The closely matched market-implied odds of 46.5% for no change and 44.5% for a 25 basis point hike at the Bank of Korea’s November meeting reflect uncertainty over whether robust semiconductor-driven growth and persistent inflation warrant further tightening or a pause to assess lagged effects from the July and August rate increases that lifted the benchmark to 3.00%. Recent data show August CPI at 3.1% with core pressures elevated, while the BOK’s September Monetary Policy Report highlighted risks of demand-pull inflation and financial imbalances from accelerating Seoul housing prices and household loans. The recent Federal Reserve hike widened the policy rate differential, adding pressure on the won and capital flows. Traders appear focused on the October 22 and November 12 meetings as key catalysts, with the central bank’s dot plot and analyst forecasts split between a gradual path toward 3.25–3.50% and caution on consecutive moves.