Recent Brazilian inflation data, with the IPCA rising to 4.39% year-over-year in April 2026 amid food and fuel pressures from Middle East supply disruptions, has anchored trader expectations for full-year 2026 outcomes near the 5% mark. Central bank Focus survey medians hover around 4.9%, though private forecasts from XP at 5.3% and Itaú at 5.2% reflect upside risks from resilient domestic demand and Selic easing to 14.50%. The closely matched probabilities across the 4.50–5.99% range underscore uncertainty over whether geopolitical factors and sticky services prices will push readings higher or allow moderation toward the 3% target by year-end. Key catalysts include upcoming IPCA releases and Copom decisions through June, which could shift the distribution if inflation surprises persistently above or below consensus.