Second Sexual Misconduct Allegation Against Platner Published by Washington Post

July 8 drops to 41%5%

A second ex-girlfriend accused Platner of repeatedly removing protection without her consent during sex, compounding the pressure on him to withdraw before the July 13 ballot deadline.

Platner Remains in Race Past Key Deadlines, Solidifying General Election Bid

July 7 plunges to 15%30%

As the July deadlines for candidate withdrawal approached, Platner maintained his campaign, causing the market to resolve heavily toward him staying in the race until November 2, with the 'November 2' option surging to 98% and shorter-term dropout options collapsing.

Troy Jackson explores replacing Graham Platner if he withdraws

Political figures began exploring potential replacements for Platner, indicating serious consideration of a withdrawal scenario before the July 13 deadline.

July 7 Deadline Passes Without Graham Platner Withdrawing from Senate Race

July 7 plunges to 4%41%

As the July 7 deadline passed without any announcement of withdrawal from Graham Platner, the probability of him dropping out by this specific date collapsed from 45% to 4%, while the probability of him dropping out by the final November 2 deadline surged.

Bernie Sanders urges Graham Platner to withdraw from Senate race amid loss of key Democratic support

November 2 surges to 98%90%

Bernie Sanders publicly advised Platner to withdraw, citing a loss of key Democratic endorsements, which significantly damaged Platner's campaign viability and triggered a market surge.

Platner Remains in Race as Key July Replacement Deadlines Approach

July 7 plunges to 0%45%

As the critical July deadlines for replacing a candidate on the ballot neared, Platner showed no intention of withdrawing, causing the probability of an immediate drop-out by July 7 to collapse to 0% while the overall probability of him staying in past the summer solidified.

Graham Platner announces he is considering dropping out of Maine Senate race

July 6 plunges to 0%28%

Platner made a public statement indicating he was weighing his campaign options, signaling potential withdrawal and causing immediate market volatility.

Graham Platner Accused of Sexual Assault in Politico Report

November 2 surges to 96%62%

A woman who previously dated Graham Platner accused him of sexually assaulting her in 2021. The bombshell report triggered immediate calls for his withdrawal and caused the probability of him dropping out by November 2 to skyrocket.

Schumer and Gillibrand Call on Platner to Withdraw

July 31 dips to 94%2%

Senate Minority Leader Chuck Schumer and DSCC Chair Kirsten Gillibrand demanded Platner's immediate withdrawal and announced the DSCC would not invest in the Maine Senate race if he remains on the ballot.

Speculation grows about possible Platner withdrawal before July 13 deadline

July 7 plunges to 5%40%

Amid ongoing controversies and polling showing a tightening race, speculation increased about whether Platner might withdraw before the July 13 deadline allowing replacement, causing market volatility.

Senator John Fetterman Challenges Graham Platner Over Sexting Allegations

Democratic Senator John Fetterman publicly challenged Platner over his explicit texting scandal, highlighting ongoing national Democratic friction despite Platner's primary victory.

Platner holds rally denouncing allegations as politically motivated

Platner addressed supporters at a rally, denying allegations and framing them as politically motivated attacks, reinforcing his campaign's resilience and voter support.

Senate Democratic leaders express confidence in Platner following primary victory

November 2 rises to 13%4%

Following his primary win, national Democratic leaders, including Chuck Schumer, closed ranks around Platner, confirming their support for his general election campaign and stabilizing his market odds.

Graham Platner Wins Maine Democratic Senate Primary Decisively

November 2 plunges to 9%33%

Graham Platner secured a landslide victory in the Democratic primary with over 77% of the vote, officially cementing his status as the nominee to face Susan Collins. This major milestone drastically reduced the perceived likelihood of him dropping out of the race, causing the market price to drop from 42% to 9%.

Graham Platner Wins Maine Democratic Senate Primary in Landslide

July 6 drops to 0%9%

Platner secured a decisive victory in the Democratic primary, defeating suspended candidate Janet Mills and David Costello, cementing his position as the nominee to face Susan Collins.

Graham Platner Clinches Democratic Nomination for Maine Senate Race

November 2 plunges to 9%33%

Graham Platner officially won the Maine Democratic Senate primary, securing his spot as the nominee to challenge incumbent Republican Senator Susan Collins. This victory caused the probability of his withdrawal by November 2 to drop sharply from 42% to 9%.

Former Campaign Director Genevieve McDonald Urges Maine Voters to Reject Platner

November 2 plunges to 13%29%

Just hours before the primary, Platner's former campaign director published a highly critical op-ed in the Washington Post, warning that he lacked the character to serve in the Senate.

Former political director publishes column denouncing Graham Platner as unfit for office

On the eve of the primary, Platner's former political director Genevieve McDonald published a column in the Washington Post denouncing him, highlighting the ongoing pressure on his campaign.

Former Political Director Genevieve McDonald Publishes Blistering Op-Ed Urging Voters to Reject Graham Platner

November 2 plunges to 9%33%

On the eve of the primary, Platner's former political director published a highly critical op-ed in The Washington Post detailing his pattern of dishonest behavior, though it failed to derail his campaign.