Trader consensus overwhelmingly favors the Partido Popular (PP) at 99.4% implied probability to win the Andalusian Parliament election on May 17, driven by incumbent President Juanma Moreno's sustained dominance since his 2022 absolute majority victory—the first in the region's democratic history. Final polls released in the past week, including NC Report and Sigma Dos surveys, project PP securing 55-58 seats with 42-45% vote share, bolstered by Moreno's personal appeal drawing moderate PSOE voters amid the opposition's fragmentation into PSOE-A (projected 23-25%), VOX (13-14%), Por Andalucía, and smaller parties like PA. PSOE-A struggles under María Jesús Montero's leadership amid national headwinds. Realistic challenges include a late scandal targeting Moreno or unprecedented left turnout surge, though stable polling trends make upsets improbable.
Експериментальне резюме, згенероване ШІ з посиланням на дані Polymarket. Це не торгова порада і не впливає на вирішення цього ринку. · ОновленоPP 99.3%
PSOE-A <1%
VOX <1%
PA <1%
$93,195 Обс.
$93,195 Обс.
May 17, 2026
PP
99%
PSOE-A
1%
VOX
<1%
PA
<1%
AA
<1%
PP 99.3%
PSOE-A <1%
VOX <1%
PA <1%
$93,195 Обс.
$93,195 Обс.
May 17, 2026
PP
$28,750 Обс.
99%
PSOE-A
$30,253 Обс.
1%
VOX
$24,647 Обс.
<1%
PA
$5,119 Обс.
<1%
AA
$4,426 Обс.
<1%
Elections for the autonomous community of Andalusia’s unicameral parliament are scheduled for May 17, 2026.
This market will resolve according to the political party/coalition that wins the greatest number of seats in the Parliament of Andalusia as a result of this election.
If the results of this election are not definitively known by December 31, 2026, 11:59 PM ET, this market will resolve to “Other”.
This market's resolution will be based solely on the number of seats won by the listed party or coalition.
In the event of a tie between multiple parties for the most seats won, this market will resolve in favor of the party that received a greater number of valid votes. If that also results in a tie, this market will resolve in favor of the party whose listed abbreviation appears first in alphabetical order.
This market will resolve based on the result of the election as indicated by a consensus of credible reporting. In case of ambiguity, this market will resolve based solely on the official results as published by the Spanish Junta Electoral Central (JEC) (https://www.juntaelectoralcentral.es/cs/jec/inicio).
Note: If a listed coalition splits prior to this election and does not contest this election as a unified coalition, the corresponding market will represent the party formerly in that coalition that holds the greatest number of seats in the Parliament of Andalusia at the time of the split.Trader consensus overwhelmingly favors the Partido Popular (PP) at 99.4% implied probability to win the Andalusian Parliament election on May 17, driven by incumbent President Juanma Moreno's sustained dominance since his 2022 absolute majority victory—the first in the region's democratic history. Final polls released in the past week, including NC Report and Sigma Dos surveys, project PP securing 55-58 seats with 42-45% vote share, bolstered by Moreno's personal appeal drawing moderate PSOE voters amid the opposition's fragmentation into PSOE-A (projected 23-25%), VOX (13-14%), Por Andalucía, and smaller parties like PA. PSOE-A struggles under María Jesús Montero's leadership amid national headwinds. Realistic challenges include a late scandal targeting Moreno or unprecedented left turnout surge, though stable polling trends make upsets improbable.
Elections for the autonomous community of Andalusia’s unicameral parliament are scheduled for May 17, 2026.
This market will resolve according to the political party/coalition that wins the greatest number of seats in the Parliament of Andalusia as a result of this election.
If the results of this election are not definitively known by December 31, 2026, 11:59 PM ET, this market will resolve to “Other”.
This market's resolution will be based solely on the number of seats won by the listed party or coalition.
In the event of a tie between multiple parties for the most seats won, this market will resolve in favor of the party that received a greater number of valid votes. If that also results in a tie, this market will resolve in favor of the party whose listed abbreviation appears first in alphabetical order.
This market will resolve based on the result of the election as indicated by a consensus of credible reporting. In case of ambiguity, this market will resolve based solely on the official results as published by the Spanish Junta Electoral Central (JEC) (https://www.juntaelectoralcentral.es/cs/jec/inicio).
Note: If a listed coalition splits prior to this election and does not contest this election as a unified coalition, the corresponding market will represent the party formerly in that coalition that holds the greatest number of seats in the Parliament of Andalusia at the time of the split.
This market will resolve according to the political party/coalition that wins the greatest number of seats in the Parliament of Andalusia as a result of this election.
If the results of this election are not definitively known by December 31, 2026, 11:59 PM ET, this market will resolve to “Other”.
This market's resolution will be based solely on the number of seats won by the listed party or coalition.
In the event of a tie between multiple parties for the most seats won, this market will resolve in favor of the party that received a greater number of valid votes. If that also results in a tie, this market will resolve in favor of the party whose listed abbreviation appears first in alphabetical order.
This market will resolve based on the result of the election as indicated by a consensus of credible reporting. In case of ambiguity, this market will resolve based solely on the official results as published by the Spanish Junta Electoral Central (JEC) (https://www.juntaelectoralcentral.es/cs/jec/inicio).
Note: If a listed coalition splits prior to this election and does not contest this election as a unified coalition, the corresponding market will represent the party formerly in that coalition that holds the greatest number of seats in the Parliament of Andalusia at the time of the split.
Ринок відкрито: Apr 16, 2026, 7:37 PM ET
Обсяг
$93,195Дата завершення
May 17, 2026Ринок відкрито
Apr 16, 2026, 7:37 PM ETResolver
0x69c47De9D...Elections for the autonomous community of Andalusia’s unicameral parliament are scheduled for May 17, 2026.
This market will resolve according to the political party/coalition that wins the greatest number of seats in the Parliament of Andalusia as a result of this election.
If the results of this election are not definitively known by December 31, 2026, 11:59 PM ET, this market will resolve to “Other”.
This market's resolution will be based solely on the number of seats won by the listed party or coalition.
In the event of a tie between multiple parties for the most seats won, this market will resolve in favor of the party that received a greater number of valid votes. If that also results in a tie, this market will resolve in favor of the party whose listed abbreviation appears first in alphabetical order.
This market will resolve based on the result of the election as indicated by a consensus of credible reporting. In case of ambiguity, this market will resolve based solely on the official results as published by the Spanish Junta Electoral Central (JEC) (https://www.juntaelectoralcentral.es/cs/jec/inicio).
Note: If a listed coalition splits prior to this election and does not contest this election as a unified coalition, the corresponding market will represent the party formerly in that coalition that holds the greatest number of seats in the Parliament of Andalusia at the time of the split.Trader consensus overwhelmingly favors the Partido Popular (PP) at 99.4% implied probability to win the Andalusian Parliament election on May 17, driven by incumbent President Juanma Moreno's sustained dominance since his 2022 absolute majority victory—the first in the region's democratic history. Final polls released in the past week, including NC Report and Sigma Dos surveys, project PP securing 55-58 seats with 42-45% vote share, bolstered by Moreno's personal appeal drawing moderate PSOE voters amid the opposition's fragmentation into PSOE-A (projected 23-25%), VOX (13-14%), Por Andalucía, and smaller parties like PA. PSOE-A struggles under María Jesús Montero's leadership amid national headwinds. Realistic challenges include a late scandal targeting Moreno or unprecedented left turnout surge, though stable polling trends make upsets improbable.
Elections for the autonomous community of Andalusia’s unicameral parliament are scheduled for May 17, 2026.
This market will resolve according to the political party/coalition that wins the greatest number of seats in the Parliament of Andalusia as a result of this election.
If the results of this election are not definitively known by December 31, 2026, 11:59 PM ET, this market will resolve to “Other”.
This market's resolution will be based solely on the number of seats won by the listed party or coalition.
In the event of a tie between multiple parties for the most seats won, this market will resolve in favor of the party that received a greater number of valid votes. If that also results in a tie, this market will resolve in favor of the party whose listed abbreviation appears first in alphabetical order.
This market will resolve based on the result of the election as indicated by a consensus of credible reporting. In case of ambiguity, this market will resolve based solely on the official results as published by the Spanish Junta Electoral Central (JEC) (https://www.juntaelectoralcentral.es/cs/jec/inicio).
Note: If a listed coalition splits prior to this election and does not contest this election as a unified coalition, the corresponding market will represent the party formerly in that coalition that holds the greatest number of seats in the Parliament of Andalusia at the time of the split.
This market will resolve according to the political party/coalition that wins the greatest number of seats in the Parliament of Andalusia as a result of this election.
If the results of this election are not definitively known by December 31, 2026, 11:59 PM ET, this market will resolve to “Other”.
This market's resolution will be based solely on the number of seats won by the listed party or coalition.
In the event of a tie between multiple parties for the most seats won, this market will resolve in favor of the party that received a greater number of valid votes. If that also results in a tie, this market will resolve in favor of the party whose listed abbreviation appears first in alphabetical order.
This market will resolve based on the result of the election as indicated by a consensus of credible reporting. In case of ambiguity, this market will resolve based solely on the official results as published by the Spanish Junta Electoral Central (JEC) (https://www.juntaelectoralcentral.es/cs/jec/inicio).
Note: If a listed coalition splits prior to this election and does not contest this election as a unified coalition, the corresponding market will represent the party formerly in that coalition that holds the greatest number of seats in the Parliament of Andalusia at the time of the split.
Обсяг
$93,195Дата завершення
May 17, 2026Ринок відкрито
Apr 16, 2026, 7:37 PM ETResolver
0x69c47De9D...Trader consensus overwhelmingly favors the Partido Popular (PP) at 99.4% implied probability to win the Andalusian Parliament election on May 17, driven by incumbent President Juanma Moreno's sustained dominance since his 2022 absolute majority victory—the first in the region's democratic history. Final polls released in the past week, including NC Report and Sigma Dos surveys, project PP securing 55-58 seats with 42-45% vote share, bolstered by Moreno's personal appeal drawing moderate PSOE voters amid the opposition's fragmentation into PSOE-A (projected 23-25%), VOX (13-14%), Por Andalucía, and smaller parties like PA. PSOE-A struggles under María Jesús Montero's leadership amid national headwinds. Realistic challenges include a late scandal targeting Moreno or unprecedented left turnout surge, though stable polling trends make upsets improbable.
Експериментальне резюме, згенероване ШІ з посиланням на дані Polymarket. Це не торгова порада і не впливає на вирішення цього ринку. · Оновлено
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