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Teknolohiya·Gpt

Will OpenAI release a new frontier model by...?

icon for Will OpenAI release a new frontier model by...?
Teknolohiya·Gpt

Will OpenAI release a new frontier model by...?

$10,243 Vol.

May 31, 2026
Polymarket

$10,243 Vol.

Polymarket

May 31

$2,156 Vol.

16%

June 30

$2,467 Vol.

73%

September 30

$5,620 Vol.

94%

This market will resolve to “Yes” if OpenAI makes a new frontier model available to the general public by the specified date (ET). Otherwise, this market will resolve to “No”. For this market to resolve to “Yes”, OpenAI’s new frontier model must be launched and publicly accessible, including via open beta or open rolling waitlist signups. A closed beta or any form of private access will not suffice. The release must be clearly defined and publicly announced by OpenAI as being accessible to the general public. A frontier model refers to a newly released OpenAI model that OpenAI describes as one of its most capable or next-generation, general-purpose flagship models. Qualifying new frontier models include successors to existing frontier models, such as GPT 5.2, which could succeed GPT 5.1 in the same way that GPT 5.1 succeeded GPT 5. Models focused on a specific task such as image generation or which are versions of a previous model optimized for a specific task (i.e. GPT 5.1-codex) or for cost-efficiency (i.e. GPT-5 mini) will not count. Qualifying frontier models which are separate from the OpenAI GPT series will count. A qualifying new model from OpenAI’s o-series (i.e. o1, o3) will count. The primary resolution source for this market will be official information from OpenAI, with additional verification from a consensus of credible reporting.OpenAI's April 2026 launch of GPT-5.5, its latest frontier large language model, has solidified trader consensus on the company's rapid iteration cadence, with the model delivering superior reasoning, coding, and factuality that doubled Codex revenue in days and boosted API growth over 2x faster than priors. Subsequent rollouts like GPT-5.5 Instant for concise personalization and GPT-Rosalind for drug discovery further enhanced capabilities without a full new frontier release. Competitive pressures from Anthropic's Claude updates and Google's Gemini 3.1 intensify focus on OpenAI's next model, teased by CEO Sam Altman for gains in speed, intelligence tradeoffs, and agentic tools. Key catalysts include potential pre-summer announcements or infrastructure milestones like Multipath Reliable Connection deployments.

This market will resolve to “Yes” if OpenAI makes a new frontier model available to the general public by the specified date (ET). Otherwise, this market will resolve to “No”.

For this market to resolve to “Yes”, OpenAI’s new frontier model must be launched and publicly accessible, including via open beta or open rolling waitlist signups. A closed beta or any form of private access will not suffice. The release must be clearly defined and publicly announced by OpenAI as being accessible to the general public.

A frontier model refers to a newly released OpenAI model that OpenAI describes as one of its most capable or next-generation, general-purpose flagship models.

Qualifying new frontier models include successors to existing frontier models, such as GPT 5.2, which could succeed GPT 5.1 in the same way that GPT 5.1 succeeded GPT 5. Models focused on a specific task such as image generation or which are versions of a previous model optimized for a specific task (i.e. GPT 5.1-codex) or for cost-efficiency (i.e. GPT-5 mini) will not count.

Qualifying frontier models which are separate from the OpenAI GPT series will count. A qualifying new model from OpenAI’s o-series (i.e. o1, o3) will count.

The primary resolution source for this market will be official information from OpenAI, with additional verification from a consensus of credible reporting.
Volume
$10,243
Petsa ng Pagtatapos
Sep 30, 2026
Binuksan ang Market
May 3, 2026, 10:42 AM ET

Resolver

0x65070BE91...
This market will resolve to “Yes” if OpenAI makes a new frontier model available to the general public by the specified date (ET). Otherwise, this market will resolve to “No”. For this market to resolve to “Yes”, OpenAI’s new frontier model must be launched and publicly accessible, including via open beta or open rolling waitlist signups. A closed beta or any form of private access will not suffice. The release must be clearly defined and publicly announced by OpenAI as being accessible to the general public. A frontier model refers to a newly released OpenAI model that OpenAI describes as one of its most capable or next-generation, general-purpose flagship models. Qualifying new frontier models include successors to existing frontier models, such as GPT 5.2, which could succeed GPT 5.1 in the same way that GPT 5.1 succeeded GPT 5. Models focused on a specific task such as image generation or which are versions of a previous model optimized for a specific task (i.e. GPT 5.1-codex) or for cost-efficiency (i.e. GPT-5 mini) will not count. Qualifying frontier models which are separate from the OpenAI GPT series will count. A qualifying new model from OpenAI’s o-series (i.e. o1, o3) will count. The primary resolution source for this market will be official information from OpenAI, with additional verification from a consensus of credible reporting.
This market will resolve to “Yes” if OpenAI makes a new frontier model available to the general public by the specified date (ET). Otherwise, this market will resolve to “No”. For this market to resolve to “Yes”, OpenAI’s new frontier model must be launched and publicly accessible, including via open beta or open rolling waitlist signups. A closed beta or any form of private access will not suffice. The release must be clearly defined and publicly announced by OpenAI as being accessible to the general public. A frontier model refers to a newly released OpenAI model that OpenAI describes as one of its most capable or next-generation, general-purpose flagship models. Qualifying new frontier models include successors to existing frontier models, such as GPT 5.2, which could succeed GPT 5.1 in the same way that GPT 5.1 succeeded GPT 5. Models focused on a specific task such as image generation or which are versions of a previous model optimized for a specific task (i.e. GPT 5.1-codex) or for cost-efficiency (i.e. GPT-5 mini) will not count. Qualifying frontier models which are separate from the OpenAI GPT series will count. A qualifying new model from OpenAI’s o-series (i.e. o1, o3) will count. The primary resolution source for this market will be official information from OpenAI, with additional verification from a consensus of credible reporting.OpenAI's April 2026 launch of GPT-5.5, its latest frontier large language model, has solidified trader consensus on the company's rapid iteration cadence, with the model delivering superior reasoning, coding, and factuality that doubled Codex revenue in days and boosted API growth over 2x faster than priors. Subsequent rollouts like GPT-5.5 Instant for concise personalization and GPT-Rosalind for drug discovery further enhanced capabilities without a full new frontier release. Competitive pressures from Anthropic's Claude updates and Google's Gemini 3.1 intensify focus on OpenAI's next model, teased by CEO Sam Altman for gains in speed, intelligence tradeoffs, and agentic tools. Key catalysts include potential pre-summer announcements or infrastructure milestones like Multipath Reliable Connection deployments.

This market will resolve to “Yes” if OpenAI makes a new frontier model available to the general public by the specified date (ET). Otherwise, this market will resolve to “No”.

For this market to resolve to “Yes”, OpenAI’s new frontier model must be launched and publicly accessible, including via open beta or open rolling waitlist signups. A closed beta or any form of private access will not suffice. The release must be clearly defined and publicly announced by OpenAI as being accessible to the general public.

A frontier model refers to a newly released OpenAI model that OpenAI describes as one of its most capable or next-generation, general-purpose flagship models.

Qualifying new frontier models include successors to existing frontier models, such as GPT 5.2, which could succeed GPT 5.1 in the same way that GPT 5.1 succeeded GPT 5. Models focused on a specific task such as image generation or which are versions of a previous model optimized for a specific task (i.e. GPT 5.1-codex) or for cost-efficiency (i.e. GPT-5 mini) will not count.

Qualifying frontier models which are separate from the OpenAI GPT series will count. A qualifying new model from OpenAI’s o-series (i.e. o1, o3) will count.

The primary resolution source for this market will be official information from OpenAI, with additional verification from a consensus of credible reporting.
Volume
$10,243
Petsa ng Pagtatapos
Sep 30, 2026
Binuksan ang Market
May 3, 2026, 10:42 AM ET

Resolver

0x65070BE91...
This market will resolve to “Yes” if OpenAI makes a new frontier model available to the general public by the specified date (ET). Otherwise, this market will resolve to “No”. For this market to resolve to “Yes”, OpenAI’s new frontier model must be launched and publicly accessible, including via open beta or open rolling waitlist signups. A closed beta or any form of private access will not suffice. The release must be clearly defined and publicly announced by OpenAI as being accessible to the general public. A frontier model refers to a newly released OpenAI model that OpenAI describes as one of its most capable or next-generation, general-purpose flagship models. Qualifying new frontier models include successors to existing frontier models, such as GPT 5.2, which could succeed GPT 5.1 in the same way that GPT 5.1 succeeded GPT 5. Models focused on a specific task such as image generation or which are versions of a previous model optimized for a specific task (i.e. GPT 5.1-codex) or for cost-efficiency (i.e. GPT-5 mini) will not count. Qualifying frontier models which are separate from the OpenAI GPT series will count. A qualifying new model from OpenAI’s o-series (i.e. o1, o3) will count. The primary resolution source for this market will be official information from OpenAI, with additional verification from a consensus of credible reporting.

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Mga Madalas na Tanong

Ang "Will OpenAI release a new frontier model by...?" ay isang prediction market sa Polymarket na may 3 posibleng outcomes kung saan bumibili at nagbebenta ang mga trader ng shares batay sa kanilang pinaniniwalaan na mangyayari. Ang kasalukuyang nangunguna ay "September 30" sa 94%, sinusundan ng "June 30" sa 73%. Ang mga presyo ay sumasalamin sa real-time crowd-sourced probabilities. Halimbawa, ang isang share na naka-presyo sa 94¢ ay nagpapahiwatig na kolektibong itinatakda ng market ang 94% na tsansa sa outcome na iyon. Patuloy na nagbabago ang mga odds na ito habang tumutugon ang mga trader sa mga bagong development at impormasyon. Ang mga shares sa tamang outcome ay mare-redeem sa $1 bawat isa sa market resolution.

Sa ngayon, ang "Will OpenAI release a new frontier model by...?" ay naka-generate ng $10.2K sa kabuuang trading volume mula nang ilunsad ang market noong May 1, 2026. Ang antas na ito ng trading activity ay sumasalamin sa malakas na engagement mula sa Polymarket community at tumutulong na matiyak na ang kasalukuyang odds ay sinusuportahan ng malawak na pool ng mga market participant. Maaari mong subaybayan ang live price movements at mag-trade sa anumang outcome nang direkta sa pahinang ito.

Para mag-trade sa "Will OpenAI release a new frontier model by...?," i-browse ang 3 available na outcomes na nakalista sa pahinang ito. Ang bawat outcome ay may kasalukuyang presyo na kumakatawan sa implied probability ng market. Para kumuha ng posisyon, piliin ang outcome na pinaniniwalaan mong pinaka-malamang, piliin ang "Yes" para mag-trade pabor dito o "No" para mag-trade laban dito, ilagay ang iyong halaga, at i-click ang "Trade." Kung tama ang iyong napiling outcome kapag na-resolve ang market, nagbabayad ang iyong "Yes" shares ng $1 bawat isa. Kung mali, nagbabayad ang mga ito ng $0. Maaari ka ring magbenta ng iyong shares anumang oras bago ang resolution kung gusto mong i-lock in ang kita o bawasan ang pagkalugi.

Ang kasalukuyang frontrunner para sa "Will OpenAI release a new frontier model by...?" ay "September 30" sa 94%, ibig sabihin itinatakda ng market ang 94% na tsansa sa outcome na iyon. Ang sumunod na pinaka-malapit na outcome ay "June 30" sa 73%. Nag-a-update ang mga odds na ito sa real-time habang bumibili at nagbebenta ang mga trader ng shares, kaya sinasalamin nila ang pinakabagong kolektibong view kung ano ang pinaka-malamang na mangyari. Bumalik nang madalas o i-bookmark ang pahinang ito para sundan kung paano nagbabago ang odds habang lumilitaw ang bagong impormasyon.

Ang mga resolution rules para sa "Will OpenAI release a new frontier model by...?" ay tiyak na nagde-define kung ano ang kailangang mangyari para sa bawat outcome na maideklara bilang panalo — kasama ang mga opisyal na data source na ginagamit para matukoy ang resulta. Maaari mong i-review ang kumpletong resolution criteria sa "Rules" section sa pahinang ito sa itaas ng mga komento. Inirerekomenda namin na basahin nang mabuti ang mga patakaran bago mag-trade, dahil tinutukoy nila ang mga tiyak na kondisyon, edge cases, at mga source na namamahala kung paano nise-settle ang market na ito.