**Brazil's 2026 IPCA inflation market shows the strongest trader consensus around the 5.00-5.49% range at 57.6% implied probability, aligning closely with the Central Bank of Brazil's June projection of 5.2% and the government's July upward revision to 5.1%.** Recent July 2026 data eased headline inflation to 4.44% year-over-year—back inside the 1.5-4.5% target band—driven by slower food, transport, and fuel components amid retreating global oil prices. However, persistent supply-side pressures on fresh foods, a resilient labor market with strong real wage growth, and loose fiscal policy continue to anchor longer-term expectations above the 3% midpoint. Market Focus surveys and OECD outlooks cluster near 4.3-4.4%, while recent deteriorations in 2028 projections highlight risks of de-anchoring. Upcoming Copom decisions and monthly IPCA releases remain key swing factors for the annual outcome.
Експериментальне резюме, згенероване ШІ з посиланням на дані Polymarket. Це не торгова порада і не впливає на вирішення цього ринку. · Оновлено5.00-5.49% 57.5%
5.50-5.99% 23.6%
4.50-4.99% 17.2%
4.00-4.49% 1.9%
$93,767 Обс.
$93,767 Обс.
Jan 12, 2027
<3.00%
1%
3.00-3.49%
1%
3.50-3.99%
2%
4.00-4.49%
2%
4.50-4.99%
17%
5.00-5.49%
57%
5.50-5.99%
24%
6.00-6.49%
1%
6.50-6.99%
<1%
7.00%+
1%
5.00-5.49% 57.5%
5.50-5.99% 23.6%
4.50-4.99% 17.2%
4.00-4.49% 1.9%
$93,767 Обс.
$93,767 Обс.
Jan 12, 2027
<3.00%
$5,692 Обс.
1%
3.00-3.49%
$5,752 Обс.
1%
3.50-3.99%
$13,155 Обс.
2%
4.00-4.49%
$13,524 Обс.
2%
4.50-4.99%
$15,102 Обс.
17%
5.00-5.49%
$13,409 Обс.
57%
5.50-5.99%
$9,293 Обс.
24%
6.00-6.49%
$6,451 Обс.
1%
6.50-6.99%
$6,625 Обс.
<1%
7.00%+
$4,765 Обс.
1%
This is a market about the variation of consumer prices in Brazil over the 12-month period ending December 2026, as reported by the Brazilian Institute of Geography and Statistics (IBGE).
This market will resolve according to the percentage change in the Extended National Consumer Price Index (IPCA) during the 12-month period ending December 2026 according to the monthly IBGE report.
The resolution source for this market will be the IBGE Extended National Consumer Price Index monthly report released for December 2026, currently scheduled to be released on January 12, 2027. Resolution of this market will take place upon release of the aforementioned data. If no data for the specified month is released by the date the next month's data is scheduled to be released, this market will resolve based on data from the last available month.
You can find the relevant figure by locating the report for December 2026 on the Press Releases page (https://agenciadenoticias.ibge.gov.br/en/agencia-press-room.html), locating the Period-Rate table and finding the IPCA growth rate figure in the column labeled "Rate" and the Row labeled “Cumulative in the year / 12 Months”. Changes in the IBGE’s reporting format will not disqualify a published relevant figure from counting.
Note: the resolution source for this market will be the official monthly IBGE IPCA news release which reports inflation during 12-month periods to two decimal points (e.g. 4.26%). Thus, this is the level of precision that will be used when resolving the market. For the full release schedule, see: https://www.ibge.gov.br/en/calendar.html**Brazil's 2026 IPCA inflation market shows the strongest trader consensus around the 5.00-5.49% range at 57.6% implied probability, aligning closely with the Central Bank of Brazil's June projection of 5.2% and the government's July upward revision to 5.1%.** Recent July 2026 data eased headline inflation to 4.44% year-over-year—back inside the 1.5-4.5% target band—driven by slower food, transport, and fuel components amid retreating global oil prices. However, persistent supply-side pressures on fresh foods, a resilient labor market with strong real wage growth, and loose fiscal policy continue to anchor longer-term expectations above the 3% midpoint. Market Focus surveys and OECD outlooks cluster near 4.3-4.4%, while recent deteriorations in 2028 projections highlight risks of de-anchoring. Upcoming Copom decisions and monthly IPCA releases remain key swing factors for the annual outcome.
This is a market about the variation of consumer prices in Brazil over the 12-month period ending December 2026, as reported by the Brazilian Institute of Geography and Statistics (IBGE).
This market will resolve according to the percentage change in the Extended National Consumer Price Index (IPCA) during the 12-month period ending December 2026 according to the monthly IBGE report.
The resolution source for this market will be the IBGE Extended National Consumer Price Index monthly report released for December 2026, currently scheduled to be released on January 12, 2027. Resolution of this market will take place upon release of the aforementioned data. If no data for the specified month is released by the date the next month's data is scheduled to be released, this market will resolve based on data from the last available month.
You can find the relevant figure by locating the report for December 2026 on the Press Releases page (https://agenciadenoticias.ibge.gov.br/en/agencia-press-room.html), locating the Period-Rate table and finding the IPCA growth rate figure in the column labeled "Rate" and the Row labeled “Cumulative in the year / 12 Months”. Changes in the IBGE’s reporting format will not disqualify a published relevant figure from counting.
Note: the resolution source for this market will be the official monthly IBGE IPCA news release which reports inflation during 12-month periods to two decimal points (e.g. 4.26%). Thus, this is the level of precision that will be used when resolving the market. For the full release schedule, see: https://www.ibge.gov.br/en/calendar.html
This market will resolve according to the percentage change in the Extended National Consumer Price Index (IPCA) during the 12-month period ending December 2026 according to the monthly IBGE report.
The resolution source for this market will be the IBGE Extended National Consumer Price Index monthly report released for December 2026, currently scheduled to be released on January 12, 2027. Resolution of this market will take place upon release of the aforementioned data. If no data for the specified month is released by the date the next month's data is scheduled to be released, this market will resolve based on data from the last available month.
You can find the relevant figure by locating the report for December 2026 on the Press Releases page (https://agenciadenoticias.ibge.gov.br/en/agencia-press-room.html), locating the Period-Rate table and finding the IPCA growth rate figure in the column labeled "Rate" and the Row labeled “Cumulative in the year / 12 Months”. Changes in the IBGE’s reporting format will not disqualify a published relevant figure from counting.
Note: the resolution source for this market will be the official monthly IBGE IPCA news release which reports inflation during 12-month periods to two decimal points (e.g. 4.26%). Thus, this is the level of precision that will be used when resolving the market. For the full release schedule, see: https://www.ibge.gov.br/en/calendar.html
Ринок відкрито: Jan 23, 2026, 10:35 AM ET
Обсяг
$93,767Дата завершення
Jan 12, 2027Ринок відкрито
Jan 23, 2026, 10:35 AM ETResolver
0x2F5e3684c...This is a market about the variation of consumer prices in Brazil over the 12-month period ending December 2026, as reported by the Brazilian Institute of Geography and Statistics (IBGE).
This market will resolve according to the percentage change in the Extended National Consumer Price Index (IPCA) during the 12-month period ending December 2026 according to the monthly IBGE report.
The resolution source for this market will be the IBGE Extended National Consumer Price Index monthly report released for December 2026, currently scheduled to be released on January 12, 2027. Resolution of this market will take place upon release of the aforementioned data. If no data for the specified month is released by the date the next month's data is scheduled to be released, this market will resolve based on data from the last available month.
You can find the relevant figure by locating the report for December 2026 on the Press Releases page (https://agenciadenoticias.ibge.gov.br/en/agencia-press-room.html), locating the Period-Rate table and finding the IPCA growth rate figure in the column labeled "Rate" and the Row labeled “Cumulative in the year / 12 Months”. Changes in the IBGE’s reporting format will not disqualify a published relevant figure from counting.
Note: the resolution source for this market will be the official monthly IBGE IPCA news release which reports inflation during 12-month periods to two decimal points (e.g. 4.26%). Thus, this is the level of precision that will be used when resolving the market. For the full release schedule, see: https://www.ibge.gov.br/en/calendar.html**Brazil's 2026 IPCA inflation market shows the strongest trader consensus around the 5.00-5.49% range at 57.6% implied probability, aligning closely with the Central Bank of Brazil's June projection of 5.2% and the government's July upward revision to 5.1%.** Recent July 2026 data eased headline inflation to 4.44% year-over-year—back inside the 1.5-4.5% target band—driven by slower food, transport, and fuel components amid retreating global oil prices. However, persistent supply-side pressures on fresh foods, a resilient labor market with strong real wage growth, and loose fiscal policy continue to anchor longer-term expectations above the 3% midpoint. Market Focus surveys and OECD outlooks cluster near 4.3-4.4%, while recent deteriorations in 2028 projections highlight risks of de-anchoring. Upcoming Copom decisions and monthly IPCA releases remain key swing factors for the annual outcome.
This is a market about the variation of consumer prices in Brazil over the 12-month period ending December 2026, as reported by the Brazilian Institute of Geography and Statistics (IBGE).
This market will resolve according to the percentage change in the Extended National Consumer Price Index (IPCA) during the 12-month period ending December 2026 according to the monthly IBGE report.
The resolution source for this market will be the IBGE Extended National Consumer Price Index monthly report released for December 2026, currently scheduled to be released on January 12, 2027. Resolution of this market will take place upon release of the aforementioned data. If no data for the specified month is released by the date the next month's data is scheduled to be released, this market will resolve based on data from the last available month.
You can find the relevant figure by locating the report for December 2026 on the Press Releases page (https://agenciadenoticias.ibge.gov.br/en/agencia-press-room.html), locating the Period-Rate table and finding the IPCA growth rate figure in the column labeled "Rate" and the Row labeled “Cumulative in the year / 12 Months”. Changes in the IBGE’s reporting format will not disqualify a published relevant figure from counting.
Note: the resolution source for this market will be the official monthly IBGE IPCA news release which reports inflation during 12-month periods to two decimal points (e.g. 4.26%). Thus, this is the level of precision that will be used when resolving the market. For the full release schedule, see: https://www.ibge.gov.br/en/calendar.html
This market will resolve according to the percentage change in the Extended National Consumer Price Index (IPCA) during the 12-month period ending December 2026 according to the monthly IBGE report.
The resolution source for this market will be the IBGE Extended National Consumer Price Index monthly report released for December 2026, currently scheduled to be released on January 12, 2027. Resolution of this market will take place upon release of the aforementioned data. If no data for the specified month is released by the date the next month's data is scheduled to be released, this market will resolve based on data from the last available month.
You can find the relevant figure by locating the report for December 2026 on the Press Releases page (https://agenciadenoticias.ibge.gov.br/en/agencia-press-room.html), locating the Period-Rate table and finding the IPCA growth rate figure in the column labeled "Rate" and the Row labeled “Cumulative in the year / 12 Months”. Changes in the IBGE’s reporting format will not disqualify a published relevant figure from counting.
Note: the resolution source for this market will be the official monthly IBGE IPCA news release which reports inflation during 12-month periods to two decimal points (e.g. 4.26%). Thus, this is the level of precision that will be used when resolving the market. For the full release schedule, see: https://www.ibge.gov.br/en/calendar.html
Обсяг
$93,767Дата завершення
Jan 12, 2027Ринок відкрито
Jan 23, 2026, 10:35 AM ETResolver
0x2F5e3684c...**Brazil's 2026 IPCA inflation market shows the strongest trader consensus around the 5.00-5.49% range at 57.6% implied probability, aligning closely with the Central Bank of Brazil's June projection of 5.2% and the government's July upward revision to 5.1%.** Recent July 2026 data eased headline inflation to 4.44% year-over-year—back inside the 1.5-4.5% target band—driven by slower food, transport, and fuel components amid retreating global oil prices. However, persistent supply-side pressures on fresh foods, a resilient labor market with strong real wage growth, and loose fiscal policy continue to anchor longer-term expectations above the 3% midpoint. Market Focus surveys and OECD outlooks cluster near 4.3-4.4%, while recent deteriorations in 2028 projections highlight risks of de-anchoring. Upcoming Copom decisions and monthly IPCA releases remain key swing factors for the annual outcome.
Експериментальне резюме, згенероване ШІ з посиланням на дані Polymarket. Це не торгова порада і не впливає на вирішення цього ринку. · Оновлено
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