Ella Langley’s “Choosin’ Texas” holds a near-certain grip on the Billboard Hot 100 summit for the chart week ending September 26 because the track has already logged 22 non-consecutive weeks at No. 1, matching Mariah Carey’s all-time record while topping streaming, sales, and radio metrics with roughly 24 million U.S. streams and strong airplay impressions in the latest tracking period. Its sustained crossover appeal from country radio to pop formats, combined with minimal new competition in the current frame, underpins the market’s 99.8% implied probability. An upset would require an unprecedented late-week surge from a track such as “Boston” or “Been By Now,” something that has not materialized in recent projections despite steady gains by other releases.