Ongoing hostilities and stalled trilateral negotiations continue to shape trader views on a Ukraine-Russia peace deal before 2027. Early 2026 talks in Abu Dhabi and Geneva produced only prisoner exchanges without agreement on core issues such as territorial control, ceasefire terms, or security guarantees. Discussions have remained paused since February amid shifting U.S. priorities, with U.S. officials later noting the need for "new ideas" during July contacts. As of mid-August 2026, Russia holds roughly 20 percent of Ukrainian territory with slow frontline advances, while Ukrainian long-range strikes target Russian infrastructure and both sides exchange fire. Recent Ukrainian proposals delivered to U.S. negotiators have not yielded breakthroughs, and military operations persist without signs of imminent comprehensive accord.
Експериментальне резюме, згенероване ШІ з посиланням на дані Polymarket. Це не торгова порада і не впливає на вирішення цього ринку. · Оновлено17% шанс
$2,557,120 Обс.
$2,557,120 Обс.
Dec 31, 2026
17% шанс
$2,557,120 Обс.
$2,557,120 Обс.
Dec 31, 2026
This market will resolve to “Yes” if, Ukraine signs any written instrument (e.g., treaty, ceasefire/armistice, framework/“roadmap,” exchange of letters, or mediated agreement text) that: (i) includes both Ukraine and the Russian Federation as parties, and (ii) either ends hostilities/establishes a ceasefire or commits both sides to a defined process toward ending the war (i.e., stated objective of peace/normalization plus principles, steps, and/or a timetable) by December 31, 2026, 11:59 PM ET. Otherwise, this market will resolve to “No”.
Only Ukraine’s signature is required; Russia’s signature or ratification is not.
Localized, temporary, or issue-specific arrangements—such as airstrike-limitation or deconfliction protocols, humanitarian pauses, evacuation corridors, prisoner-exchange or trade/export arrangements, border/DMZ adjustments, or ceasefires limited to a particular sector/front/municipality—will not qualify.
The document must bear a wet-ink or officially issued electronic signature of an authorized Ukrainian representative. Unsigned agreements (e.g., the 2023 Ohrid arrangement) will not qualify regardless of if they are otherwise officially enacted.
The primary resolution source will be a consensus of credible reporting.
Ongoing hostilities and stalled trilateral negotiations continue to shape trader views on a Ukraine-Russia peace deal before 2027. Early 2026 talks in Abu Dhabi and Geneva produced only prisoner exchanges without agreement on core issues such as territorial control, ceasefire terms, or security guarantees. Discussions have remained paused since February amid shifting U.S. priorities, with U.S. officials later noting the need for "new ideas" during July contacts. As of mid-August 2026, Russia holds roughly 20 percent of Ukrainian territory with slow frontline advances, while Ukrainian long-range strikes target Russian infrastructure and both sides exchange fire. Recent Ukrainian proposals delivered to U.S. negotiators have not yielded breakthroughs, and military operations persist without signs of imminent comprehensive accord.
This market will resolve to “Yes” if, Ukraine signs any written instrument (e.g., treaty, ceasefire/armistice, framework/“roadmap,” exchange of letters, or mediated agreement text) that: (i) includes both Ukraine and the Russian Federation as parties, and (ii) either ends hostilities/establishes a ceasefire or commits both sides to a defined process toward ending the war (i.e., stated objective of peace/normalization plus principles, steps, and/or a timetable) by December 31, 2026, 11:59 PM ET. Otherwise, this market will resolve to “No”.
Only Ukraine’s signature is required; Russia’s signature or ratification is not.
Localized, temporary, or issue-specific arrangements—such as airstrike-limitation or deconfliction protocols, humanitarian pauses, evacuation corridors, prisoner-exchange or trade/export arrangements, border/DMZ adjustments, or ceasefires limited to a particular sector/front/municipality—will not qualify.
The document must bear a wet-ink or officially issued electronic signature of an authorized Ukrainian representative. Unsigned agreements (e.g., the 2023 Ohrid arrangement) will not qualify regardless of if they are otherwise officially enacted.
The primary resolution source will be a consensus of credible reporting.
Only Ukraine’s signature is required; Russia’s signature or ratification is not.
Localized, temporary, or issue-specific arrangements—such as airstrike-limitation or deconfliction protocols, humanitarian pauses, evacuation corridors, prisoner-exchange or trade/export arrangements, border/DMZ adjustments, or ceasefires limited to a particular sector/front/municipality—will not qualify.
The document must bear a wet-ink or officially issued electronic signature of an authorized Ukrainian representative. Unsigned agreements (e.g., the 2023 Ohrid arrangement) will not qualify regardless of if they are otherwise officially enacted.
The primary resolution source will be a consensus of credible reporting.
Ринок відкрито: Nov 5, 2025, 12:56 PM ET
Обсяг
$2,557,120Дата завершення
Dec 31, 2026Ринок відкрито
Nov 5, 2025, 12:56 PM ETResolver
0x65070BE91...This market will resolve to “Yes” if, Ukraine signs any written instrument (e.g., treaty, ceasefire/armistice, framework/“roadmap,” exchange of letters, or mediated agreement text) that: (i) includes both Ukraine and the Russian Federation as parties, and (ii) either ends hostilities/establishes a ceasefire or commits both sides to a defined process toward ending the war (i.e., stated objective of peace/normalization plus principles, steps, and/or a timetable) by December 31, 2026, 11:59 PM ET. Otherwise, this market will resolve to “No”.
Only Ukraine’s signature is required; Russia’s signature or ratification is not.
Localized, temporary, or issue-specific arrangements—such as airstrike-limitation or deconfliction protocols, humanitarian pauses, evacuation corridors, prisoner-exchange or trade/export arrangements, border/DMZ adjustments, or ceasefires limited to a particular sector/front/municipality—will not qualify.
The document must bear a wet-ink or officially issued electronic signature of an authorized Ukrainian representative. Unsigned agreements (e.g., the 2023 Ohrid arrangement) will not qualify regardless of if they are otherwise officially enacted.
The primary resolution source will be a consensus of credible reporting.
Ongoing hostilities and stalled trilateral negotiations continue to shape trader views on a Ukraine-Russia peace deal before 2027. Early 2026 talks in Abu Dhabi and Geneva produced only prisoner exchanges without agreement on core issues such as territorial control, ceasefire terms, or security guarantees. Discussions have remained paused since February amid shifting U.S. priorities, with U.S. officials later noting the need for "new ideas" during July contacts. As of mid-August 2026, Russia holds roughly 20 percent of Ukrainian territory with slow frontline advances, while Ukrainian long-range strikes target Russian infrastructure and both sides exchange fire. Recent Ukrainian proposals delivered to U.S. negotiators have not yielded breakthroughs, and military operations persist without signs of imminent comprehensive accord.
This market will resolve to “Yes” if, Ukraine signs any written instrument (e.g., treaty, ceasefire/armistice, framework/“roadmap,” exchange of letters, or mediated agreement text) that: (i) includes both Ukraine and the Russian Federation as parties, and (ii) either ends hostilities/establishes a ceasefire or commits both sides to a defined process toward ending the war (i.e., stated objective of peace/normalization plus principles, steps, and/or a timetable) by December 31, 2026, 11:59 PM ET. Otherwise, this market will resolve to “No”.
Only Ukraine’s signature is required; Russia’s signature or ratification is not.
Localized, temporary, or issue-specific arrangements—such as airstrike-limitation or deconfliction protocols, humanitarian pauses, evacuation corridors, prisoner-exchange or trade/export arrangements, border/DMZ adjustments, or ceasefires limited to a particular sector/front/municipality—will not qualify.
The document must bear a wet-ink or officially issued electronic signature of an authorized Ukrainian representative. Unsigned agreements (e.g., the 2023 Ohrid arrangement) will not qualify regardless of if they are otherwise officially enacted.
The primary resolution source will be a consensus of credible reporting.
Only Ukraine’s signature is required; Russia’s signature or ratification is not.
Localized, temporary, or issue-specific arrangements—such as airstrike-limitation or deconfliction protocols, humanitarian pauses, evacuation corridors, prisoner-exchange or trade/export arrangements, border/DMZ adjustments, or ceasefires limited to a particular sector/front/municipality—will not qualify.
The document must bear a wet-ink or officially issued electronic signature of an authorized Ukrainian representative. Unsigned agreements (e.g., the 2023 Ohrid arrangement) will not qualify regardless of if they are otherwise officially enacted.
The primary resolution source will be a consensus of credible reporting.
Обсяг
$2,557,120Дата завершення
Dec 31, 2026Ринок відкрито
Nov 5, 2025, 12:56 PM ETResolver
0x65070BE91...Ongoing hostilities and stalled trilateral negotiations continue to shape trader views on a Ukraine-Russia peace deal before 2027. Early 2026 talks in Abu Dhabi and Geneva produced only prisoner exchanges without agreement on core issues such as territorial control, ceasefire terms, or security guarantees. Discussions have remained paused since February amid shifting U.S. priorities, with U.S. officials later noting the need for "new ideas" during July contacts. As of mid-August 2026, Russia holds roughly 20 percent of Ukrainian territory with slow frontline advances, while Ukrainian long-range strikes target Russian infrastructure and both sides exchange fire. Recent Ukrainian proposals delivered to U.S. negotiators have not yielded breakthroughs, and military operations persist without signs of imminent comprehensive accord.
Експериментальне резюме, згенероване ШІ з посиланням на дані Polymarket. Це не торгова порада і не впливає на вирішення цього ринку. · Оновлено
Обережно з зовнішніми посиланнями.
Обережно з зовнішніми посиланнями.
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