Trader consensus heavily favors no US-Iran nuclear deal by May 31, with "No" at 92%, reflecting stalled indirect negotiations amid a fragile ceasefire in the ongoing 2026 conflict. Vice President JD Vance claimed progress on May 13 toward ending hostilities, but President Trump warned days earlier that the truce is on "life support" after Iran rejected key US demands for upfront nuclear concessions like enrichment curbs. Iran halted direct talks on May 4, citing distrust and insisting on comprehensive sanctions relief first, widening gaps with just two weeks left. Historical JCPOA revival failures and competing priorities, including Strait of Hormuz blockades, underscore significant barriers, though late diplomatic breakthroughs via Omani mediators remain possible.
Експериментальне резюме, згенероване ШІ з посиланням на дані Polymarket. Це не торгова порада і не впливає на вирішення цього ринку. · ОновленоUS-Iran nuclear deal by May 31?
US-Iran nuclear deal by May 31?
$584,254 Обс.
$584,254 Обс.
May 31, 2026
$584,254 Обс.
$584,254 Обс.
May 31, 2026
This market will resolve to "Yes" if an official agreement over Iranian nuclear research and/or nuclear weapon development, defined as a publicly announced mutual agreement, is reached between the United States and Iran by May 31, 2026, 11:59 PM ET. Otherwise, this market will resolve to “No”.
If such an agreement is officially reached before the resolution date, this market will resolve to "Yes", regardless of if/when the agreement goes into effect.
Agreements that include the United States and Iran as parties, even if they also involve other countries (e.g., a multilateral deal like the JCPOA), will qualify for resolution.
The primary resolution source for this market will be an official announcement by the United States and/or the Islamic Republic of Iran, however an overwhelming consensus of credible reporting confirming an agreement has been reached will also qualify.Trader consensus heavily favors no US-Iran nuclear deal by May 31, with "No" at 92%, reflecting stalled indirect negotiations amid a fragile ceasefire in the ongoing 2026 conflict. Vice President JD Vance claimed progress on May 13 toward ending hostilities, but President Trump warned days earlier that the truce is on "life support" after Iran rejected key US demands for upfront nuclear concessions like enrichment curbs. Iran halted direct talks on May 4, citing distrust and insisting on comprehensive sanctions relief first, widening gaps with just two weeks left. Historical JCPOA revival failures and competing priorities, including Strait of Hormuz blockades, underscore significant barriers, though late diplomatic breakthroughs via Omani mediators remain possible.
This market will resolve to "Yes" if an official agreement over Iranian nuclear research and/or nuclear weapon development, defined as a publicly announced mutual agreement, is reached between the United States and Iran by May 31, 2026, 11:59 PM ET. Otherwise, this market will resolve to “No”.
If such an agreement is officially reached before the resolution date, this market will resolve to "Yes", regardless of if/when the agreement goes into effect.
Agreements that include the United States and Iran as parties, even if they also involve other countries (e.g., a multilateral deal like the JCPOA), will qualify for resolution.
The primary resolution source for this market will be an official announcement by the United States and/or the Islamic Republic of Iran, however an overwhelming consensus of credible reporting confirming an agreement has been reached will also qualify.
If such an agreement is officially reached before the resolution date, this market will resolve to "Yes", regardless of if/when the agreement goes into effect.
Agreements that include the United States and Iran as parties, even if they also involve other countries (e.g., a multilateral deal like the JCPOA), will qualify for resolution.
The primary resolution source for this market will be an official announcement by the United States and/or the Islamic Republic of Iran, however an overwhelming consensus of credible reporting confirming an agreement has been reached will also qualify.
Ринок відкрито: Apr 28, 2026, 10:39 PM ET
Обсяг
$584,254Дата завершення
May 31, 2026Ринок відкрито
Apr 28, 2026, 10:39 PM ETResolver
0x65070BE91...This market will resolve to "Yes" if an official agreement over Iranian nuclear research and/or nuclear weapon development, defined as a publicly announced mutual agreement, is reached between the United States and Iran by May 31, 2026, 11:59 PM ET. Otherwise, this market will resolve to “No”.
If such an agreement is officially reached before the resolution date, this market will resolve to "Yes", regardless of if/when the agreement goes into effect.
Agreements that include the United States and Iran as parties, even if they also involve other countries (e.g., a multilateral deal like the JCPOA), will qualify for resolution.
The primary resolution source for this market will be an official announcement by the United States and/or the Islamic Republic of Iran, however an overwhelming consensus of credible reporting confirming an agreement has been reached will also qualify.Trader consensus heavily favors no US-Iran nuclear deal by May 31, with "No" at 92%, reflecting stalled indirect negotiations amid a fragile ceasefire in the ongoing 2026 conflict. Vice President JD Vance claimed progress on May 13 toward ending hostilities, but President Trump warned days earlier that the truce is on "life support" after Iran rejected key US demands for upfront nuclear concessions like enrichment curbs. Iran halted direct talks on May 4, citing distrust and insisting on comprehensive sanctions relief first, widening gaps with just two weeks left. Historical JCPOA revival failures and competing priorities, including Strait of Hormuz blockades, underscore significant barriers, though late diplomatic breakthroughs via Omani mediators remain possible.
This market will resolve to "Yes" if an official agreement over Iranian nuclear research and/or nuclear weapon development, defined as a publicly announced mutual agreement, is reached between the United States and Iran by May 31, 2026, 11:59 PM ET. Otherwise, this market will resolve to “No”.
If such an agreement is officially reached before the resolution date, this market will resolve to "Yes", regardless of if/when the agreement goes into effect.
Agreements that include the United States and Iran as parties, even if they also involve other countries (e.g., a multilateral deal like the JCPOA), will qualify for resolution.
The primary resolution source for this market will be an official announcement by the United States and/or the Islamic Republic of Iran, however an overwhelming consensus of credible reporting confirming an agreement has been reached will also qualify.
If such an agreement is officially reached before the resolution date, this market will resolve to "Yes", regardless of if/when the agreement goes into effect.
Agreements that include the United States and Iran as parties, even if they also involve other countries (e.g., a multilateral deal like the JCPOA), will qualify for resolution.
The primary resolution source for this market will be an official announcement by the United States and/or the Islamic Republic of Iran, however an overwhelming consensus of credible reporting confirming an agreement has been reached will also qualify.
Обсяг
$584,254Дата завершення
May 31, 2026Ринок відкрито
Apr 28, 2026, 10:39 PM ETResolver
0x65070BE91...Trader consensus heavily favors no US-Iran nuclear deal by May 31, with "No" at 92%, reflecting stalled indirect negotiations amid a fragile ceasefire in the ongoing 2026 conflict. Vice President JD Vance claimed progress on May 13 toward ending hostilities, but President Trump warned days earlier that the truce is on "life support" after Iran rejected key US demands for upfront nuclear concessions like enrichment curbs. Iran halted direct talks on May 4, citing distrust and insisting on comprehensive sanctions relief first, widening gaps with just two weeks left. Historical JCPOA revival failures and competing priorities, including Strait of Hormuz blockades, underscore significant barriers, though late diplomatic breakthroughs via Omani mediators remain possible.
Експериментальне резюме, згенероване ШІ з посиланням на дані Polymarket. Це не торгова порада і не впливає на вирішення цього ринку. · Оновлено
Обережно з зовнішніми посиланнями.
Обережно з зовнішніми посиланнями.
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