President Javier Milei’s administration has prioritized fiscal surpluses, reserve accumulation, and a managed crawling exchange-rate band introduced in January 2026 over immediate dollarization. This framework replaced earlier controls, aiming to reduce inflation gradually while securing IMF support and a bilateral currency swap line. Traders assign very low probabilities to dollarization by December 31, 2026, reflecting the lack of enabling legislation, insufficient foreign reserves for full peso conversion, and Milei’s shift toward pragmatic monetary stabilization. Key variables include ongoing IMF program reviews, reserve targets, congressional dynamics after the 2025 midterms, and any legislative proposals on monetary reform through year-end.