**Recent developments show stalled progress toward a finalized U.S.-Iran agreement that could reach the UN Security Council.** The June 2026 Islamabad Memorandum of Understanding outlined a 60-day (extendable) window for negotiating a comprehensive deal on sanctions relief, nuclear issues, and related matters, with paragraph 14 specifying that any final agreement would be endorsed by a binding UNSC resolution. That initial window closed in August without a completed pact. As of mid-November 2026, bilateral talks remain at an exploratory or technical stage with no breakthrough announced. U.S. officials have described momentum as positive in some statements but have explicitly stated that a breakthrough is not imminent. Iran has protested recent U.S. actions, including a reward offer tied to its nuclear program, while UNSC discussions have centered on ongoing regional tensions rather than any draft endorsement of a bilateral deal. Partial sanctions measures have been implemented under the MOU framework, yet core elements required for a full agreement—such as verifiable nuclear limits and broader sanctions termination—remain unresolved. With roughly six weeks remaining until December 31, the absence of a finalized text that could be presented for UNSC action underpins the 94.2% implied probability on “No.” Any shift would require rapid convergence on outstanding issues followed by swift Security Council consideration, an outcome current diplomatic signals do not support.