**Governor Kathy Hochul’s firm opposition remains the central barrier to Mayor Zohran Mamdani’s proposed two-percentage-point city income-tax surcharge on New Yorkers earning over $1 million.** The measure requires explicit state legislative authorization and the governor’s signature before the city can implement it, and Albany has instead advanced a pied-à-terre tax on high-value second homes that Hochul supported and that passed earlier in 2026. With the FY2027 budget cycle already underway and no sign of a shift in the governor’s stance, traders assign the proposal only a 3.1% chance of enactment before the end of 2026. Realistic paths that could still move the market include a post-election change in Albany’s balance of power after the November 2026 contests, an unexpected reversal by Hochul, or a sudden budget crisis that forces compromise on revenue measures. Absent one of those developments, the structural requirement for statewide approval continues to anchor the near-certain “No” consensus.
Eksperimental na AI-generated summary na nire-reference ang Polymarket data. Hindi ito trading advice at wala itong papel sa kung paano nire-resolve ang market na ito. · Na-update3% tsansa
$65,285 Vol.
$65,285 Vol.
Dec 31, 2026
3% tsansa
$65,285 Vol.
$65,285 Vol.
Dec 31, 2026
Zohran Mamdani has proposed adding a flat 2% tax on New York City residents earning above $1,000,000 annually. You can read more about that here: https://drive.google.com/file/d/14-aM9DKG337SDMilmfQtLRR-pDwyWSTc/view
This market will resolve to “Yes” if both the following occur:
1. Zohran Mamdani wins the 2025 NYC Mayoral election.
2. A policy is enacted in New York City before December 31, 2026, 11:59 PM ET, which would establish a tax increase of 2% or more targeting individuals, households, or family units with an income of at least $1 million (USD or equivalent).
When the proposed tax goes into effect (e.g., if a qualifying tax is enacted for the 2028 fiscal year) will have no bearing on this market's resolution, so long as the policy has actually been enacted within this market's timeframe.
The policy will be considered to have been enacted if a local or state law is passed, or mayoral executive order is issued which will bring the stated tax into effect within the specified timeframe. The introduction, proposal, or announcement of such a policy without legal enactment will not qualify.
Policies which include limited exceptions—such as such as exceptions for specific families, asset classes, etc.—will still qualify as long as a general tax as described is enacted.
If Mamdani is confirmed to have lost the 2025 NYC Mayoral election by a consensus of credible reporting, or if the stated terms are not satisfied within this market's timeframe, this market will immediately resolve to “No”.
The resolution source for this market will be a consensus of credible reporting.**Governor Kathy Hochul’s firm opposition remains the central barrier to Mayor Zohran Mamdani’s proposed two-percentage-point city income-tax surcharge on New Yorkers earning over $1 million.** The measure requires explicit state legislative authorization and the governor’s signature before the city can implement it, and Albany has instead advanced a pied-à-terre tax on high-value second homes that Hochul supported and that passed earlier in 2026. With the FY2027 budget cycle already underway and no sign of a shift in the governor’s stance, traders assign the proposal only a 3.1% chance of enactment before the end of 2026.
Realistic paths that could still move the market include a post-election change in Albany’s balance of power after the November 2026 contests, an unexpected reversal by Hochul, or a sudden budget crisis that forces compromise on revenue measures. Absent one of those developments, the structural requirement for statewide approval continues to anchor the near-certain “No” consensus.
Zohran Mamdani has proposed adding a flat 2% tax on New York City residents earning above $1,000,000 annually. You can read more about that here: https://drive.google.com/file/d/14-aM9DKG337SDMilmfQtLRR-pDwyWSTc/view
This market will resolve to “Yes” if both the following occur:
1. Zohran Mamdani wins the 2025 NYC Mayoral election.
2. A policy is enacted in New York City before December 31, 2026, 11:59 PM ET, which would establish a tax increase of 2% or more targeting individuals, households, or family units with an income of at least $1 million (USD or equivalent).
When the proposed tax goes into effect (e.g., if a qualifying tax is enacted for the 2028 fiscal year) will have no bearing on this market's resolution, so long as the policy has actually been enacted within this market's timeframe.
The policy will be considered to have been enacted if a local or state law is passed, or mayoral executive order is issued which will bring the stated tax into effect within the specified timeframe. The introduction, proposal, or announcement of such a policy without legal enactment will not qualify.
Policies which include limited exceptions—such as such as exceptions for specific families, asset classes, etc.—will still qualify as long as a general tax as described is enacted.
If Mamdani is confirmed to have lost the 2025 NYC Mayoral election by a consensus of credible reporting, or if the stated terms are not satisfied within this market's timeframe, this market will immediately resolve to “No”.
The resolution source for this market will be a consensus of credible reporting.
This market will resolve to “Yes” if both the following occur:
1. Zohran Mamdani wins the 2025 NYC Mayoral election.
2. A policy is enacted in New York City before December 31, 2026, 11:59 PM ET, which would establish a tax increase of 2% or more targeting individuals, households, or family units with an income of at least $1 million (USD or equivalent).
When the proposed tax goes into effect (e.g., if a qualifying tax is enacted for the 2028 fiscal year) will have no bearing on this market's resolution, so long as the policy has actually been enacted within this market's timeframe.
The policy will be considered to have been enacted if a local or state law is passed, or mayoral executive order is issued which will bring the stated tax into effect within the specified timeframe. The introduction, proposal, or announcement of such a policy without legal enactment will not qualify.
Policies which include limited exceptions—such as such as exceptions for specific families, asset classes, etc.—will still qualify as long as a general tax as described is enacted.
If Mamdani is confirmed to have lost the 2025 NYC Mayoral election by a consensus of credible reporting, or if the stated terms are not satisfied within this market's timeframe, this market will immediately resolve to “No”.
The resolution source for this market will be a consensus of credible reporting.
Binuksan ang Market: Nov 5, 2025, 6:39 PM ET
Volume
$65,285Petsa ng Pagtatapos
Dec 31, 2026Binuksan ang Market
Nov 5, 2025, 6:39 PM ETResolver
0x65070BE91...Zohran Mamdani has proposed adding a flat 2% tax on New York City residents earning above $1,000,000 annually. You can read more about that here: https://drive.google.com/file/d/14-aM9DKG337SDMilmfQtLRR-pDwyWSTc/view
This market will resolve to “Yes” if both the following occur:
1. Zohran Mamdani wins the 2025 NYC Mayoral election.
2. A policy is enacted in New York City before December 31, 2026, 11:59 PM ET, which would establish a tax increase of 2% or more targeting individuals, households, or family units with an income of at least $1 million (USD or equivalent).
When the proposed tax goes into effect (e.g., if a qualifying tax is enacted for the 2028 fiscal year) will have no bearing on this market's resolution, so long as the policy has actually been enacted within this market's timeframe.
The policy will be considered to have been enacted if a local or state law is passed, or mayoral executive order is issued which will bring the stated tax into effect within the specified timeframe. The introduction, proposal, or announcement of such a policy without legal enactment will not qualify.
Policies which include limited exceptions—such as such as exceptions for specific families, asset classes, etc.—will still qualify as long as a general tax as described is enacted.
If Mamdani is confirmed to have lost the 2025 NYC Mayoral election by a consensus of credible reporting, or if the stated terms are not satisfied within this market's timeframe, this market will immediately resolve to “No”.
The resolution source for this market will be a consensus of credible reporting.**Governor Kathy Hochul’s firm opposition remains the central barrier to Mayor Zohran Mamdani’s proposed two-percentage-point city income-tax surcharge on New Yorkers earning over $1 million.** The measure requires explicit state legislative authorization and the governor’s signature before the city can implement it, and Albany has instead advanced a pied-à-terre tax on high-value second homes that Hochul supported and that passed earlier in 2026. With the FY2027 budget cycle already underway and no sign of a shift in the governor’s stance, traders assign the proposal only a 3.1% chance of enactment before the end of 2026.
Realistic paths that could still move the market include a post-election change in Albany’s balance of power after the November 2026 contests, an unexpected reversal by Hochul, or a sudden budget crisis that forces compromise on revenue measures. Absent one of those developments, the structural requirement for statewide approval continues to anchor the near-certain “No” consensus.
Zohran Mamdani has proposed adding a flat 2% tax on New York City residents earning above $1,000,000 annually. You can read more about that here: https://drive.google.com/file/d/14-aM9DKG337SDMilmfQtLRR-pDwyWSTc/view
This market will resolve to “Yes” if both the following occur:
1. Zohran Mamdani wins the 2025 NYC Mayoral election.
2. A policy is enacted in New York City before December 31, 2026, 11:59 PM ET, which would establish a tax increase of 2% or more targeting individuals, households, or family units with an income of at least $1 million (USD or equivalent).
When the proposed tax goes into effect (e.g., if a qualifying tax is enacted for the 2028 fiscal year) will have no bearing on this market's resolution, so long as the policy has actually been enacted within this market's timeframe.
The policy will be considered to have been enacted if a local or state law is passed, or mayoral executive order is issued which will bring the stated tax into effect within the specified timeframe. The introduction, proposal, or announcement of such a policy without legal enactment will not qualify.
Policies which include limited exceptions—such as such as exceptions for specific families, asset classes, etc.—will still qualify as long as a general tax as described is enacted.
If Mamdani is confirmed to have lost the 2025 NYC Mayoral election by a consensus of credible reporting, or if the stated terms are not satisfied within this market's timeframe, this market will immediately resolve to “No”.
The resolution source for this market will be a consensus of credible reporting.
This market will resolve to “Yes” if both the following occur:
1. Zohran Mamdani wins the 2025 NYC Mayoral election.
2. A policy is enacted in New York City before December 31, 2026, 11:59 PM ET, which would establish a tax increase of 2% or more targeting individuals, households, or family units with an income of at least $1 million (USD or equivalent).
When the proposed tax goes into effect (e.g., if a qualifying tax is enacted for the 2028 fiscal year) will have no bearing on this market's resolution, so long as the policy has actually been enacted within this market's timeframe.
The policy will be considered to have been enacted if a local or state law is passed, or mayoral executive order is issued which will bring the stated tax into effect within the specified timeframe. The introduction, proposal, or announcement of such a policy without legal enactment will not qualify.
Policies which include limited exceptions—such as such as exceptions for specific families, asset classes, etc.—will still qualify as long as a general tax as described is enacted.
If Mamdani is confirmed to have lost the 2025 NYC Mayoral election by a consensus of credible reporting, or if the stated terms are not satisfied within this market's timeframe, this market will immediately resolve to “No”.
The resolution source for this market will be a consensus of credible reporting.
Volume
$65,285Petsa ng Pagtatapos
Dec 31, 2026Binuksan ang Market
Nov 5, 2025, 6:39 PM ETResolver
0x65070BE91...**Governor Kathy Hochul’s firm opposition remains the central barrier to Mayor Zohran Mamdani’s proposed two-percentage-point city income-tax surcharge on New Yorkers earning over $1 million.** The measure requires explicit state legislative authorization and the governor’s signature before the city can implement it, and Albany has instead advanced a pied-à-terre tax on high-value second homes that Hochul supported and that passed earlier in 2026. With the FY2027 budget cycle already underway and no sign of a shift in the governor’s stance, traders assign the proposal only a 3.1% chance of enactment before the end of 2026. Realistic paths that could still move the market include a post-election change in Albany’s balance of power after the November 2026 contests, an unexpected reversal by Hochul, or a sudden budget crisis that forces compromise on revenue measures. Absent one of those developments, the structural requirement for statewide approval continues to anchor the near-certain “No” consensus.
Eksperimental na AI-generated summary na nire-reference ang Polymarket data. Hindi ito trading advice at wala itong papel sa kung paano nire-resolve ang market na ito. · Na-update
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