Zohran Mamdani, the New York City mayor and naturalized U.S. citizen since 2018, faces no active Department of Justice denaturalization proceedings as of mid-2026 despite congressional letters from Rep. Andy Ogles urging investigation into alleged omissions on his citizenship application. Traders assign a 99.1 percent probability to “No” because successful revocation demands a rare civil lawsuit proving willful material misrepresentation in naturalization, a high evidentiary threshold upheld by Supreme Court precedent and pursued in fewer than 100 cases annually nationwide. No federal filings, indictments, or formal probes have advanced in the months since the initial October 2025 requests, leaving insufficient time for litigation and a final court ruling before the December 31, 2026 market deadline. Late-emerging primary-source evidence triggering expedited DOJ action remains the only plausible pathway that could alter the current trader consensus.