A fragile U.S.-mediated ceasefire between Israel and Lebanon, initiated on April 16, 2026, for an initial 10 days and extended through late May, has failed to halt daily exchanges of Israeli airstrikes in southern Lebanon—killing dozens—and Hezbollah drone attacks and rockets targeting Israeli border positions. Netanyahu has conditioned any durable security arrangement on Hezbollah's full disarmament north of the Litani River and maintenance of an IDF-reinforced zone, demands rejected by Hezbollah amid ongoing violations from both sides. Lebanon-Israel talks in Washington aim to extend the truce without resolving core border security disputes, while Hezbollah leaders tie de-escalation to broader U.S.-Iran diplomacy. Traders weigh slim prospects for a permanent peace deal against persistent military escalations and unresolved disarmament sticking points, with no breakthroughs in the past month.
Експериментальне резюме, згенероване ШІ з посиланням на дані Polymarket. Це не торгова порада і не впливає на вирішення цього ринку. · ОновленоIsrael x Hezbollah permanent peace deal by...?
Israel x Hezbollah permanent peace deal by...?
$161,991 Обс.
May 31, 2026
May 31
3%
$161,991 Обс.
May 31
$84,909 Обс.
3%
This market will resolve to “Yes” if Israel and Hezbollah agree to a permanent peace deal by the specified date, 11:59 PM ET. Otherwise, this market will resolve to “No”.
A permanent peace deal refers to any agreement which explicitly indicates that military hostilities between Israel and Hezbollah have ended or will permanently cease, or uses equivalent language clearly signaling a lasting end to military hostilities between Israel and Hezbollah. Agreements that are explicitly temporary or which do not include a definitive agreement to end military hostilities between Israel and Hezbollah on a lasting basis (e.g. a temporary extension of the 10-day ceasefire agreement announced on April 16, 2026), will not qualify.
A qualifying agreement will be considered to have been established if either of the following conditions are met:
- Israel and Hezbollah each sign or formally adopt a written agreement (e.g. a treaty or multi-point agreement) which meets the above criteria.
- Both Israel and Hezbollah provide clear public confirmation that a qualifying agreement has been definitively established. Negotiations, statements of progress, or other statements which do not constitute a definitive announcement that a qualifying agreement has been reached will not count.
The inclusion of Israel and Hezbollah in a qualifying peace deal between multiple parties will qualify.
The primary resolution source for this market will be official information from the government of Israel and Hezbollah; however, a consensus of credible reporting may also be used.A fragile U.S.-mediated ceasefire between Israel and Lebanon, initiated on April 16, 2026, for an initial 10 days and extended through late May, has failed to halt daily exchanges of Israeli airstrikes in southern Lebanon—killing dozens—and Hezbollah drone attacks and rockets targeting Israeli border positions. Netanyahu has conditioned any durable security arrangement on Hezbollah's full disarmament north of the Litani River and maintenance of an IDF-reinforced zone, demands rejected by Hezbollah amid ongoing violations from both sides. Lebanon-Israel talks in Washington aim to extend the truce without resolving core border security disputes, while Hezbollah leaders tie de-escalation to broader U.S.-Iran diplomacy. Traders weigh slim prospects for a permanent peace deal against persistent military escalations and unresolved disarmament sticking points, with no breakthroughs in the past month.
This market will resolve to “Yes” if Israel and Hezbollah agree to a permanent peace deal by the specified date, 11:59 PM ET. Otherwise, this market will resolve to “No”.
A permanent peace deal refers to any agreement which explicitly indicates that military hostilities between Israel and Hezbollah have ended or will permanently cease, or uses equivalent language clearly signaling a lasting end to military hostilities between Israel and Hezbollah. Agreements that are explicitly temporary or which do not include a definitive agreement to end military hostilities between Israel and Hezbollah on a lasting basis (e.g. a temporary extension of the 10-day ceasefire agreement announced on April 16, 2026), will not qualify.
A qualifying agreement will be considered to have been established if either of the following conditions are met:
- Israel and Hezbollah each sign or formally adopt a written agreement (e.g. a treaty or multi-point agreement) which meets the above criteria.
- Both Israel and Hezbollah provide clear public confirmation that a qualifying agreement has been definitively established. Negotiations, statements of progress, or other statements which do not constitute a definitive announcement that a qualifying agreement has been reached will not count.
The inclusion of Israel and Hezbollah in a qualifying peace deal between multiple parties will qualify.
The primary resolution source for this market will be official information from the government of Israel and Hezbollah; however, a consensus of credible reporting may also be used.
A permanent peace deal refers to any agreement which explicitly indicates that military hostilities between Israel and Hezbollah have ended or will permanently cease, or uses equivalent language clearly signaling a lasting end to military hostilities between Israel and Hezbollah. Agreements that are explicitly temporary or which do not include a definitive agreement to end military hostilities between Israel and Hezbollah on a lasting basis (e.g. a temporary extension of the 10-day ceasefire agreement announced on April 16, 2026), will not qualify.
A qualifying agreement will be considered to have been established if either of the following conditions are met:
- Israel and Hezbollah each sign or formally adopt a written agreement (e.g. a treaty or multi-point agreement) which meets the above criteria.
- Both Israel and Hezbollah provide clear public confirmation that a qualifying agreement has been definitively established. Negotiations, statements of progress, or other statements which do not constitute a definitive announcement that a qualifying agreement has been reached will not count.
The inclusion of Israel and Hezbollah in a qualifying peace deal between multiple parties will qualify.
The primary resolution source for this market will be official information from the government of Israel and Hezbollah; however, a consensus of credible reporting may also be used.
Ринок відкрито: Apr 16, 2026, 7:48 PM ET
Обсяг
$161,991Дата завершення
May 31, 2026Ринок відкрито
Apr 16, 2026, 7:48 PM ETResolver
0x65070BE91...This market will resolve to “Yes” if Israel and Hezbollah agree to a permanent peace deal by the specified date, 11:59 PM ET. Otherwise, this market will resolve to “No”.
A permanent peace deal refers to any agreement which explicitly indicates that military hostilities between Israel and Hezbollah have ended or will permanently cease, or uses equivalent language clearly signaling a lasting end to military hostilities between Israel and Hezbollah. Agreements that are explicitly temporary or which do not include a definitive agreement to end military hostilities between Israel and Hezbollah on a lasting basis (e.g. a temporary extension of the 10-day ceasefire agreement announced on April 16, 2026), will not qualify.
A qualifying agreement will be considered to have been established if either of the following conditions are met:
- Israel and Hezbollah each sign or formally adopt a written agreement (e.g. a treaty or multi-point agreement) which meets the above criteria.
- Both Israel and Hezbollah provide clear public confirmation that a qualifying agreement has been definitively established. Negotiations, statements of progress, or other statements which do not constitute a definitive announcement that a qualifying agreement has been reached will not count.
The inclusion of Israel and Hezbollah in a qualifying peace deal between multiple parties will qualify.
The primary resolution source for this market will be official information from the government of Israel and Hezbollah; however, a consensus of credible reporting may also be used.A fragile U.S.-mediated ceasefire between Israel and Lebanon, initiated on April 16, 2026, for an initial 10 days and extended through late May, has failed to halt daily exchanges of Israeli airstrikes in southern Lebanon—killing dozens—and Hezbollah drone attacks and rockets targeting Israeli border positions. Netanyahu has conditioned any durable security arrangement on Hezbollah's full disarmament north of the Litani River and maintenance of an IDF-reinforced zone, demands rejected by Hezbollah amid ongoing violations from both sides. Lebanon-Israel talks in Washington aim to extend the truce without resolving core border security disputes, while Hezbollah leaders tie de-escalation to broader U.S.-Iran diplomacy. Traders weigh slim prospects for a permanent peace deal against persistent military escalations and unresolved disarmament sticking points, with no breakthroughs in the past month.
This market will resolve to “Yes” if Israel and Hezbollah agree to a permanent peace deal by the specified date, 11:59 PM ET. Otherwise, this market will resolve to “No”.
A permanent peace deal refers to any agreement which explicitly indicates that military hostilities between Israel and Hezbollah have ended or will permanently cease, or uses equivalent language clearly signaling a lasting end to military hostilities between Israel and Hezbollah. Agreements that are explicitly temporary or which do not include a definitive agreement to end military hostilities between Israel and Hezbollah on a lasting basis (e.g. a temporary extension of the 10-day ceasefire agreement announced on April 16, 2026), will not qualify.
A qualifying agreement will be considered to have been established if either of the following conditions are met:
- Israel and Hezbollah each sign or formally adopt a written agreement (e.g. a treaty or multi-point agreement) which meets the above criteria.
- Both Israel and Hezbollah provide clear public confirmation that a qualifying agreement has been definitively established. Negotiations, statements of progress, or other statements which do not constitute a definitive announcement that a qualifying agreement has been reached will not count.
The inclusion of Israel and Hezbollah in a qualifying peace deal between multiple parties will qualify.
The primary resolution source for this market will be official information from the government of Israel and Hezbollah; however, a consensus of credible reporting may also be used.
A permanent peace deal refers to any agreement which explicitly indicates that military hostilities between Israel and Hezbollah have ended or will permanently cease, or uses equivalent language clearly signaling a lasting end to military hostilities between Israel and Hezbollah. Agreements that are explicitly temporary or which do not include a definitive agreement to end military hostilities between Israel and Hezbollah on a lasting basis (e.g. a temporary extension of the 10-day ceasefire agreement announced on April 16, 2026), will not qualify.
A qualifying agreement will be considered to have been established if either of the following conditions are met:
- Israel and Hezbollah each sign or formally adopt a written agreement (e.g. a treaty or multi-point agreement) which meets the above criteria.
- Both Israel and Hezbollah provide clear public confirmation that a qualifying agreement has been definitively established. Negotiations, statements of progress, or other statements which do not constitute a definitive announcement that a qualifying agreement has been reached will not count.
The inclusion of Israel and Hezbollah in a qualifying peace deal between multiple parties will qualify.
The primary resolution source for this market will be official information from the government of Israel and Hezbollah; however, a consensus of credible reporting may also be used.
Обсяг
$161,991Дата завершення
May 31, 2026Ринок відкрито
Apr 16, 2026, 7:48 PM ETResolver
0x65070BE91...A fragile U.S.-mediated ceasefire between Israel and Lebanon, initiated on April 16, 2026, for an initial 10 days and extended through late May, has failed to halt daily exchanges of Israeli airstrikes in southern Lebanon—killing dozens—and Hezbollah drone attacks and rockets targeting Israeli border positions. Netanyahu has conditioned any durable security arrangement on Hezbollah's full disarmament north of the Litani River and maintenance of an IDF-reinforced zone, demands rejected by Hezbollah amid ongoing violations from both sides. Lebanon-Israel talks in Washington aim to extend the truce without resolving core border security disputes, while Hezbollah leaders tie de-escalation to broader U.S.-Iran diplomacy. Traders weigh slim prospects for a permanent peace deal against persistent military escalations and unresolved disarmament sticking points, with no breakthroughs in the past month.
Експериментальне резюме, згенероване ШІ з посиланням на дані Polymarket. Це не торгова порада і не впливає на вирішення цього ринку. · Оновлено
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