Pauline Hanson’s November 2025 Senate appearance in a burqa—her second such protest after the 2017 incident—triggered immediate condemnation, a formal censure, and a suspension barring her from Parliament through early 2026. The backlash from colleagues across parties, coupled with accusations of racism and disruption, reinforced her image as a fringe provocateur rather than a mainstream force, especially with the next federal election not due until 2028. No verified statements, petitions, or parliamentary maneuvers since the suspension indicate any intent to repeat the tactic this year, while One Nation’s focus has shifted to broader immigration and security messaging. Traders therefore assign an 82.5% probability to “No,” viewing a fresh stunt as politically counterproductive and unlikely absent a major new catalyst before year-end.