Ongoing military tensions and recent ship attacks in the Strait of Hormuz have sustained severe restrictions on commercial traffic since late February 2026, keeping volumes at roughly 3-5% of pre-crisis norms amid Iranian assertions of control, permit requirements, and navigation fees. Escalations including drone and missile strikes on vessels, U.S. responses, failed ceasefire negotiations, and unresolved issues such as mines and competing transit corridors have prevented any sustained return toward historical daily averages of 70-85 transits. High war-risk insurance premiums and sanctions uncertainties further limit operator participation. These factors underpin trader consensus on the low probability of normalization by year-end, though diplomatic progress or de-escalation could alter the trajectory.