Trader consensus prices "No" at 92.5% for a Chinese invasion of Taiwan by year-end, driven by the absence of verifiable military escalations and recent U.S. intelligence assessments deeming a 2026 or 2027 attack unlikely. At today's Trump-Xi summit in Beijing, President Xi reiterated Taiwan as a high-priority red line, warning of potential clashes over U.S. arms sales, while urging an end to military pressure—but no new invasion signals emerged, aligning with de-escalation rhetoric. Ongoing U.S. commitments, including approved arms packages, bolster Taiwan's defenses alongside economic interdependence deterring conflict. Barring sudden military mobilization or diplomatic breakdowns, structural barriers like high invasion costs sustain this positioning through December 31, 2026.
Експериментальне резюме, згенероване ШІ з посиланням на дані Polymarket. Це не торгова порада і не впливає на вирішення цього ринку. · ОновленоЧи вторгнеться Китай на Тайвань до кінця 2026 року?
Чи вторгнеться Китай на Тайвань до кінця 2026 року?
Так
$23,356,221 Обс.
$23,356,221 Обс.
Так
$23,356,221 Обс.
$23,356,221 Обс.
Territory under the administration of the Republic of China including any inhabited islands will qualify, however uninhabited islands will not qualify.
The resolution source for this market will be will be official confirmation by China, Taiwan, the United Nations, or any permanent member of the UN Security Council, however a consensus of credible reporting will also be used.
Ринок відкрито: Jul 24, 2025, 7:37 PM ET
Вирішувач
0x157Ce2d67...We anticipate rolling out a new rewards and oracle-resolution system later this year that will generate returns on your positions, at which point there will be a simple 1-click migration.
Territory under the administration of the Republic of China including any inhabited islands will qualify, however uninhabited islands will not qualify.
The resolution source for this market will be will be official confirmation by China, Taiwan, the United Nations, or any permanent member of the UN Security Council, however a consensus of credible reporting will also be used.
Вирішувач
0x157Ce2d67...We anticipate rolling out a new rewards and oracle-resolution system later this year that will generate returns on your positions, at which point there will be a simple 1-click migration.
Trader consensus prices "No" at 92.5% for a Chinese invasion of Taiwan by year-end, driven by the absence of verifiable military escalations and recent U.S. intelligence assessments deeming a 2026 or 2027 attack unlikely. At today's Trump-Xi summit in Beijing, President Xi reiterated Taiwan as a high-priority red line, warning of potential clashes over U.S. arms sales, while urging an end to military pressure—but no new invasion signals emerged, aligning with de-escalation rhetoric. Ongoing U.S. commitments, including approved arms packages, bolster Taiwan's defenses alongside economic interdependence deterring conflict. Barring sudden military mobilization or diplomatic breakdowns, structural barriers like high invasion costs sustain this positioning through December 31, 2026.
Експериментальне резюме, згенероване ШІ з посиланням на дані Polymarket. Це не торгова порада і не впливає на вирішення цього ринку. · Оновлено
Обережно з зовнішніми посиланнями.
Обережно з зовнішніми посиланнями.
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