Recent low inflation readings near 1.9 percent, well inside the Bank of Israel’s 1–3 percent target, combined with the July 25-basis-point cut to 3.5 percent have left traders split between no change and another reduction at the September meeting. Steady shekel strength, moderated risk premia after regional de-escalation, and staff forecasts projecting further gradual easing support the near-even odds, while fiscal pressures and any rebound in housing or energy prices could shift the balance. Upcoming CPI releases and geopolitical developments remain the primary catalysts that could tilt consensus toward a hold or an additional cut before year-end.