Reza Pahlavi has remained in exile since 1978 and has stated his intent to return to Iran as soon as conditions permit, even before any regime change, to join compatriots and potentially encourage defections. However, Iran's government has maintained control amid periodic protests and regional tensions through mid-2026, with no verified safe entry pathway or invitation emerging. Recent reporting highlights challenges in his opposition efforts, including limited on-the-ground momentum and mixed domestic support. Trader probabilities reflect these structural barriers, assigning low implied odds to entry by late 2026. Key variables include any escalation in internal unrest, shifts in security conditions, or diplomatic developments that could alter access risks before the resolution date.