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Геополітика·Китай

Will China invade Taiwan by June 30, 2027?

icon for Will China invade Taiwan by June 30, 2027?
Геополітика·Китай

Will China invade Taiwan by June 30, 2027?

Jun 30

Sep 30

Dec 31

Jun 30, 2027

Jun 30

Sep 30

Dec 31

Jun 30, 2027

15% шанс
Polymarket

$183,015 Обс.

15% шанс
Polymarket

$183,015 Обс.

This market will resolve to "Yes" if China commences a military offensive intended to establish control over any portion of the Republic of China (Taiwan) by June 30, 2027, 11:59 PM ET. Otherwise, this market will resolve to "No". Territory under the administration of the Republic of China, including any inhabited islands, will qualify; however, uninhabited islands will not qualify. The resolution source for this market will be official confirmation by China, Taiwan, the United Nations, or any permanent member of the UN Security Council; however, a consensus of credible reporting will also be used.Trader consensus prices "No" at 85.5% for a Chinese invasion of Taiwan by June 30, 2027, reflecting the absence of verifiable military mobilization or escalation signals amid ongoing diplomatic maneuvering. During the May 13-14 Trump-Xi summit in Beijing, Xi Jinping warned of potential U.S.-China conflict over Taiwan and U.S. arms sales, yet talks emphasized de-escalation alongside Iran war and trade issues, with no reported heightened PLA activity in the Taiwan Strait. Recent U.S. intelligence assessments confirm Chinese leaders lack a fixed invasion timeline for 2027, favoring non-military unification paths. Cross-strait gestures, including resumed direct flights after KMT Chair Cheng Li-wun's April meeting with Xi, underscore economic integration efforts over confrontation, while Taiwan advances defense spending and U.S. alliances deter aggression despite gray-zone patrols.

This market will resolve to "Yes" if China commences a military offensive intended to establish control over any portion of the Republic of China (Taiwan) by June 30, 2027, 11:59 PM ET. Otherwise, this market will resolve to "No".

Territory under the administration of the Republic of China, including any inhabited islands, will qualify; however, uninhabited islands will not qualify.

The resolution source for this market will be official confirmation by China, Taiwan, the United Nations, or any permanent member of the UN Security Council; however, a consensus of credible reporting will also be used.
Обсяг
$183,015
Дата завершення
Jun 30, 2027
Ринок відкрито
Apr 1, 2026, 12:17 PM ET

Resolver

0x65070BE91...
This market will resolve to "Yes" if China commences a military offensive intended to establish control over any portion of the Republic of China (Taiwan) by June 30, 2027, 11:59 PM ET. Otherwise, this market will resolve to "No". Territory under the administration of the Republic of China, including any inhabited islands, will qualify; however, uninhabited islands will not qualify. The resolution source for this market will be official confirmation by China, Taiwan, the United Nations, or any permanent member of the UN Security Council; however, a consensus of credible reporting will also be used.
This market will resolve to "Yes" if China commences a military offensive intended to establish control over any portion of the Republic of China (Taiwan) by June 30, 2027, 11:59 PM ET. Otherwise, this market will resolve to "No". Territory under the administration of the Republic of China, including any inhabited islands, will qualify; however, uninhabited islands will not qualify. The resolution source for this market will be official confirmation by China, Taiwan, the United Nations, or any permanent member of the UN Security Council; however, a consensus of credible reporting will also be used.Trader consensus prices "No" at 85.5% for a Chinese invasion of Taiwan by June 30, 2027, reflecting the absence of verifiable military mobilization or escalation signals amid ongoing diplomatic maneuvering. During the May 13-14 Trump-Xi summit in Beijing, Xi Jinping warned of potential U.S.-China conflict over Taiwan and U.S. arms sales, yet talks emphasized de-escalation alongside Iran war and trade issues, with no reported heightened PLA activity in the Taiwan Strait. Recent U.S. intelligence assessments confirm Chinese leaders lack a fixed invasion timeline for 2027, favoring non-military unification paths. Cross-strait gestures, including resumed direct flights after KMT Chair Cheng Li-wun's April meeting with Xi, underscore economic integration efforts over confrontation, while Taiwan advances defense spending and U.S. alliances deter aggression despite gray-zone patrols.

This market will resolve to "Yes" if China commences a military offensive intended to establish control over any portion of the Republic of China (Taiwan) by June 30, 2027, 11:59 PM ET. Otherwise, this market will resolve to "No".

Territory under the administration of the Republic of China, including any inhabited islands, will qualify; however, uninhabited islands will not qualify.

The resolution source for this market will be official confirmation by China, Taiwan, the United Nations, or any permanent member of the UN Security Council; however, a consensus of credible reporting will also be used.
Обсяг
$183,015
Дата завершення
Jun 30, 2027
Ринок відкрито
Apr 1, 2026, 12:17 PM ET

Resolver

0x65070BE91...
This market will resolve to "Yes" if China commences a military offensive intended to establish control over any portion of the Republic of China (Taiwan) by June 30, 2027, 11:59 PM ET. Otherwise, this market will resolve to "No". Territory under the administration of the Republic of China, including any inhabited islands, will qualify; however, uninhabited islands will not qualify. The resolution source for this market will be official confirmation by China, Taiwan, the United Nations, or any permanent member of the UN Security Council; however, a consensus of credible reporting will also be used.

Обережно з зовнішніми посиланнями.

Часті запитання

«Will China invade Taiwan by June 30, 2027?» — це ринок прогнозів на Polymarket, де трейдери купують і продають акції «Так» або «Ні» залежно від того, чи вірять вони, що ця подія станеться. Поточна краудсорсингова ймовірність — 14% для «Yes». Наприклад, якщо «Так» коштує 14¢, ринок колективно оцінює шанс цієї події в 14%. Ці шанси безперервно змінюються, коли трейдери реагують на нові події. Акції правильного результату погашаються по $1 кожна при вирішенні ринку.

Станом на сьогодні, «Will China invade Taiwan by June 30, 2027?» згенерував $183K загального обсягу торгів з моменту запуску ринку Apr 1, 2026. Цей рівень торгової активності відображає сильну залученість спільноти Polymarket та забезпечує, що поточні шанси базуються на глибокому пулі учасників ринку. Ви можете відстежувати рухи цін наживо та торгувати будь-яким результатом прямо на цій сторінці.

Щоб торгувати на «Will China invade Taiwan by June 30, 2027?», просто оберіть, чи вірите ви, що відповідь — «Так» або «Ні». Кожна сторона має поточну ціну, що відображає ймовірність ринку. Введіть суму та натисніть «Торгувати». Якщо ви купили акції «Так» і результат — «Так», кожна акція виплачує $1. Якщо «Ні» — ваші акції «Так» коштують $0. Ви також можете продати акції в будь-який час до вирішення.

Поточна ймовірність для «Will China invade Taiwan by June 30, 2027?» — 14% для «Yes». Це означає, що спільнота Polymarket вважає, що є 14% шанс, що ця подія станеться. Ці шанси оновлюються в реальному часі.

Правила вирішення для «Will China invade Taiwan by June 30, 2027?» точно визначають, що має статися для оголошення переможця — включаючи офіційні джерела даних. Ви можете переглянути повні критерії вирішення в розділі «Правила» на цій сторінці. Рекомендуємо уважно прочитати правила перед торгівлею.