Recent diplomatic contacts between U.S. and Russian officials, including envoy meetings in Washington and Moscow, have raised prospects for renewed arms control discussions following New START's February 2026 expiration. However, the Kremlin has emphasized that talks remain long overdue and would require extended expert negotiations, with progress tied to resolving differences over the Ukraine conflict. U.S. calls for trilateral talks including China continue to face rejection from Beijing, while Russia has signaled openness to limited leader-level discussions possibly at the November 2026 APEC summit. These developments, alongside ongoing energy and sanctions-related overtures, shape trader views on the timeline for any verifiable bilateral nuclear agreement.