Ongoing U.S.-mediated talks between Russia and Ukraine have stalled over territorial concessions, security guarantees, and NATO-related issues, with recent short-lived ceasefires in 2026 failing to hold. Ukraine has forwarded fresh proposals to Washington for ending the conflict, while Russia continues military operations and has dismissed offers such as a Black Sea truce amid concerns over food supplies and mobilization ahead of its parliamentary elections. Brief holiday pauses occurred earlier in the year but collapsed quickly, underscoring persistent gaps between the parties' positions. These dynamics, including U.S. pressure for a deal and Russia's insistence on meeting core demands, shape trader assessments of whether a formal ceasefire agreement can be reached within any specified timeframe.
Експериментальне резюме, згенероване ШІ з посиланням на дані Polymarket. Це не торгова порада і не впливає на вирішення цього ринку. · ОновленоRussia x Ukraine ceasefire agreement by...?
Russia x Ukraine ceasefire agreement by...?
$5,878,597 Обс.
Oct 31, 2026
October 31
12%
August 31
2%
December 31
26%
$5,878,597 Обс.
October 31
$845,571 Обс.
12%
August 31
$359,451 Обс.
2%
December 31
$2,136,244 Обс.
26%
This market will resolve to “Yes” if there is a ceasefire agreement between Russia and Ukraine by the specified date, 11:59 PM ET. Otherwise, this market will resolve to “No”.
A ceasefire agreement refers to any mutually-agreed suspension of direct military engagement between Russia and Ukraine, which is either officially announced by both countries or confirmed by a consensus of credible reporting to have been mutually agreed by both countries.
A broader peace deal, normalization agreement, political framework, truce, or humanitarian pause will qualify if it includes a mutually agreed suspension of direct military engagement, to be effective on a specified date. Agreements that outline future negotiations or de-escalation measures without an explicit, dated commitment to stop fighting will not qualify.
Any form of informal understanding, backchannel communication, de-escalation without an announced agreement, or unilateral pause in hostilities will not be considered a ceasefire agreement.
Only agreements which constitute a general pause in the conflict will qualify. Agreements which only apply to specific conflict categories (e.g. restrictions on certain target categories or certain locations) will not qualify.
If a qualifying agreement is officially reached before this market’s end date, this market will resolve to “Yes,” regardless of whether the ceasefire agreement officially takes effect after that date.
The primary resolution sources for this market will be official information from the governments of Russia and Ukraine and a consensus of credible reporting.Ongoing U.S.-mediated talks between Russia and Ukraine have stalled over territorial concessions, security guarantees, and NATO-related issues, with recent short-lived ceasefires in 2026 failing to hold. Ukraine has forwarded fresh proposals to Washington for ending the conflict, while Russia continues military operations and has dismissed offers such as a Black Sea truce amid concerns over food supplies and mobilization ahead of its parliamentary elections. Brief holiday pauses occurred earlier in the year but collapsed quickly, underscoring persistent gaps between the parties' positions. These dynamics, including U.S. pressure for a deal and Russia's insistence on meeting core demands, shape trader assessments of whether a formal ceasefire agreement can be reached within any specified timeframe.
This market will resolve to “Yes” if there is a ceasefire agreement between Russia and Ukraine by the specified date, 11:59 PM ET. Otherwise, this market will resolve to “No”.
A ceasefire agreement refers to any mutually-agreed suspension of direct military engagement between Russia and Ukraine, which is either officially announced by both countries or confirmed by a consensus of credible reporting to have been mutually agreed by both countries.
A broader peace deal, normalization agreement, political framework, truce, or humanitarian pause will qualify if it includes a mutually agreed suspension of direct military engagement, to be effective on a specified date. Agreements that outline future negotiations or de-escalation measures without an explicit, dated commitment to stop fighting will not qualify.
Any form of informal understanding, backchannel communication, de-escalation without an announced agreement, or unilateral pause in hostilities will not be considered a ceasefire agreement.
Only agreements which constitute a general pause in the conflict will qualify. Agreements which only apply to specific conflict categories (e.g. restrictions on certain target categories or certain locations) will not qualify.
If a qualifying agreement is officially reached before this market’s end date, this market will resolve to “Yes,” regardless of whether the ceasefire agreement officially takes effect after that date.
The primary resolution sources for this market will be official information from the governments of Russia and Ukraine and a consensus of credible reporting.
A ceasefire agreement refers to any mutually-agreed suspension of direct military engagement between Russia and Ukraine, which is either officially announced by both countries or confirmed by a consensus of credible reporting to have been mutually agreed by both countries.
A broader peace deal, normalization agreement, political framework, truce, or humanitarian pause will qualify if it includes a mutually agreed suspension of direct military engagement, to be effective on a specified date. Agreements that outline future negotiations or de-escalation measures without an explicit, dated commitment to stop fighting will not qualify.
Any form of informal understanding, backchannel communication, de-escalation without an announced agreement, or unilateral pause in hostilities will not be considered a ceasefire agreement.
Only agreements which constitute a general pause in the conflict will qualify. Agreements which only apply to specific conflict categories (e.g. restrictions on certain target categories or certain locations) will not qualify.
If a qualifying agreement is officially reached before this market’s end date, this market will resolve to “Yes,” regardless of whether the ceasefire agreement officially takes effect after that date.
The primary resolution sources for this market will be official information from the governments of Russia and Ukraine and a consensus of credible reporting.
Ринок відкрито: May 12, 2026, 11:28 PM ET
Обсяг
$5,878,597Дата завершення
Dec 31, 2026Ринок відкрито
May 12, 2026, 11:28 PM ETResolver
0x65070BE91...This market will resolve to “Yes” if there is a ceasefire agreement between Russia and Ukraine by the specified date, 11:59 PM ET. Otherwise, this market will resolve to “No”.
A ceasefire agreement refers to any mutually-agreed suspension of direct military engagement between Russia and Ukraine, which is either officially announced by both countries or confirmed by a consensus of credible reporting to have been mutually agreed by both countries.
A broader peace deal, normalization agreement, political framework, truce, or humanitarian pause will qualify if it includes a mutually agreed suspension of direct military engagement, to be effective on a specified date. Agreements that outline future negotiations or de-escalation measures without an explicit, dated commitment to stop fighting will not qualify.
Any form of informal understanding, backchannel communication, de-escalation without an announced agreement, or unilateral pause in hostilities will not be considered a ceasefire agreement.
Only agreements which constitute a general pause in the conflict will qualify. Agreements which only apply to specific conflict categories (e.g. restrictions on certain target categories or certain locations) will not qualify.
If a qualifying agreement is officially reached before this market’s end date, this market will resolve to “Yes,” regardless of whether the ceasefire agreement officially takes effect after that date.
The primary resolution sources for this market will be official information from the governments of Russia and Ukraine and a consensus of credible reporting.Ongoing U.S.-mediated talks between Russia and Ukraine have stalled over territorial concessions, security guarantees, and NATO-related issues, with recent short-lived ceasefires in 2026 failing to hold. Ukraine has forwarded fresh proposals to Washington for ending the conflict, while Russia continues military operations and has dismissed offers such as a Black Sea truce amid concerns over food supplies and mobilization ahead of its parliamentary elections. Brief holiday pauses occurred earlier in the year but collapsed quickly, underscoring persistent gaps between the parties' positions. These dynamics, including U.S. pressure for a deal and Russia's insistence on meeting core demands, shape trader assessments of whether a formal ceasefire agreement can be reached within any specified timeframe.
This market will resolve to “Yes” if there is a ceasefire agreement between Russia and Ukraine by the specified date, 11:59 PM ET. Otherwise, this market will resolve to “No”.
A ceasefire agreement refers to any mutually-agreed suspension of direct military engagement between Russia and Ukraine, which is either officially announced by both countries or confirmed by a consensus of credible reporting to have been mutually agreed by both countries.
A broader peace deal, normalization agreement, political framework, truce, or humanitarian pause will qualify if it includes a mutually agreed suspension of direct military engagement, to be effective on a specified date. Agreements that outline future negotiations or de-escalation measures without an explicit, dated commitment to stop fighting will not qualify.
Any form of informal understanding, backchannel communication, de-escalation without an announced agreement, or unilateral pause in hostilities will not be considered a ceasefire agreement.
Only agreements which constitute a general pause in the conflict will qualify. Agreements which only apply to specific conflict categories (e.g. restrictions on certain target categories or certain locations) will not qualify.
If a qualifying agreement is officially reached before this market’s end date, this market will resolve to “Yes,” regardless of whether the ceasefire agreement officially takes effect after that date.
The primary resolution sources for this market will be official information from the governments of Russia and Ukraine and a consensus of credible reporting.
A ceasefire agreement refers to any mutually-agreed suspension of direct military engagement between Russia and Ukraine, which is either officially announced by both countries or confirmed by a consensus of credible reporting to have been mutually agreed by both countries.
A broader peace deal, normalization agreement, political framework, truce, or humanitarian pause will qualify if it includes a mutually agreed suspension of direct military engagement, to be effective on a specified date. Agreements that outline future negotiations or de-escalation measures without an explicit, dated commitment to stop fighting will not qualify.
Any form of informal understanding, backchannel communication, de-escalation without an announced agreement, or unilateral pause in hostilities will not be considered a ceasefire agreement.
Only agreements which constitute a general pause in the conflict will qualify. Agreements which only apply to specific conflict categories (e.g. restrictions on certain target categories or certain locations) will not qualify.
If a qualifying agreement is officially reached before this market’s end date, this market will resolve to “Yes,” regardless of whether the ceasefire agreement officially takes effect after that date.
The primary resolution sources for this market will be official information from the governments of Russia and Ukraine and a consensus of credible reporting.
Обсяг
$5,878,597Дата завершення
Dec 31, 2026Ринок відкрито
May 12, 2026, 11:28 PM ETResolver
0x65070BE91...Ongoing U.S.-mediated talks between Russia and Ukraine have stalled over territorial concessions, security guarantees, and NATO-related issues, with recent short-lived ceasefires in 2026 failing to hold. Ukraine has forwarded fresh proposals to Washington for ending the conflict, while Russia continues military operations and has dismissed offers such as a Black Sea truce amid concerns over food supplies and mobilization ahead of its parliamentary elections. Brief holiday pauses occurred earlier in the year but collapsed quickly, underscoring persistent gaps between the parties' positions. These dynamics, including U.S. pressure for a deal and Russia's insistence on meeting core demands, shape trader assessments of whether a formal ceasefire agreement can be reached within any specified timeframe.
Експериментальне резюме, згенероване ШІ з посиланням на дані Polymarket. Це не торгова порада і не впливає на вирішення цього ринку. · Оновлено
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