is reported by December 31, 2026, 11:59PM ET, this market will resolve to "No".

This market will resolve according to the official post-sales results as published on each auction house's official website. If the resolution source becomes permanently unavailable or no qualifying report is released by December 31, 2026, 11:59PM ET, this market will resolve to "No".
This market will resolve to "Yes" if any single lot is sold at public auction for an all-in price (inclusive of buyer's premium) of at least $150 million at a major auction house between market creation and December 31, 2026. Otherwise, this market will resolve to "No". For the purposes of this market, a major auction house will be one of the following: Sotheby's. Christie's, or Phillips. If no such lot is reported by December 31, 2026, 11:59PM ET, this market will resolve to "No". This market will resolve according to the official post-sales results as published on each auction house's official website. If the resolution source becomes permanently unavailable or no qualifying report is released by December 31, 2026, 11:59PM ET, this market will resolve to "No".
Volume
$1,616
Petsa ng Pagtatapos
Jan 1, 2027
Binuksan ang Market
Jun 3, 2026, 4:18 PM ET

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Mga Madalas na Tanong

Ang "Will an artwork sell for $150 million by December 31?" ay isang prediction market sa Polymarket kung saan bumibili at nagbebenta ang mga trader ng "Yes" o "No" shares batay sa kung naniniwala silang mangyayari ang event na ito. Ang kasalukuyang crowd-sourced probability ay 28% para sa "Yes." Halimbawa, kung ang "Yes" ay naka-presyo sa 28¢, ang market ay kolektibong nagtatakda ng 28% na tsansa na mangyayari ang event na ito. Patuloy na nagbabago ang mga odds na ito habang tumutugon ang mga trader sa mga bagong development at impormasyon. Ang mga shares sa tamang outcome ay mare-redeem sa $1 bawat isa sa market resolution.

Ang "Will an artwork sell for $150 million by December 31?" ay isang bagong likhang market sa Polymarket, inilunsad noong Jun 3, 2026. Bilang isang maagang market, ito ang iyong pagkakataon na maging kabilang sa mga unang trader na magtakda ng odds at mag-establish ng mga paunang price signal ng market. Maaari mo ring i-bookmark ang pahinang ito para subaybayan ang volume at trading activity habang lumalaki ang market sa paglipas ng panahon.

Para mag-trade sa "Will an artwork sell for $150 million by December 31?," piliin lang kung naniniwala ka na ang sagot ay "Yes" o "No." Ang bawat panig ay may kasalukuyang presyo na sumasalamin sa implied probability ng market. Ilagay ang iyong halaga at i-click ang "Trade." Kung bibili ka ng "Yes" shares at na-resolve ang outcome bilang "Yes," nagbabayad ang bawat share ng $1. Kung na-resolve bilang "No," ang iyong "Yes" shares ay nagkakahalaga ng $0. Maaari ka ring magbenta ng iyong shares anumang oras bago ang resolution kung gusto mong i-lock in ang kita o bawasan ang pagkalugi.

Ang kasalukuyang probability para sa "Will an artwork sell for $150 million by December 31?" ay 28% para sa "Yes." Ibig sabihin nito na kasalukuyang naniniwala ang Polymarket crowd na may 28% tsansa na mangyayari ang event na ito. Nag-a-update ang mga odds na ito sa real-time batay sa actual trades, na nagbibigay ng patuloy na ina-update na signal kung ano ang inaasahan ng market na mangyayari.

Ang mga resolution rules para sa "Will an artwork sell for $150 million by December 31?" ay tiyak na nagde-define kung ano ang kailangang mangyari para sa bawat outcome na maideklara bilang panalo — kasama ang mga opisyal na data source na ginagamit para matukoy ang resulta. Maaari mong i-review ang kumpletong resolution criteria sa "Rules" section sa pahinang ito sa itaas ng mga komento. Inirerekomenda namin na basahin nang mabuti ang mga patakaran bago mag-trade, dahil tinutukoy nila ang mga tiyak na kondisyon, edge cases, at mga source na namamahala kung paano nise-settle ang market na ito.