Recent analyst surveys from Banxico show private forecasters trimming their 2026 headline inflation median to 3.87% from 3.90%, with core at 3.90%, reflecting modest economic growth upgrades to 1.4% and stable policy rates at 6.50%. Actual readings have hovered near 3.1-3.4% through August 2026, with core easing to 3.79% while non-core pressures persist. Market-implied odds favor the 4.00-4.49% bin at 45% amid upside risks from U.S. policy shifts, geopolitical tensions, and delayed convergence to Banxico’s 3% target until late 2027. Key near-term catalysts include the October CPI release and ongoing FOMC-Banxico divergence signals.