Ukraine's leadership has maintained a firm rejection of ceding the remaining Ukrainian-controlled portions of Donbas—roughly 20 percent of Donetsk—as a precondition for any ceasefire or settlement, viewing the fortified defensive lines as essential to national security. President Zelenskyy has repeatedly stated that unilateral withdrawal would require a national referendum, which polls indicate would fail, while Russian demands for full regional control remain unchanged and incompatible with Kyiv's insistence on negotiations based on the current line of contact. Recent diplomatic exchanges, including June 2026 messaging between the leaders, underscored the deadlock, with no breakthroughs in U.S.-mediated talks or shifts in battlefield dynamics altering these stances through mid-2026. Traders price the "No" outcome at 95 percent, reflecting the entrenched positions and absence of credible near-term catalysts for Ukrainian concession before 2027.
Експериментальне резюме, згенероване ШІ з посиланням на дані Polymarket. Це не торгова порада і не впливає на вирішення цього ринку. · ОновленоWill Ukraine agree to give up the rest of Donbas before 2027?
Will Ukraine agree to give up the rest of Donbas before 2027?
5% шанс
$148,192 Обс.
$148,192 Обс.
Dec 31, 2026
5% шанс
$148,192 Обс.
$148,192 Обс.
Dec 31, 2026
This market will resolve to "Yes" if a deal in which Ukraine agrees to cede de facto control of all major cities under their control in the Donetsk and Luhansk Oblasts is reached between the Russian Federation and Ukraine by December 31, 2026, 11:59 PM ET. Otherwise, this market will resolve to “No”.
For the purposes of this market, major cities under Ukrainian control include the following: Kramatorsk, Sloviansk, Kostiantynivka, Druzhkivka, and Pokrovsk.
The deal must be a publicly announced mutual agreement or otherwise confirmed by an overwhelming consensus of credible reporting.
If such an agreement is officially reached before the resolution date, this market will resolve to "Yes", regardless of if/when the agreement goes into effect.
Any agreement which cedes de facto military control of the listed cities will qualify regardless of if Ukraine formally maintains its claim to sovereignty. For example, the 1999 Kumanovo Military Technical Agreement, in which Yugoslavia agreed to pull military forces out of Kosovo but did not recognize Kosovo’s autonomy or independence would qualify for a 'Yes' resolution.
A Ukrainian agreement to cede de facto military control, will qualify regardless of the group/entity which replaces them.
Only territory ceded as part of a diplomatic process or agreement will qualify. If Russia captures these cities through military action it will not qualify for a “Yes” resolution.
The primary resolution source for this market will be an official announcement by Ukraine and/or the Russian Federation, however, an overwhelming consensus of credible reporting confirming an agreement has been reached will also qualify.Ukraine's leadership has maintained a firm rejection of ceding the remaining Ukrainian-controlled portions of Donbas—roughly 20 percent of Donetsk—as a precondition for any ceasefire or settlement, viewing the fortified defensive lines as essential to national security. President Zelenskyy has repeatedly stated that unilateral withdrawal would require a national referendum, which polls indicate would fail, while Russian demands for full regional control remain unchanged and incompatible with Kyiv's insistence on negotiations based on the current line of contact. Recent diplomatic exchanges, including June 2026 messaging between the leaders, underscored the deadlock, with no breakthroughs in U.S.-mediated talks or shifts in battlefield dynamics altering these stances through mid-2026. Traders price the "No" outcome at 95 percent, reflecting the entrenched positions and absence of credible near-term catalysts for Ukrainian concession before 2027.
This market will resolve to "Yes" if a deal in which Ukraine agrees to cede de facto control of all major cities under their control in the Donetsk and Luhansk Oblasts is reached between the Russian Federation and Ukraine by December 31, 2026, 11:59 PM ET. Otherwise, this market will resolve to “No”.
For the purposes of this market, major cities under Ukrainian control include the following: Kramatorsk, Sloviansk, Kostiantynivka, Druzhkivka, and Pokrovsk.
The deal must be a publicly announced mutual agreement or otherwise confirmed by an overwhelming consensus of credible reporting.
If such an agreement is officially reached before the resolution date, this market will resolve to "Yes", regardless of if/when the agreement goes into effect.
Any agreement which cedes de facto military control of the listed cities will qualify regardless of if Ukraine formally maintains its claim to sovereignty. For example, the 1999 Kumanovo Military Technical Agreement, in which Yugoslavia agreed to pull military forces out of Kosovo but did not recognize Kosovo’s autonomy or independence would qualify for a 'Yes' resolution.
A Ukrainian agreement to cede de facto military control, will qualify regardless of the group/entity which replaces them.
Only territory ceded as part of a diplomatic process or agreement will qualify. If Russia captures these cities through military action it will not qualify for a “Yes” resolution.
The primary resolution source for this market will be an official announcement by Ukraine and/or the Russian Federation, however, an overwhelming consensus of credible reporting confirming an agreement has been reached will also qualify.
For the purposes of this market, major cities under Ukrainian control include the following: Kramatorsk, Sloviansk, Kostiantynivka, Druzhkivka, and Pokrovsk.
The deal must be a publicly announced mutual agreement or otherwise confirmed by an overwhelming consensus of credible reporting.
If such an agreement is officially reached before the resolution date, this market will resolve to "Yes", regardless of if/when the agreement goes into effect.
Any agreement which cedes de facto military control of the listed cities will qualify regardless of if Ukraine formally maintains its claim to sovereignty. For example, the 1999 Kumanovo Military Technical Agreement, in which Yugoslavia agreed to pull military forces out of Kosovo but did not recognize Kosovo’s autonomy or independence would qualify for a 'Yes' resolution.
A Ukrainian agreement to cede de facto military control, will qualify regardless of the group/entity which replaces them.
Only territory ceded as part of a diplomatic process or agreement will qualify. If Russia captures these cities through military action it will not qualify for a “Yes” resolution.
The primary resolution source for this market will be an official announcement by Ukraine and/or the Russian Federation, however, an overwhelming consensus of credible reporting confirming an agreement has been reached will also qualify.
Ринок відкрито: Nov 5, 2025, 1:05 PM ET
Обсяг
$148,192Дата завершення
Dec 31, 2026Ринок відкрито
Nov 5, 2025, 1:05 PM ETResolver
0x65070BE91...This market will resolve to "Yes" if a deal in which Ukraine agrees to cede de facto control of all major cities under their control in the Donetsk and Luhansk Oblasts is reached between the Russian Federation and Ukraine by December 31, 2026, 11:59 PM ET. Otherwise, this market will resolve to “No”.
For the purposes of this market, major cities under Ukrainian control include the following: Kramatorsk, Sloviansk, Kostiantynivka, Druzhkivka, and Pokrovsk.
The deal must be a publicly announced mutual agreement or otherwise confirmed by an overwhelming consensus of credible reporting.
If such an agreement is officially reached before the resolution date, this market will resolve to "Yes", regardless of if/when the agreement goes into effect.
Any agreement which cedes de facto military control of the listed cities will qualify regardless of if Ukraine formally maintains its claim to sovereignty. For example, the 1999 Kumanovo Military Technical Agreement, in which Yugoslavia agreed to pull military forces out of Kosovo but did not recognize Kosovo’s autonomy or independence would qualify for a 'Yes' resolution.
A Ukrainian agreement to cede de facto military control, will qualify regardless of the group/entity which replaces them.
Only territory ceded as part of a diplomatic process or agreement will qualify. If Russia captures these cities through military action it will not qualify for a “Yes” resolution.
The primary resolution source for this market will be an official announcement by Ukraine and/or the Russian Federation, however, an overwhelming consensus of credible reporting confirming an agreement has been reached will also qualify.Ukraine's leadership has maintained a firm rejection of ceding the remaining Ukrainian-controlled portions of Donbas—roughly 20 percent of Donetsk—as a precondition for any ceasefire or settlement, viewing the fortified defensive lines as essential to national security. President Zelenskyy has repeatedly stated that unilateral withdrawal would require a national referendum, which polls indicate would fail, while Russian demands for full regional control remain unchanged and incompatible with Kyiv's insistence on negotiations based on the current line of contact. Recent diplomatic exchanges, including June 2026 messaging between the leaders, underscored the deadlock, with no breakthroughs in U.S.-mediated talks or shifts in battlefield dynamics altering these stances through mid-2026. Traders price the "No" outcome at 95 percent, reflecting the entrenched positions and absence of credible near-term catalysts for Ukrainian concession before 2027.
This market will resolve to "Yes" if a deal in which Ukraine agrees to cede de facto control of all major cities under their control in the Donetsk and Luhansk Oblasts is reached between the Russian Federation and Ukraine by December 31, 2026, 11:59 PM ET. Otherwise, this market will resolve to “No”.
For the purposes of this market, major cities under Ukrainian control include the following: Kramatorsk, Sloviansk, Kostiantynivka, Druzhkivka, and Pokrovsk.
The deal must be a publicly announced mutual agreement or otherwise confirmed by an overwhelming consensus of credible reporting.
If such an agreement is officially reached before the resolution date, this market will resolve to "Yes", regardless of if/when the agreement goes into effect.
Any agreement which cedes de facto military control of the listed cities will qualify regardless of if Ukraine formally maintains its claim to sovereignty. For example, the 1999 Kumanovo Military Technical Agreement, in which Yugoslavia agreed to pull military forces out of Kosovo but did not recognize Kosovo’s autonomy or independence would qualify for a 'Yes' resolution.
A Ukrainian agreement to cede de facto military control, will qualify regardless of the group/entity which replaces them.
Only territory ceded as part of a diplomatic process or agreement will qualify. If Russia captures these cities through military action it will not qualify for a “Yes” resolution.
The primary resolution source for this market will be an official announcement by Ukraine and/or the Russian Federation, however, an overwhelming consensus of credible reporting confirming an agreement has been reached will also qualify.
For the purposes of this market, major cities under Ukrainian control include the following: Kramatorsk, Sloviansk, Kostiantynivka, Druzhkivka, and Pokrovsk.
The deal must be a publicly announced mutual agreement or otherwise confirmed by an overwhelming consensus of credible reporting.
If such an agreement is officially reached before the resolution date, this market will resolve to "Yes", regardless of if/when the agreement goes into effect.
Any agreement which cedes de facto military control of the listed cities will qualify regardless of if Ukraine formally maintains its claim to sovereignty. For example, the 1999 Kumanovo Military Technical Agreement, in which Yugoslavia agreed to pull military forces out of Kosovo but did not recognize Kosovo’s autonomy or independence would qualify for a 'Yes' resolution.
A Ukrainian agreement to cede de facto military control, will qualify regardless of the group/entity which replaces them.
Only territory ceded as part of a diplomatic process or agreement will qualify. If Russia captures these cities through military action it will not qualify for a “Yes” resolution.
The primary resolution source for this market will be an official announcement by Ukraine and/or the Russian Federation, however, an overwhelming consensus of credible reporting confirming an agreement has been reached will also qualify.
Обсяг
$148,192Дата завершення
Dec 31, 2026Ринок відкрито
Nov 5, 2025, 1:05 PM ETResolver
0x65070BE91...Ukraine's leadership has maintained a firm rejection of ceding the remaining Ukrainian-controlled portions of Donbas—roughly 20 percent of Donetsk—as a precondition for any ceasefire or settlement, viewing the fortified defensive lines as essential to national security. President Zelenskyy has repeatedly stated that unilateral withdrawal would require a national referendum, which polls indicate would fail, while Russian demands for full regional control remain unchanged and incompatible with Kyiv's insistence on negotiations based on the current line of contact. Recent diplomatic exchanges, including June 2026 messaging between the leaders, underscored the deadlock, with no breakthroughs in U.S.-mediated talks or shifts in battlefield dynamics altering these stances through mid-2026. Traders price the "No" outcome at 95 percent, reflecting the entrenched positions and absence of credible near-term catalysts for Ukrainian concession before 2027.
Експериментальне резюме, згенероване ШІ з посиланням на дані Polymarket. Це не торгова порада і не впливає на вирішення цього ринку. · Оновлено
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