This market will resolve to "Yes" if Russia conducts a nuclear test by the listed date (ET). Otherwise, this market will resolve to "No".
A nuclear test is defined as the intentional non-combat detonation of a device by Russia that produces a nuclear chain reaction (fission or fusion), regardless of yield.
Accidents, radiological dispersal devices (bombs that spread radioactive material using conventional explosives such as "dirty bombs"), or actions by third parties will not count toward this market's resolution.
Tests not explicitly claimed by Russia may still qualify if a clear consensus of credible reporting attributes the nuclear detonation to Russia. For example, an unclaimed nuclear test analogous to the 1979 "Vela Incident" would count if credible reporting attributes it to Russia.
The resolution source for this market will be a broad consensus of credible reporting.Russia's May 12 test launch of the nuclear-capable RS-28 Sarmat intercontinental ballistic missile from Plesetsk, announced by President Putin for deployment by year-end, underscores strategic nuclear modernization after New START's February 2026 expiration but does not qualify as a nuclear detonation under market criteria. Defense Minister Belousov's recent proposals to ready Novaya Zemlya infrastructure, alongside early May Kura range exercises, heighten speculation amid CTBTO warnings of potential non-adherence to testing norms. Moscow maintains it will resume only if other nuclear powers do, upholding a de facto moratorium since 1990 despite Ukraine war escalation rhetoric. Trader consensus reflects low probabilities due to verification challenges, sanctions, and diplomatic pressures, with further ICBM trials as key upcoming catalysts.
This market will resolve to "Yes" if Russia conducts a nuclear test by the listed date (ET). Otherwise, this market will resolve to "No".
A nuclear test is defined as the intentional non-combat detonation of a device by Russia that produces a nuclear chain reaction (fission or fusion), regardless of yield.
Accidents, radiological dispersal devices (bombs that spread radioactive material using conventional explosives such as "dirty bombs"), or actions by third parties will not count toward this market's resolution.
Tests not explicitly claimed by Russia may still qualify if a clear consensus of credible reporting attributes the nuclear detonation to Russia. For example, an unclaimed nuclear test analogous to the 1979 "Vela Incident" would count if credible reporting attributes it to Russia.
The resolution source for this market will be a broad consensus of credible reporting.
This market will resolve to "Yes" if Russia conducts a nuclear test by the listed date (ET). Otherwise, this market will resolve to "No".
A nuclear test is defined as the intentional non-combat detonation of a device by Russia that produces a nuclear chain reaction (fission or fusion), regardless of yield.
Accidents, radiological dispersal devices (bombs that spread radioactive material using conventional explosives such as "dirty bombs"), or actions by third parties will not count toward this market's resolution.
Tests not explicitly claimed by Russia may still qualify if a clear consensus of credible reporting attributes the nuclear detonation to Russia. For example, an unclaimed nuclear test analogous to the 1979 "Vela Incident" would count if credible reporting attributes it to Russia.
The resolution source for this market will be a broad consensus of credible reporting.
Russia's May 12 test launch of the nuclear-capable RS-28 Sarmat intercontinental ballistic missile from Plesetsk, announced by President Putin for deployment by year-end, underscores strategic nuclear modernization after New START's February 2026 expiration but does not qualify as a nuclear detonation under market criteria. Defense Minister Belousov's recent proposals to ready Novaya Zemlya infrastructure, alongside early May Kura range exercises, heighten speculation amid CTBTO warnings of potential non-adherence to testing norms. Moscow maintains it will resume only if other nuclear powers do, upholding a de facto moratorium since 1990 despite Ukraine war escalation rhetoric. Trader consensus reflects low probabilities due to verification challenges, sanctions, and diplomatic pressures, with further ICBM trials as key upcoming catalysts.
Експериментальне резюме, згенероване ШІ з посиланням на дані Polymarket. Це не торгова порада і не впливає на вирішення цього ринку. · Оновлено
May 7 2026
Russia uses nuclear-capable Oreshnik missile in massive strike on Ukraine
September 30, 2026 dips to 5%1%
Russia launched a massive missile and drone strike on Ukraine, including the use of the nuclear-capable Oreshnik intermediate-range ballistic missile. While this demonstrated Russia’s willingness to deploy nuclear-capable weapons, no nuclear test was reported, and the strike was conventional in nature, influencing market perceptions downward for a nuclear test occurring soon.
May 6 2026
Russia and Ukraine envoys meet in Abu Dhabi for US-brokered peace talks
Diplomatic talks between Russia and Ukraine, brokered by the U.S., aimed at ending the nearly four-year war, signaled ongoing efforts to avoid escalation including nuclear testing. The talks coincided with the expiration of the last nuclear arms treaty, reinforcing market expectations against a nuclear test by Russia in the near term.
Apr 29 2026
Russia’s nuclear-capable Oreshnik missiles enter active service in Belarus
September 30, 2026 dips to 6%1%
Russia announced that its nuclear-capable Oreshnik missile system had entered active service in Belarus, demonstrating enhanced nuclear delivery capabilities. This development raised concerns about nuclear escalation but did not indicate an actual nuclear test, contributing to market uncertainty and price adjustments.
Apr 13 2026
U.S. imposes naval blockade on Iranian ports amid fragile ceasefire with Iran
December 31, 2026 dips to 8%4%
The U.S. military blockade of Iranian ports near the Strait of Hormuz raised regional tensions and cast doubt on the fragile ceasefire, increasing global security concerns but not directly implicating Russia in nuclear testing. This heightened geopolitical risk may have influenced market perceptions of nuclear escalation risks generally.
Apr 2 2026
Russia launches massive missile and drone strike on Ukraine including nuclear-capable missile
June 30, 2026 plunges to 2%48%
On April 2, 2026, Russia conducted a large-scale missile and drone attack on Ukraine, using a nuclear-capable intermediate-range ballistic missile. While this demonstrated Russia's nuclear-capable strike capability, it was not a nuclear test, contributing to market price drops as fears of an actual nuclear test diminished.
Apr 2 2026
No credible reports of Russia conducting nuclear test amid heightened tensions
December 31, 2026 plunges to 9%42%
Despite military escalations and deployment of nuclear-capable weapons, no credible reports or confirmations emerged of Russia conducting a nuclear test during the analysis window. This absence of evidence led to a significant market reassessment and price decline for the likelihood of a nuclear test by Russia by the listed dates.
Apr 1 2026
Russia deploys nuclear-capable Oreshnik missiles in Belarus amid Ukraine conflict
September 30, 2026 drops to 46%5%
On April 1, 2026, Russia announced that its nuclear-capable Oreshnik missile system had entered active service in Belarus, signaling a strategic military escalation. This deployment raised concerns about potential nuclear use but did not constitute a nuclear test, leading to initial market uncertainty reflected in prices around this date.
This market will resolve to "Yes" if Russia conducts a nuclear test by the listed date (ET). Otherwise, this market will resolve to "No".
A nuclear test is defined as the intentional non-combat detonation of a device by Russia that produces a nuclear chain reaction (fission or fusion), regardless of yield.
Accidents, radiological dispersal devices (bombs that spread radioactive material using conventional explosives such as "dirty bombs"), or actions by third parties will not count toward this market's resolution.
Tests not explicitly claimed by Russia may still qualify if a clear consensus of credible reporting attributes the nuclear detonation to Russia. For example, an unclaimed nuclear test analogous to the 1979 "Vela Incident" would count if credible reporting attributes it to Russia.
The resolution source for this market will be a broad consensus of credible reporting.Russia's May 12 test launch of the nuclear-capable RS-28 Sarmat intercontinental ballistic missile from Plesetsk, announced by President Putin for deployment by year-end, underscores strategic nuclear modernization after New START's February 2026 expiration but does not qualify as a nuclear detonation under market criteria. Defense Minister Belousov's recent proposals to ready Novaya Zemlya infrastructure, alongside early May Kura range exercises, heighten speculation amid CTBTO warnings of potential non-adherence to testing norms. Moscow maintains it will resume only if other nuclear powers do, upholding a de facto moratorium since 1990 despite Ukraine war escalation rhetoric. Trader consensus reflects low probabilities due to verification challenges, sanctions, and diplomatic pressures, with further ICBM trials as key upcoming catalysts.
This market will resolve to "Yes" if Russia conducts a nuclear test by the listed date (ET). Otherwise, this market will resolve to "No".
A nuclear test is defined as the intentional non-combat detonation of a device by Russia that produces a nuclear chain reaction (fission or fusion), regardless of yield.
Accidents, radiological dispersal devices (bombs that spread radioactive material using conventional explosives such as "dirty bombs"), or actions by third parties will not count toward this market's resolution.
Tests not explicitly claimed by Russia may still qualify if a clear consensus of credible reporting attributes the nuclear detonation to Russia. For example, an unclaimed nuclear test analogous to the 1979 "Vela Incident" would count if credible reporting attributes it to Russia.
The resolution source for this market will be a broad consensus of credible reporting.
This market will resolve to "Yes" if Russia conducts a nuclear test by the listed date (ET). Otherwise, this market will resolve to "No".
A nuclear test is defined as the intentional non-combat detonation of a device by Russia that produces a nuclear chain reaction (fission or fusion), regardless of yield.
Accidents, radiological dispersal devices (bombs that spread radioactive material using conventional explosives such as "dirty bombs"), or actions by third parties will not count toward this market's resolution.
Tests not explicitly claimed by Russia may still qualify if a clear consensus of credible reporting attributes the nuclear detonation to Russia. For example, an unclaimed nuclear test analogous to the 1979 "Vela Incident" would count if credible reporting attributes it to Russia.
The resolution source for this market will be a broad consensus of credible reporting.
Russia's May 12 test launch of the nuclear-capable RS-28 Sarmat intercontinental ballistic missile from Plesetsk, announced by President Putin for deployment by year-end, underscores strategic nuclear modernization after New START's February 2026 expiration but does not qualify as a nuclear detonation under market criteria. Defense Minister Belousov's recent proposals to ready Novaya Zemlya infrastructure, alongside early May Kura range exercises, heighten speculation amid CTBTO warnings of potential non-adherence to testing norms. Moscow maintains it will resume only if other nuclear powers do, upholding a de facto moratorium since 1990 despite Ukraine war escalation rhetoric. Trader consensus reflects low probabilities due to verification challenges, sanctions, and diplomatic pressures, with further ICBM trials as key upcoming catalysts.
Експериментальне резюме, згенероване ШІ з посиланням на дані Polymarket. Це не торгова порада і не впливає на вирішення цього ринку. · Оновлено
May 7 2026
Russia uses nuclear-capable Oreshnik missile in massive strike on Ukraine
September 30, 2026 dips to 5%1%
Russia launched a massive missile and drone strike on Ukraine, including the use of the nuclear-capable Oreshnik intermediate-range ballistic missile. While this demonstrated Russia’s willingness to deploy nuclear-capable weapons, no nuclear test was reported, and the strike was conventional in nature, influencing market perceptions downward for a nuclear test occurring soon.
May 6 2026
Russia and Ukraine envoys meet in Abu Dhabi for US-brokered peace talks
Diplomatic talks between Russia and Ukraine, brokered by the U.S., aimed at ending the nearly four-year war, signaled ongoing efforts to avoid escalation including nuclear testing. The talks coincided with the expiration of the last nuclear arms treaty, reinforcing market expectations against a nuclear test by Russia in the near term.
Apr 29 2026
Russia’s nuclear-capable Oreshnik missiles enter active service in Belarus
September 30, 2026 dips to 6%1%
Russia announced that its nuclear-capable Oreshnik missile system had entered active service in Belarus, demonstrating enhanced nuclear delivery capabilities. This development raised concerns about nuclear escalation but did not indicate an actual nuclear test, contributing to market uncertainty and price adjustments.
Apr 13 2026
U.S. imposes naval blockade on Iranian ports amid fragile ceasefire with Iran
December 31, 2026 dips to 8%4%
The U.S. military blockade of Iranian ports near the Strait of Hormuz raised regional tensions and cast doubt on the fragile ceasefire, increasing global security concerns but not directly implicating Russia in nuclear testing. This heightened geopolitical risk may have influenced market perceptions of nuclear escalation risks generally.
Apr 2 2026
Russia launches massive missile and drone strike on Ukraine including nuclear-capable missile
June 30, 2026 plunges to 2%48%
On April 2, 2026, Russia conducted a large-scale missile and drone attack on Ukraine, using a nuclear-capable intermediate-range ballistic missile. While this demonstrated Russia's nuclear-capable strike capability, it was not a nuclear test, contributing to market price drops as fears of an actual nuclear test diminished.
Apr 2 2026
No credible reports of Russia conducting nuclear test amid heightened tensions
December 31, 2026 plunges to 9%42%
Despite military escalations and deployment of nuclear-capable weapons, no credible reports or confirmations emerged of Russia conducting a nuclear test during the analysis window. This absence of evidence led to a significant market reassessment and price decline for the likelihood of a nuclear test by Russia by the listed dates.
Apr 1 2026
Russia deploys nuclear-capable Oreshnik missiles in Belarus amid Ukraine conflict
September 30, 2026 drops to 46%5%
On April 1, 2026, Russia announced that its nuclear-capable Oreshnik missile system had entered active service in Belarus, signaling a strategic military escalation. This deployment raised concerns about potential nuclear use but did not constitute a nuclear test, leading to initial market uncertainty reflected in prices around this date.
Обережно з зовнішніми посиланнями.
Обережно з зовнішніми посиланнями.
Часті запитання
«Ядерне випробування Росії...?» — це ринок прогнозів на Polymarket з 6 можливими результатами, де трейдери купують і продають акції залежно від того, що, на їхню думку, станеться. Поточний лідер — «31 грудня 2026 року» з 8%, далі «30 вересня 2026 року» з 5%. Ціни відображають краудсорсингові ймовірності в реальному часі. Акції правильного результату погашаються по $1 кожна при вирішенні ринку.
Станом на сьогодні, «Ядерне випробування Росії...?» згенерував $1.4 million загального обсягу торгів з моменту запуску ринку Nov 5, 2025. Цей рівень торгової активності відображає сильну залученість спільноти Polymarket та забезпечує, що поточні шанси базуються на глибокому пулі учасників ринку. Ви можете відстежувати рухи цін наживо та торгувати будь-яким результатом прямо на цій сторінці.
Щоб торгувати на «Ядерне випробування Росії...?», перегляньте 6 доступних результатів на цій сторінці. Кожен результат відображає поточну ціну — ймовірність ринку. Оберіть результат, оберіть «Так» чи «Ні», введіть суму та натисніть «Торгувати». Якщо ваш вибір правильний при вирішенні, акції «Так» виплачують $1. Якщо ні — $0. Ви також можете продати акції в будь-який час до вирішення.
Це відкритий ринок. Поточний лідер для «Ядерне випробування Росії...?» — «31 грудня 2026 року» лише з 8%, а «30 вересня 2026 року» — близько позаду з 5%. Жоден результат не має впевненої більшості — трейдери вважають це дуже невизначеним.
Правила вирішення для «Ядерне випробування Росії...?» точно визначають, що має статися для оголошення переможця — включаючи офіційні джерела даних. Ви можете переглянути повні критерії вирішення в розділі «Правила» на цій сторінці. Рекомендуємо уважно прочитати правила перед торгівлею.
Так. Вам не потрібно торгувати, щоб бути в курсі. Ця сторінка служить трекером наживо для «Ядерне випробування Росії...?». Ймовірності результатів оновлюються в реальному часі з новими угодами. Збережіть сторінку та перегляньте коментарі інших трейдерів.
Шанси Polymarket встановлюються реальними трейдерами, які вкладають реальні гроші, що сприяє точним прогнозам. З $1.4 million торгового обсягу на «Ядерне випробування Росії...?» ці ціни агрегують колективні знання тисяч учасників. Polymarket має місячний показник точності 94%. Для актуальної статистики точності відвідайте сторінку точності на Polymarket.
Щоб зробити першу угоду на «Ядерне випробування Росії...?», зареєструйте безкоштовний акаунт на Polymarket та поповніть його криптою, кредитною чи дебетовою карткою або банківським переказом. Після поповнення поверніться на цю сторінку, оберіть результат, введіть суму та натисніть «Торгувати». Якщо ви новачок на ринках прогнозів, натисніть «Як це працює» вгорі будь-якої сторінки Polymarket.
На Polymarket ціна кожного результату відображає ймовірність ринку. Ціна 8¢ для «31 грудня 2026 року» на ринку «Ядерне випробування Росії...?» означає, що трейдери колективно оцінюють шанс цього результату приблизно в 8%. Якщо ви купите акції «Так» за 8¢ і результат правильний, ви отримаєте $1.00 за акцію — прибуток 92¢ за акцію.
Запланована дата завершення ринку «Ядерне випробування Росії...?» минула, але ринок ще не вирішено офіційно. Ринок залишається відкритим для торгівлі до офіційного вирішення. Перевірте статус вирішення та розділ «Правила» на цій сторінці.
Ринок «Ядерне випробування Росії...?» має зростаюча дискусія з 7 коментарями, де трейдери діляться аналізом, обговорюють результати та останні новини. Прокрутіть вниз до розділу коментарів. Ви також можете фільтрувати за «Топ власники» або переглянути вкладку «Активність» для стрічки угод у реальному часі.
Polymarket — найбільший ринок прогнозів у світі, де ви можете бути в курсі подій та заробляти на знаннях реальних подій. Трейдери купують і продають акції на результати тем від політики та виборів до крипто, фінансів, спорту, технологій та культури, включаючи ринки, як «Ядерне випробування Росії...?». Ціни відображають краудсорсингові ймовірності в реальному часі.
Обережно з зовнішніми посиланнями.
Обережно з зовнішніми посиланнями.
Часті запитання