Trader consensus heavily favors "None in 2026" at 81% implied probability because leading large language models remain clustered just below the 1550 Elo threshold on the LMSYS Chatbot Arena leaderboard. As of mid-August 2026, Anthropic’s Claude Opus 5 and Fable 5 sit at 1510–1511 after June releases that delivered strong gains in reasoning and agentic tasks, while OpenAI’s GPT-5.6 Sol and xAI’s Grok-4.6 trail at 1507–1509. No model has crossed 1550 despite rapid iteration, and the limited calendar time left makes a late-year surge improbable. Anthropic’s modest 12% edge reflects its current leaderboard lead and consistent benchmark improvements, whereas lower odds for Google, OpenAI, and others capture slower recent momentum and the high bar for further capability jumps in the remaining months.
Eksperimental na AI-generated summary na nire-reference ang Polymarket data. Hindi ito trading advice at wala itong papel sa kung paano nire-resolve ang market na ito. · Na-updateWhich company's AI will first hit 1550 on Chatbot Arena in 2026?
None in 2026 81%
Anthropic 12%
Google 7.1%
OpenAI 2.5%
$114,213 Vol.
$114,213 Vol.

None in 2026
81%

Anthropic
12%

7%

OpenAI
2%

xAI
1%

Z.ai
1%

Alibaba
1%

DeepSeek
1%

Mistral
<1%
None in 2026 81%
Anthropic 12%
Google 7.1%
OpenAI 2.5%
$114,213 Vol.
$114,213 Vol.

None in 2026
81%

Anthropic
12%

7%

OpenAI
2%

xAI
1%

Z.ai
1%

Alibaba
1%

DeepSeek
1%

Mistral
<1%
Results from the "Text Arena" section on the leaderboard/text tab of https://lmarena.ai/ with the style control unchecked (https://arena.ai/leaderboard/text/overall-no-style-control) will be used to resolve this market.
If no company's model reaches 1550+ Arena Score by the specified time, this market will resolve to "None in 2026".
If the first model to reach a 1550+ Arena Score belongs to any company other than the listed ones, this market will be resolved to "Other".
The resolution source for this market is the Chatbot Arena LLM Leaderboard found at https://lmarena.ai/. If this resolution source becomes unavailable, the market will remain open until it is accessible again. If it becomes permanently unavailable, resolution will be based on another credible source.
Binuksan ang Market: Feb 13, 2026, 4:42 PM ET
Resolver
0x2F5e3684c...Results from the "Text Arena" section on the leaderboard/text tab of https://lmarena.ai/ with the style control unchecked (https://arena.ai/leaderboard/text/overall-no-style-control) will be used to resolve this market.
If no company's model reaches 1550+ Arena Score by the specified time, this market will resolve to "None in 2026".
If the first model to reach a 1550+ Arena Score belongs to any company other than the listed ones, this market will be resolved to "Other".
The resolution source for this market is the Chatbot Arena LLM Leaderboard found at https://lmarena.ai/. If this resolution source becomes unavailable, the market will remain open until it is accessible again. If it becomes permanently unavailable, resolution will be based on another credible source.
Resolver
0x2F5e3684c...Trader consensus heavily favors "None in 2026" at 81% implied probability because leading large language models remain clustered just below the 1550 Elo threshold on the LMSYS Chatbot Arena leaderboard. As of mid-August 2026, Anthropic’s Claude Opus 5 and Fable 5 sit at 1510–1511 after June releases that delivered strong gains in reasoning and agentic tasks, while OpenAI’s GPT-5.6 Sol and xAI’s Grok-4.6 trail at 1507–1509. No model has crossed 1550 despite rapid iteration, and the limited calendar time left makes a late-year surge improbable. Anthropic’s modest 12% edge reflects its current leaderboard lead and consistent benchmark improvements, whereas lower odds for Google, OpenAI, and others capture slower recent momentum and the high bar for further capability jumps in the remaining months.
Eksperimental na AI-generated summary na nire-reference ang Polymarket data. Hindi ito trading advice at wala itong papel sa kung paano nire-resolve ang market na ito. · Na-update



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