Traders assign an 81% implied probability to no company reaching 1550 Elo on the LMSYS Chatbot Arena by year-end 2026 because current frontier models from Anthropic, OpenAI, and xAI cluster tightly between roughly 1507 and 1511, reflecting incremental gains rather than the steep capability jumps needed to clear that threshold. Anthropic holds the clearest edge among single-company outcomes at 12.5% due to its repeated leaderboard leadership with Claude Opus 5 and Fable 5 variants, which top coding and overall arenas through strong agentic and reasoning performance. Google, OpenAI, and xAI trail with lower odds amid comparable but slightly behind releases, while smaller labs remain distant. The market reflects trader recognition that 2026 release cycles and scaling trends are unlikely to produce the required 40-plus point leap before December.
Eksperimental na AI-generated summary na nire-reference ang Polymarket data. Hindi ito trading advice at wala itong papel sa kung paano nire-resolve ang market na ito. · Na-updateWhich company's AI will first hit 1550 on Chatbot Arena in 2026?
None in 2026 81%
Anthropic 13%
Google 6.8%
OpenAI 2.1%
$114,213 Vol.
$114,213 Vol.

None in 2026
81%

Anthropic
13%

7%

OpenAI
2%

xAI
1%

Z.ai
1%

Alibaba
1%

DeepSeek
1%

Mistral
<1%
None in 2026 81%
Anthropic 13%
Google 6.8%
OpenAI 2.1%
$114,213 Vol.
$114,213 Vol.

None in 2026
81%

Anthropic
13%

7%

OpenAI
2%

xAI
1%

Z.ai
1%

Alibaba
1%

DeepSeek
1%

Mistral
<1%
Results from the "Text Arena" section on the leaderboard/text tab of https://lmarena.ai/ with the style control unchecked (https://arena.ai/leaderboard/text/overall-no-style-control) will be used to resolve this market.
If no company's model reaches 1550+ Arena Score by the specified time, this market will resolve to "None in 2026".
If the first model to reach a 1550+ Arena Score belongs to any company other than the listed ones, this market will be resolved to "Other".
The resolution source for this market is the Chatbot Arena LLM Leaderboard found at https://lmarena.ai/. If this resolution source becomes unavailable, the market will remain open until it is accessible again. If it becomes permanently unavailable, resolution will be based on another credible source.
Binuksan ang Market: Feb 13, 2026, 4:42 PM ET
Resolver
0x2F5e3684c...Results from the "Text Arena" section on the leaderboard/text tab of https://lmarena.ai/ with the style control unchecked (https://arena.ai/leaderboard/text/overall-no-style-control) will be used to resolve this market.
If no company's model reaches 1550+ Arena Score by the specified time, this market will resolve to "None in 2026".
If the first model to reach a 1550+ Arena Score belongs to any company other than the listed ones, this market will be resolved to "Other".
The resolution source for this market is the Chatbot Arena LLM Leaderboard found at https://lmarena.ai/. If this resolution source becomes unavailable, the market will remain open until it is accessible again. If it becomes permanently unavailable, resolution will be based on another credible source.
Resolver
0x2F5e3684c...Traders assign an 81% implied probability to no company reaching 1550 Elo on the LMSYS Chatbot Arena by year-end 2026 because current frontier models from Anthropic, OpenAI, and xAI cluster tightly between roughly 1507 and 1511, reflecting incremental gains rather than the steep capability jumps needed to clear that threshold. Anthropic holds the clearest edge among single-company outcomes at 12.5% due to its repeated leaderboard leadership with Claude Opus 5 and Fable 5 variants, which top coding and overall arenas through strong agentic and reasoning performance. Google, OpenAI, and xAI trail with lower odds amid comparable but slightly behind releases, while smaller labs remain distant. The market reflects trader recognition that 2026 release cycles and scaling trends are unlikely to produce the required 40-plus point leap before December.
Eksperimental na AI-generated summary na nire-reference ang Polymarket data. Hindi ito trading advice at wala itong papel sa kung paano nire-resolve ang market na ito. · Na-update



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